World
Rafe Mair
July 15, 2012
© Photo: Public domain

Since I proposed the title of this piece to my editor I began to ask if President Obama needed saving at all. Thus are the swings and roundabouts that confuse the US political scene. Indeed, Mitt Romney’s, first sally against the president came off so badly he has burnished the star of the Obama diadem, his medicare program. As we saw, in an extraordinary decision of the US Supreme Court the reliable “righty”, Chief Justice Roberts cast the deciding vote in favour of “Obamacare”.

I think this surprise vote had less to do with the issues at hand and a hell of a lot to do with politics. In the 2000 election the US Supreme Court decided in a clear Republican v Democrat split, that States couldn’t control their voting processes after all. This flew in the face of the settled law and brought the court into considerable disrepute. Sadly, the Supreme Court is partisan but this decision shocked that part of the nation that pays attention to this sort of thing and brought back memories of Franklin Roosevelt’s attempt to stack the Court with extra members, the extras being, surprise of his political persuasion.

Many, I included, see Chief Justice Roberts decision as a means of keeping the Court away from being an integral part of the 2012 election campaign which it certainly would have been with a different result, 

Romney came out swinging when the decision was announced overlooking two things – Obamacare has its fans, plenty of them but more importantly, the thing rock-ribbed Republicans hate about Obamacare is that it compels people to buy insurance and Romney’s own Massachusetts healthcare bill did precisely that. In a matter of moments he had scored two “own goals” and the President was much relieved to have his medicare still a big part of the campaign with his opponent having to state his case full of weasely “howevers”. (Don’t run to your dictionaries – weasely is a word I just made up and don’t you agree it’s a good one?)

For most of US modern history the vice presidential selection – made by the leader and dutifully confirmed by the convention – has been a casual matter leading to some pretty scary choices. Actually Dick Cheney’s selection wasn’t casual at all. President George Bush, not being a man for detail work, asked Cheney to canvass the options. After due consideration of the best candidates available Cheney decided that he was the best suited. On the broader aspect of things, many Americans still shudder at the thought there might have been a President Agnew, a President Quayle, or a President Palin and Mr. Obama, no doubt feeling that queasiness, in 2008 selected Joe Biden as a man who could actually step in and do the job.

What then will the President do at the Convention next September? Joe Biden will be 70 this year which is sort of a good news/bad news thing. The good thing is that not being a candidate in 2016 himself, his loyalty can be assured; the bad thing being that he might die in office meaning that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who might well be a Republican, would be next in line. 

The vice presidential selection is, however, traditionally selected for reasons quite outside his/her ability to lead the nation; The region represented is important, race and sex are issues, ability to deal with Congress (as in Kennedy selecting Lyndon Johnson) may be a deciding factor. As often as not the choice will end a party rift, Lyndon Johnson again being an example. Perhaps, as in the case of FDR selecting Harry Truman in 1944, it’s God only knows why.

Having said all that, my money, shakily handed over, would go to Joe Biden.

But what about Hillary Clinton? She is probably the only member of President Obama’s inner circle that has come out looking better than she went in. She is a woman which is finally becoming a fashionable criterion and she represents a powerful segment of the Democratic Party, married to a very popular, within Democrat circles at any rate, ex-president. She also represents one half of the bitterness of the 2008 Democratic race won by Mr. Obama. 

Of more importance than all this to Mr. Obama is that she would give him credibility and political smarts just when he needs it most. On the world scene she would be a big bonus.

There are two reasons Ms. Clinton might be the one – she vehemently denies she would take the job and most of the political smarty-pants in the media say that it can’t happen which are two of the usual reasons things do happen.

Age is a question – Ms. Clinton will be 70 in 2016 thus 74 by her second term should she win. I don’t think this bothers her any more than it bothered Ronald Reagan who was 69 when he took office. That she would like to be president is a given. Just as every foot-soldier, according to Napoleon, carried a marshal’s baton in his knapsack Ms. Clinton’s presidential ambitions presumably remain undiminished. 

Let us assume that Ms. Clinton does have lingering doubts about 2016, what if it appears to her that Obama needs serious help?’ What if Obama says to her – “let bygones be bygones … if Romney wins there goes the medicare you fought so hard for and I was able to bring in … Hillary I need you on the ticket”.

I, frankly, see this as a very real possibility. It was Ms. Clinton who worked so hard for medicare and failed so spectacularly to achieve it. It was her life’s ambition and I think she would bury all hatchets in order to preserve and enhance health care as the president so badly wants to do.

There is another, to me compelling argument, for this to happen. If Ms. Clinton sits this one out, what’s she going to do with herself for the next four years? She has ruled out continuing as Secretary of State and it’s time for new blood after 4 years. There is no convenient, at least no obvious convenient Senate seat open. If she were to be Vice-President she has a job which is not onerous, keeps her in the loop and in the public eye. In two years time she will have had enough time to evaluate her presidential ambitions and will have had a very good perch from which to examine what the 2011 presidential scene will look like.

Keeping the White House Democratic, preserving and enhancing medicare with lots of time and ability to survey the scene?

A powerful politician like Hillary Clinton does not give up that power and influence easily and while I wouldn’t bet the ranch, a buck or two on America’s version of the Iron Lady might not be amiss.

The views of individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture Foundation.
Can Hillary Save the Obama Presidency?

Since I proposed the title of this piece to my editor I began to ask if President Obama needed saving at all. Thus are the swings and roundabouts that confuse the US political scene. Indeed, Mitt Romney’s, first sally against the president came off so badly he has burnished the star of the Obama diadem, his medicare program. As we saw, in an extraordinary decision of the US Supreme Court the reliable “righty”, Chief Justice Roberts cast the deciding vote in favour of “Obamacare”.

I think this surprise vote had less to do with the issues at hand and a hell of a lot to do with politics. In the 2000 election the US Supreme Court decided in a clear Republican v Democrat split, that States couldn’t control their voting processes after all. This flew in the face of the settled law and brought the court into considerable disrepute. Sadly, the Supreme Court is partisan but this decision shocked that part of the nation that pays attention to this sort of thing and brought back memories of Franklin Roosevelt’s attempt to stack the Court with extra members, the extras being, surprise of his political persuasion.

Many, I included, see Chief Justice Roberts decision as a means of keeping the Court away from being an integral part of the 2012 election campaign which it certainly would have been with a different result, 

Romney came out swinging when the decision was announced overlooking two things – Obamacare has its fans, plenty of them but more importantly, the thing rock-ribbed Republicans hate about Obamacare is that it compels people to buy insurance and Romney’s own Massachusetts healthcare bill did precisely that. In a matter of moments he had scored two “own goals” and the President was much relieved to have his medicare still a big part of the campaign with his opponent having to state his case full of weasely “howevers”. (Don’t run to your dictionaries – weasely is a word I just made up and don’t you agree it’s a good one?)

For most of US modern history the vice presidential selection – made by the leader and dutifully confirmed by the convention – has been a casual matter leading to some pretty scary choices. Actually Dick Cheney’s selection wasn’t casual at all. President George Bush, not being a man for detail work, asked Cheney to canvass the options. After due consideration of the best candidates available Cheney decided that he was the best suited. On the broader aspect of things, many Americans still shudder at the thought there might have been a President Agnew, a President Quayle, or a President Palin and Mr. Obama, no doubt feeling that queasiness, in 2008 selected Joe Biden as a man who could actually step in and do the job.

What then will the President do at the Convention next September? Joe Biden will be 70 this year which is sort of a good news/bad news thing. The good thing is that not being a candidate in 2016 himself, his loyalty can be assured; the bad thing being that he might die in office meaning that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who might well be a Republican, would be next in line. 

The vice presidential selection is, however, traditionally selected for reasons quite outside his/her ability to lead the nation; The region represented is important, race and sex are issues, ability to deal with Congress (as in Kennedy selecting Lyndon Johnson) may be a deciding factor. As often as not the choice will end a party rift, Lyndon Johnson again being an example. Perhaps, as in the case of FDR selecting Harry Truman in 1944, it’s God only knows why.

Having said all that, my money, shakily handed over, would go to Joe Biden.

But what about Hillary Clinton? She is probably the only member of President Obama’s inner circle that has come out looking better than she went in. She is a woman which is finally becoming a fashionable criterion and she represents a powerful segment of the Democratic Party, married to a very popular, within Democrat circles at any rate, ex-president. She also represents one half of the bitterness of the 2008 Democratic race won by Mr. Obama. 

Of more importance than all this to Mr. Obama is that she would give him credibility and political smarts just when he needs it most. On the world scene she would be a big bonus.

There are two reasons Ms. Clinton might be the one – she vehemently denies she would take the job and most of the political smarty-pants in the media say that it can’t happen which are two of the usual reasons things do happen.

Age is a question – Ms. Clinton will be 70 in 2016 thus 74 by her second term should she win. I don’t think this bothers her any more than it bothered Ronald Reagan who was 69 when he took office. That she would like to be president is a given. Just as every foot-soldier, according to Napoleon, carried a marshal’s baton in his knapsack Ms. Clinton’s presidential ambitions presumably remain undiminished. 

Let us assume that Ms. Clinton does have lingering doubts about 2016, what if it appears to her that Obama needs serious help?’ What if Obama says to her – “let bygones be bygones … if Romney wins there goes the medicare you fought so hard for and I was able to bring in … Hillary I need you on the ticket”.

I, frankly, see this as a very real possibility. It was Ms. Clinton who worked so hard for medicare and failed so spectacularly to achieve it. It was her life’s ambition and I think she would bury all hatchets in order to preserve and enhance health care as the president so badly wants to do.

There is another, to me compelling argument, for this to happen. If Ms. Clinton sits this one out, what’s she going to do with herself for the next four years? She has ruled out continuing as Secretary of State and it’s time for new blood after 4 years. There is no convenient, at least no obvious convenient Senate seat open. If she were to be Vice-President she has a job which is not onerous, keeps her in the loop and in the public eye. In two years time she will have had enough time to evaluate her presidential ambitions and will have had a very good perch from which to examine what the 2011 presidential scene will look like.

Keeping the White House Democratic, preserving and enhancing medicare with lots of time and ability to survey the scene?

A powerful politician like Hillary Clinton does not give up that power and influence easily and while I wouldn’t bet the ranch, a buck or two on America’s version of the Iron Lady might not be amiss.

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