I find it interesting that much of America’s response to the election of Vladimir Putin’s election concerns its honesty. Mr. Putin himself admits there was some fraud but most observers concede that he would have won easily anyway.
Both Canada – presently in an election fraud case – and the US should be too embarrassed to deal with that issue especially given their own electoral peccadilloes where in recent years three presidential elections have been highly questionable. Indeed we might have been spared George W. Bush had not the Republican stuffed Supreme Court upset 100 years or more of law holding election laws and their enforcement as matters for individual the states.
Indeed, when you think that the country was a heart attack away from seeing a President Spiro, a President Dan Quail or a President Sarah Palin one must laugh aloud when our neighbours to the South spin out at other’s elections.
Canada is a little better but not much. Under our grossly unfair “first past the post” elections 55% of eligible voters give 40% of the vote to a party that thus gets 100% of the power; meaning that I for one rate, am inclined to hold my tongue when talking or writing about the systems of others.
What the world should speculate is what effect electing Mr. Putin will have on other affairs. Russia is a great power that’s been licking its wounds since the USSR, to the surprise of many, cancelled the Warsaw Pact and permitted many countries hitherto satellites or ”republics” to do as they wished within their borders. Since it has been said many times that Moscow has always craved safe borders and warm water ports, at least the former, understandably, remains of critical importance. When you consider the shocking Russo-Japanese war, the humiliation of World War I and the terrible price paid in the Second World War as well as getting thumped in Afghanistan, it’s not surprising to suggest that Mr. Putin will flex Russia’s muscles in days to come, something not done since Brezhnev. Churchill, in musing about what the USSR was all about and he summed it up succinctly and accurately, “Russia’s national interest”. That’s as true now as it was then.
What can we expect? First off, Russia’s military will be beefed up as well as its nuclear capability. It’s clearly Putin’s policy to give Russia the military heft that it once had. Unhappily for the planet, deliverable nuclear capability is how the score is kept and Putin will see to it that Russia will be a feared nation once more.
What is important is that Russia, like a dog pees on a tree, will re-establish its credentials I’m not saying that Russia will overrun Eastern Europe and retake its other “republics” such as the Baltic States, Belarus or Ukraine. Those birds left the flock 20 years ago and to mix a metaphor it’s too late to shut the barn door when the horse is gone.
There are serious problems in Russia’s west. I have written about this several times – the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Association (NATO), and EU. It must gall Mr. Putin to note that NATO was set up as a defence mechanism in 1949 which the Soviet countered with the Warsaw Pact. Since the Warsaw Pact is functus, why, then, is there still a NATO, now aggressively involved in what used to be USSR satellites? The action of NATO strikes me as similar to Israel putting Israeli settlements in conquered land – in each case it’s assumed that once accomplished they cannot be overturned. On this western border Mr. Putin has a special tool of persuasion – many of those countries and beyond rely upon the energy giant Gazprom to keep them from freezing in the winter.
President Putin will not act hastily because he doesn’t have to. He has lots of time. Russia has lost a great deal of clout in the Middle East and just days ago, President Putin indicated the possibility of intervention in Syria which I think tipped his hand. Iran’s goings-on are a very uncomfortable for Russia since Russia has encouraged its nuclear policies. I believe that might change but it surely will be linked to Israel. It is here that President Obama or, perhaps a Republican leader, must show some backbone and, if need be, use financial force to bring the Israeli “right” to its senses.
Israel has been getting away with murder, literally. If she attacks Iran with a pre-emptive strike Mr. Putin will be in a bind. No matter what the provocation; damned if he supports Iran, damned if he doesn’t. I do look for him to put considerable pressure on Iran to halt its quest for nuclear arms. Part of this pressure will be on the US to lean on Israel to make a firm deal with Palestine and Syria, in each case meaning the return of conquered land.
What should get Washington’s attention is that Russia will return to the Middle East where the Arab Spring is putting a lot of new players into the game. The big question is what Russia will do if Saudi Arabia overthrows the medieval Royal Family which surely can’t be long in coming. The long and the short of it is that the entire region has created the most volatile situation since the Cuba Missiles crisis in 1963. Moreover the Middle East situation looks a lot like old Yugoslavia did where you can’t tell the players without a scorecard.
Let’s look at Russia and China. Until the USSR self destructed, relations between the two were frosty to say the least. Much of that was ideology with China becoming, in Russia’s mind, a dangerous heretic. Now each country has authoritarianism in charge with scarcely any strands of political philosophical strains to be seen.
What about Russia’s relationship with the US? This depends upon the US election next November. If any of the current lot of Republican candidates gets in, I, for one, will be fingering my worry beads. We will return to the Reagan days which, there not been Mikhail Gorbachev, one shudders to think of what an ongoing Reagan style White House would have brought. (Ronald Reagan has been called an “amiable dunce” and I wonder why the adjective.) If President Obama is re-elected, chances of a good relationship – perhaps I should say a better one, looks promising.
Russia went through a process of humiliation which brought no relief from the US – on the contrary America contributed to the angst. Thus the overwhelming concern is what will Russia be like with a strong, disciplined president who, with at least 6 years ahead of him, will brand his image on national and world affairs.
It won’t happen but the US could do itself and the world a great favour by President Obama meeting President Putin as soon as possible. Alas, we will probably have to wait until after the election for this to happen. Such a meeting would, in my view, have a result comparable to Nixon’s journey to China, in 1972 or Anwar Sadat’s visit to Menachem Begin in 1977 – provided it’s done promptly. If handled properly, America and Russia could almost become friends and the survival of the planet – as serious as that – may depend upon that coming to pass.
