It seems that the Pirate Party Germany, or simply the Pirates, has been trying to justify its name by taking away parliament seats from the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the Left, the Greens and even from the traditionally leading Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) in the same parliamentary group, also known as CDU/CSU or the Union. In the 2009 Bundestag elections the Pirates failed to pass a 5% threshold and won only 2% of voter support. The 2011 elections came as a surprise: in spring land vote in Baden-Württemberg, Bremen, Hamburg (in February), Rheinland-Pfalz and Mecklenburg they again got 2% (or even less) but were lucky to receive nearly 9% in Berlin in September. Those elections let the Pirates- for the first time ever- have 15 seats in the land parliament.

Such a success drew public attention. Although skeptics said the Pirates would not ever win so much support anywhere outside the capital, the party got 7.4% in the western state of Saarland half a year later. After that hardly anybody had doubts that the Pirates would successfully ‘storm’ the governments in Schleswig-Holstein and in North Rhine-Westphalia where the elections are set for May. In a table below you can see the statistics data on the results achieved by the Pirates in different elections. In sections related to Bavaria, Lower Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg the Pirates are not listed separately but are included in the ‘other parties’ column (with the highest result of 16% reported in Bavaria).
 

What is the secret behind the success of the Pirates? How did they manage to attract so many new members in such a short period of time? In 2010 the party had only 12,000 members, but now they are more than 25,000, while the rest parties are facing an outflow of supporters. Will the Pirates stay long in German politics? Will the existing parliament be expanded from five to six parties or their number will remain unchanged, with the Pirates still enjoying the defeat of the weakening Liberal Democrats? Will the Pirates, who originally focused primarily on the civil right to information privacy, reforms of copyright and other Internet-related issues, bring anything new to the country`s political life? These questions will be asked very often until Germany approaches the September 2013 general elections to the Bundestag.

There are six agencies in Germany dealing with opinion polls.  (1) “If there were elections to the Bundestag next Sunday, I would vote for…” – this scheme is used to monitor the parties` popularity. The latest polls show that voters have become more uncertain about their choice, thus making it more difficult to predict the outcome of the elections. The leading sociologists admit that the success of the Pirate Party could not have been predicted. (2)

A poll by Infratest dimap shows that in 2009 the FDP was at the peak of fame with 17% of voter support, with the Left and the Greens left behind, but in autumn of 2009 their popularity started falling; since the early 2011 the Liberals have remained on the brink of a 5% threshold, losing all regional elections, except in Baden-Württemberg. It means that the party is facing the risk of failure at the upcoming Bundestag elections, for the first time in the entire post-war history.

The Greens were showing very good results for two consecutive years; last summer it looked like that they would definitely enjoy equal rights with the SDP, which by that time had seen its positions a bit weakened. Then the Greens were preparing to name their candidate for the post of Chancellor, but today they no longer have such an opportunity even in a coalition with the SDP. Starting from June, 2011, when they got only 1% less than the SDP, the Greens have seen their approval ratings falling to nearly approach the Pirates this month. Though a bit slower the Left Party is also losing its popularity. For the fourth year running the Conservatives attract not more than 40% of the vote, while the SDP rarely manages to pass a 30% threshold.

In view of this, the success of the Pirates can be seen almost as a triumph, although it directly results from their rivals` failure. Taking into consideration that the Pirates claim that their aim is to ‘put the existing political structure in doubt’, we may conclude that their success reflects the public disapproval of the current political system. A voter has no confidence in politicians: 50-60% of Germans thinks that none of the parties can solve the problems their country is facing these days. If so, why not support the Pirates, who at least do not lie that they know how to cope with the eurozone crisis? Sociologists also say that many voters like the image of the Pirate Party, which reminds them of childhood, when pirates were believed to be romantic wanderers. (3) Others sympathize with the Pirates because this party demands the introduction of regulations against the bribery of representatives and the ratification of the UN convention against corruption by the German government. Also there are voters who like the way the Pirates dress for their meetings (some of them wear black cocked hats). Protests are also fueled by the fact that an initiative of the Union could be approved to ban politicians from political debates if they refuse to disagree with the course of their party. Now airtime for the debates is strictly regulated for each party: the Union has 23 minutes, the SDP has 14 minutes, while the Liberals, the Greens and the Left have 7 minutes each. The list of politicians taking part in the debates is submitted beforehand to the Bundestag president. These regulations cause anger of the Pirates, who insist on ordinary citizens having more opportunities to influence political decision making in their home country. Speaking during the party`s meeting in Offenbach in 2011, the Pirates` leader Sebastian Nerz criticized the government for failing to comply with democratic principles amid the crisis of the euro zone, for example, when functions are handed over from parliaments to heads of states and heads of governments. Besides, the Pirates are against some unspoken rules of the so-called political correctness, including those regulating gender quotas for high-profile jobs in public organizations.   Germany’s labour minister Ursula von der Leyen called for a 30% quota for women in all company boards. The Pirates say this is a very formalist approach to the issue.

The Pirate Party also attracts those who use to vote ‘against all’ or simply do not go to the polls. The number of such people is on the rise: in 1998 only 18% did not vote, while in 2009 there were 29% of them (here I mean the Bundestag elections). The turnout at the land elections is even worse: less than 50% go to vote in Saxony and in Mecklenburg. The Pirates have supporters among both the poor and the rich. People with different educational background and different interests and values choose the Pirate Party. This diversity helps the Pirate Party to stand out. Above all this, they are quite peaceable. Although they refuse to form a coalition with any other party, the party`s regional leaders say they could become a part of the existing political system. The party`s lead candidate in the North Rhine-Westphalia legislature, Joachim Paul, said that his party was ready to become part of the political establishment. (4) The Pirates are intended to fight for every vote during the 2013 land elections in Lower Saxony. (5)

Old parties are very opposed to the Pirates. The leader of the Greens, Cem Özdemir, called on his colleagues to stay calm, as he believes that sooner or later the Pirate Party will have to present a clear political program. Meanwhile, the Pirates seem to be comfortable with the 2006 platform, which is quite short and was amended only once after the meeting in Chemnitz in 2010. There is only one demand in the program authored by the Pirates: Internet freedom. All the rest points were ‘inherited’ from other parties, including the Greens, the Free Democrats, the Left…This, certainly, cannot but stir up more tensions between the rivals. Christain Lindner of the Free Democratic Party thinks that the Pirates should not be taken seriously since their words about freedom do not refer to anything broader than Internet-related issues.

Mr. Lindner is quite right, indeed: accepting the rules regulating the political life in Germany, the Pirates turn out to be real conformists. The fact that they are very intolerant to nationalist ideology speaks for itself: in today`s Germany any attempt to humiliate immigrants is equaled to prejudices and are subject to condemnation. In one of his interviews Sebastian Nerz said that he did not rule out for the former National Democratic Party members to join the Pirates. “Not every NPD member is a neo-Nazi”, he added. (6)

The Pirate Party already has enough potential to attract new blood to Germany`s political system but still is not strong enough to pose any threat to it.

(1) Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung, Infratest dimap.
(2) See interview with Forsa chief: Schuler Katharina. Die Piraten sind die neue Mitte/ Zeit, 10.04.2012.
(3) See interview with Forsa chief: Schuler Katharina. Die Piraten sind die neue Mitte/ Zeit, 10.04.2012.
(4) http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/:gruene-attackieren-piraten/70023068.html
(5) See interview with Andrew Neugebauer, chairman of the Pirate Party in Lower Saxony : dapd 18.04.2012.
(6) See interview with Nerz:  Johannes Wiedemann. "Jugendliche Naivität muss man auch verzeihen"/ Welt, 13.10.2011.