The United States’ AfPakstrategy has entered the tent of Indo-American partnership. Its presence upsetsIndian pundits and adds to their frustration that Barack Obama isn’t living upto their expectations of pursuing a robust “containment” strategy toward Chinawith India as “counterweight”. Much angst is visible on newspaper columns.
But then, India showed naivety in overlooking that the US hadcomplex motives in the “war on terror”. The myopic view in 2001-2002 stemmedlargely from a misplaced triumphalism that the Taliban and Pakistan were beingthrashed by the US to the infinite advantage of India. The Pakistani militaryably resurrected the Taliban by 2005 and began asserting its “legitimate”interests. And the US inexorably came knocking on the doors of the Pakistanigenerals in Rawalpindi.
The Obama administration is entitled to pursue Americaninterests first and foremost and is in desperate need of cooperation from thePakistani military to devise a decent “exit strategy” – although it is probablyas much cognisant of the Pakistani doublespeak as we are. India could andshould have been a serious player had our diplomacy not allowed ourunderstanding with Russia and Iran to wither away through the past 9-yearperiod. Cut off from Afghanistan geographically, India’s capacity to influencethe alignment of forces within Afghanistan is also limited.
What is the criticality of Pakistan’s role? The US wouldfactor in the following:
– Geographydictates that Pakistan will always have a major role in ensuring the stabilityof Afghanistan.
– Afghanistan’ssubsistence economy cannot do without trade and transit provided byPakistan.
– Afghanpolitical elites view Pakistan as their most important interlocutor.
– Afghaninsurgency is Pashtun-driven and tribal kinships across the Pakistan-Afghanistanborder are historical.
– Fourmillion Afghans live in Pakistan.
– Pakistanwields decisive influence over a range of insurgent groups.
– Theterrorist nexus includes Pakistani groups and the stabilization of Afghanistanbecomes incomplete and unviable in isolation.
– Terroristgroups which continue to threaten the security of the West operate out ofPakistan.
– Pakistanhappens to be the vital supply route for the US and other NATO forces inAfghanistan.
– Pakistanhas heavily invested in men and material through the 30-year Afghan civil warand is every bit determined to influence any settlement.
– Pakistanis bent on gaining “strategic depth” in Afghanistan and keeping Indianinfluence in strict check while at the same time promoting itself as the gatewayfor the US geo-strategy toward Central Asia.
– Pakistanhas built up formats of cooperation with countries neighbouring Afghanistan orwhich influence the situation – Iran, Turkey, Russia, Uzbekistan andTajikistan, etc.
– WithChina, Pakistan enjoys “all-weather friendship”.
In short, Indian pundits are being naïve when they clamour USshould disengage from Pakistan and seek out its “natural ally”, i.e., India.The David Headley saga is a stunning reminder that Washington maneuvers withina matrix where its interests tightly overlap.
Obama is determined to drawdown the American “combat mission”with effect from July 2011 while putting the US and NATO’s commitment inAfghanistan (and Central Asia) on a long-term footing. Essentially, the UShopes to consolidate its military presence in the region, which is integral toits global strategies, but without the bloodshed that affects western publicopinion. The future of the NATO – and the US’ trans-Atlantic ties – is atstake.
Therefore, Pakistan will remain a pivotal relationship for theUS. It is a fallacy to think the calculus in which the US-Pakistan alliancemoves is merely “Haqqani-centric”. It has several intriguing, interlockingtemplates: China’s rise, Russia and Iran’s surge, America’s determination todominate Asia, NATO’s future as a global security organisation, energysecurity, nuclear proliferation, control of mineral resources, etc.
Pakistani diplomacy is astutely tapping into the geopolitics.For Pakistan, which is a nuclear power, the core issue is India’s trajectory asemerging power. Pakistan expects the US to correct its “tilt” toward India,conclude a nuclear deal also with Pakistan and help the Pakistani militarymaintain “strategic balance” vis-à-vis India. Pakistan doesn’t accept India’sprimacy in securing the “global commons” between Aden and Singapore.
The US has begun discussions with Pakistan on a nuclear deal,committed itself to supporting Pakistan’s “defence needs” and is supplyingweapon systems to Pakistan that have nothing to do with hunting down al-Qaeda,and Pakistan figures as a top recipient of American aid – all these testify tothe US sensitivity to Pakistani concerns.
In the near-term, US dependence on Pakistan can only increaseif Afghan peace talks are to gain traction. Looking ahead, Pakistan’s role inthe post-settlement phase becomes even more critical to an orderly terminationof the US’ combat mission. Once NATO forces leave the battlefield, US expectsthe Pakistani military to exercise restraining influence on the Taliban so thatthe latter do not torpedo the settlement or usurp power and create an uglycrisis.
In the medium term, US is quietly, persistently working onenergy projects to tap the Caspian and Central Asian reserves. The revival ofthe Silk Road leading from Herat to Kandahar and Quetta and further on toGwadar holds the key to transporting Afghanistan’s multi-trillion dollarmineral wealth to the world market. Gwadar’s role as the gateway to CentralAsia makes the US a stakeholder in Pakistan’s long-term stability and welfare.The necessary underpinnings are being crafted – Afghan-Pakistan Trade &Transit Agreement, NATO-Afghan strategic cooperation agreement, US-Afghan“vision statement” and US-Afghan strategic partnership agreement.
At the NATO summit in Lisbon on November 19-20, the AfPak strategy will morph into atransitional phase (2011-2014) leading to the alliance’s long-term habitationin the region. The NATO’s role as the “protector” of the Silk Road will be ofprofound significance to regional security. The Pakistani military being theprincipal interlocutor for the US and NATO, the control of the generals in Rawalpindiover foreign and security policies can only increase.
Indeed, the US has to “earn” Pakistani goodwill. China eyesGwadar as its entrepot to the worldmarket bypassing the Malacca Straits and the choices that Pakistan makes willhave great bearing on the US regional strategies – in particular, NATO’s rolein the region and the plans to evacuate the multi-trillion dollar worth mineralwealth, which China, too, is gearing up to exploit.
In sum, the US’ capacity to influence the Pakistani militaryleadership’s “India-centric” mind-set remains limited by realpolitik, while India continues to face grave terrorist threat.This contradiction cannot be resolved without the settlement of India-Pakistandifferences over Kashmir, for which a US push is probable in a near future.Meanwhile, Pakistan’s ability to balance its relationship with the US and Chinain the “new great game” gives it seamless leverage in the geopolitics of theregion. Clearly, India needs to work hard on the Sino-Indian normalisation inorder for our regional policies to be optimal.
What lies ahead? By a bizarre stroke of irony, the threat tothe West’s “homeland security” has lately increased and the reports say thedreaded former al-Qaeda military chief Saif al-Adel (“sword of justice”) hassneaked back into Waziristan and got back his old job, and that Ilyas Kashmiri,who used to work for the ISI, is now a rising star within al-Qaeda. Theenormity of the Indian concerns, being ISI’s next-door neighbour, is not indoubt.
But then, Pakistani military’s ingenuity, too, is legion toleverage precisely such misty phenomena as an al-Qaeda “revivalism” to extracteven more concessions from Washington. On balance, the AfPak differences and the sense of bitterness within the Indianestablishment over the Headley saga certainly cast a shadow on the climate ofIndia-US ties.
It just can’t be otherwise. On the other hand, Obama is agifted politician and a brilliant intellectual. Trust him to comprehend themeaning of India’s rise. The AfPakshadow cannot dent this political reality while India’s growth potentialremains what it is today. Besides, Indian diplomacy is not lacking inresilience, and the US would know that.
We may expect some major Indian initiatives to restore tieswith Iran. Four meetings between Indian and Chinese leaderships have beenscheduled in almost-successive weeks flanking Obama’s visit. Doesn’t thatsignify something special? The keynote address by the National Security AdvisorShiv Shankar Menon at the 75th jubilee celebrations of the NationalDefence College did underscore new thinking.
