The attempts of the anti-governmental coup in Egypt are beginning to take shape. In the country with faint likeness of democracy two antagonistic movements have clashed: Western progressivism and Muslim fundamentalism. Amid mass poverty and lack of real political freedoms both movements came to grass thanks to the self-organization of the society with the help of the Internet and social networks. Challenging the leadership the legal liberal-democratic opposition, and underground "the Muslim Brothers" have managed to use mobilization potential of the information technologies to urge people to come to the streets. Now when the situation begins to calm down we can see the motives of the actors.
Who stands behind the Cairo revolution? By all counts the legal opposition is not able to widely use the US’ support. Over decades of close cooperation between Cairo and Washington Egypt’s pro-American orientation was compromised and it is no longer possible for the US to go on with its “date” revolution relying on a puppet government. This is the reason for the US’ dialogue with Omar Suleiman and Hosni Mubarak, when the US officials urge them to choose for "a civilized way of appeasement ". Considering that the bet on El Baradei was bound to fail from the very start, the US has no other tools to influence the situation. Today the legal Egyptian opposition is holding on only thanks to the inertness of the first wave and certain financial support from abroad, which does not exceed the “criminal level". That means this support is not counted in billions of dollars, which would make the whole country protest. As for this part of the opposition Mubarak was right expecting that it will soon run out of steam. His plan of political reforms would have worked if it was not for the Muslim brothers.
The Muslim brothers remain a thing in itself and it seems that they are preparing new surprise for the country on the Nile. Their representative Essam Erian said that the brotherhood is a peaceful organization, which acts under the constitution and plans to become part of the wider opposition. But it seems to good be true considering the ultimatum the brothers delivered to Mubarak – he should resign in a week. It smells like there is a vague threat behind it.
In order to bring citizens who are far from Islam radicalism to Tahrir square the Muslim brothers simply had to act as law-abiding organization. They are clever and long-sighted. But let us not forget that over decades of its existence the organization used terror many times and caused a lot of bloodshed. Can it transform into a peaceful organization so quickly? I don’t think so. Hosni Mubarak’s stubbornness to accept the terms of the Brotherhood could have changed the situation drastically. On seeing that the door for legal political steps is closed the Brotherhood could respond with violence and return to using terror. For the moment thisis not advantageous for them to explode bombs in tourist centers or crowded markets. But are mass murders in up-town districts of in the capital better?
How many terrorist attack would it have taken to make Mubarak resign? One, two, three? Not many in any case. If it had happened the plans of the authorities to resolve the situation peacefully would have been ruined. It would not help the Muslim Brothers to seize power but this would have made the first precedent in the history when terrorism managed to ruin the plans for reforms in a relatively prosperous country. In this case the terrorism would have demonstrated its might and proved that it is part of big politics in the époque of postmodern. May be this is the main goal of the Muslim Brothers. Meanwhile the situation in Egypt remains tense…
