While getting closer to parliamentary and, as has finally become known, presidential elections on May 6, the heat is on the rise in Serbia. But the major scoops and revelations, that normally appear in a pre-election period, are not centered around political or social-economic programs of the parties now, but rather around the situation in Kosovo. The issue is what policies will be adopted by the new/old Serbian authorities towards self-proclaimed independence of the territory, which is defined by the constitution in force as “an integral part of Serbia”?
The polls may be contradictory but by and large they say the two leading competitors of the pre-election campaign – the Democratic Party led by Boris Tadic and the breakaway Serbian Radical Party led by Tomislav Nikolic have more or less equal chances. The gap is 24% to 40% for the Democratic Party and 20% to 43% for “the Progressives”.
The Factor Plus agency’s estimate appears to be the most precise so far. It says the Democratic Party of Tadic wll get 29% of votes, “the Progressives” led by Nikolic – 33%. If so, Serbia is on the way to intense sidelines talks after May 6. Like it was before in 2008, it may bring about schemes that would be unexpected or even run contrary to common sense.
But it was not the polls that brought about a bombshell effect in the given situation, but rather a Pristina based influential Albanian language “Express” newspaper report. It said Boris Tadic and the leader of self-proclaimed Kosovo government Kosovo leader Hasim Taci would meet each other in June, that is soon after the elections. According to the newspaper’s anonymous government source the meeting will take place in London or Brussels.
Later other Kosovo media outlets added the capital of Bosnia Sarajevo to the list of places the event may possibly take place in. Formally Bosnia and Herzegovina doesn’t recognize Kosovo’s independence, but the close ties between its Muslim leadership and the leaders of Kosovo’s Albanian separatists is an open secret. Newspaper Zeri reports the possibility of the meeting stands “a good chance” according to its sources in Brussels.
The reaction from Belgrade didn’t take long. The Tadic office told Tanjug, the Serb information agency, that any possibility of meeting Taci was excluded. The same information was published by “Express” newspaper. Zeri noted no other reaction was expected on the part of the presidential office taking into account the Serbia was facing coming parliamentary and local elections.
The Kosovo radical opposition headed by the leader of Self-Determination movement Albin Kurti also came out against the meeting, saying unambiguiosly Kosovo has nothing to talk about with Belgrade till it recognizes its independence.
Then why make public such a sensational news and to what extent it matches the truth? Actually the Kosovo media has already had experience of making public the information thoroughly concealed from compatriots by the Serbian authorities. In particular, that’s what happened with border management agreement signed by Belgrade and Kosovo teams. Back then the Serbian delegation headed by Borislav Stefanovic actually accepted all demands put forward by the opposing side and it was kept in silence for a few weeks. Probably the information on the Boris Tadic and Hashim Taci meeting is true though the sides haven’t come to accord concerning the time or the place.
As is known the EU formally granted candidate status to Serbia at the beginning of March this year. It goes on exerting pressure on Belgrade demanding “the normalization” of its relations with Kosovo. Ernst Reichel, the German ambassador to Kosovo, confirmed this unswerving stance some time ago, saying it was important for Germany that Pristina and Belgrade “build good neighborly relations and to cooperate like other EU member states”.
It’s all clear about the Berlin and Brussels’ interest in the meeting taking place. To great extent the Serbian stance will be determined by the election results. The governing coalition holding power may perceive the vote results as people’s support for the integration into the European Union as soon as possible and at any price. Meeting the Kosovo premier will match it very well. No “status” identification plates or state flags on the table, “obscure” wording of final communiqué etc, all these things will help to observe “decency”. No doubt the Serbian authorities will use the scandalous Kosovo resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on September 8, 2010 as a reason for holding such a meeting. The document in question welcomes the EU readiness “to facilitate a process of dialogue between between Pristina and Belgrade” in the interests of cooperation and “achieving progress on the path to the EU and improving the lives of people.”
The Kosovo media unveiled the fact that a personal meeting between Tadic and Taci is scheduled for June. It’ll cap the climax of “creeping” recognition of Kosovo as an independent state de facto if not de jure. The elections over it’ll be too late to lock the stable-door after the horse is stolen…
On April 4 President Tadic made public his intent to resign in order to seek nomination for the top state position on the very same day the Serbian People’s Skupshina (parliament) election is going to take place. It corroborates the fact that the plan is under consideration. Tadic wants “to forestall” the events and use the effect of the Brussels decision taken in March to make Serbia a formal candidate for EU membership to his own advantage.
The weeks long discussions took place in Serbia concerning the issue of holding parliamentary and presidential election at the same time. According to the Focus Plus agency, 38% were initially ready to vote for president and members of parliament, 46% saw no need in early presidential elections, 16% had no opinion. The same agency introduces to even more important data – the citizens support for the government’s European integration policy. The result is eloquent: “the eurosceptics” prevail over “the eurooptimists”. To make it precise: 48% support the government’s stand on the issue, 28% are strongly against, 24% are against joining the EU “at any price” – that is at the expense of surrendering Kosovo. Under the given circumstances the impending vote will be an attempt by President Tadic and his pro-Western like-minded supporters to get a “carte blanche” to take decisions on Kosovo.
In case Boris Tadic is re-elected the Kosovo Serbs and Russia will be the main losers. The first ones – because the new/old Serbian authorities will have their hands untied to achieve further agreements with the Kosovo Albanian leaders concerning the demands put forward by Brussels. In the case of Moscow the doors for extension of political and economic cooperation with Belgrade will be closed due to the very same commitment to Brussels. In particular it will affect the South Stream gas pipeline project and Russian investments in Serbian privatization program.
No need to stretch the truth: there is no way the Tadic pre-election program can combine the two things: “the way to European integration” and “preservation of the country’s integrity”.
