The events taking place at the Israel-Syria border resemble war time reports. Large-scale strikes have been delivered against Syria recently causing the death of dozens, perhaps, hundreds of people, the country’s military potential has suffered great damage. The Israel Defense Forces – IDF, commonly known in Israel by the Hebrew acronym Tzahal, in the area are put on high alert. Partial mobilization is covertly underway, for instance, the Elite Golani brigade has added 2 thousand reservists into its ranks. The forces located in the vicinity of Syrian border are reinforced by Iron Dome air defense systems. The Israeli Air Force aircraft intensively patrol the Lebanese skies. Lebanon has no air defense capability to counter the action. That’s where they launch ordnance to strike Syria from. According to reports, Tzahal will launch exercises in the areas of Golan Heights and northern Galillee. Israel is sure the war is at the corner…
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t cancel the previously planned visit to China, but it’s interesting to note that it is Minister of Defense Moshe «Bogie» Ya'alon who is going to step in as acting head of state during his absence.
It starts to look like Israel is getting fed up with indecisive stance of President Obama, who pins hopes on omnipotent soft power while trying to topple Bashar Assad, as well as the indecisiveness of Turkey reluctant to openly invade Syria. Israel is intent to expedite the way events unfold in the region. At the very start, Tel Aviv was not in raptures about the Arab Spring or the West supported attempts to overthrow the Syrian government. It was perspicacious enough to see that radicals are likely to reap the benefits. That’s the way it is happening now and Israel is becoming the leading actor behind the idea of launching a military intervention into the neighboring country. The explanation is simple. The Syrian armed forces have achieved tangible results recently while fighting the secular opposition represented by the West-supported Free Syrian Army, but the Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra is getting stronger. According to Palestinian sources, militants started to flee the Free Syrian Army’s ranks to join Jabhat al-Nusra for financial reasons. The Western funds probably disappear somewhere on the way, while money from Saudi Arabia and Qatar flows smoothly to support Islamist ranks. Israel finds the trend threatening. By striking the most sensitive objectives, it provokes Assad to respond creating a pretext for the US intervention under the disguise of Israel’s defense. This way it will facilitate certain Syrian opposition forces coming to power. Simultaneously the use of chemical weapons in Aleppo is still in focus. Carla Del Ponte, a member of the UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria, said that testimony gathered from casualties and medical staff indicated that the nerve agent sarin was used by rebel fighters. «Our investigators have been in neighboring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas, from the way the victims were treated», Ms. Del Ponte said in an interview broadcast on Swiss-Italian television on April 5. «This was used on the part of the opposition, the rebels, not by the government authorities», she added. Ms. Del Ponte said the inquiry has yet to see any direct evidence suggesting that government forces have used chemical weapons, but said further investigation was required before this possibility could be ruled out. President Barack Obama declared last year that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, would cross a «red line» and change US stand on whether or not it should intervene in the conflict. (1)
The first reaction in the West corroborates the fact that the Israel’s calculations were right. Just before the event, President Obama had said there would be no US boots on the ground in Syria. After the strikes he said that Israel «has the right to guard against the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah, an ally of both Syria and Iran. «According to President Barack Obama, he does not foresee sending US troops to tackle Syria's civil war. (2)But the strikes in question are obviously a prelude to US intervention, including a ground phase of operation. British Foreign Secretary William Hague says the Israeli regime’s violation of Syrian airspace and bombing of the country is part of Tel Aviv’s right to self-defense. «All countries have to look after their own national security, of course, and are able to take actions to protect their own national security», Mr. Hague told Sky News's Murnaghan program.
The Foreign Secretary also said the recent escalation in the conflict and Israel's airstrikes showed that the conflict risked spreading beyond Syria's borders to the wider Middle East and reiterated it was time to consider lifting the arms embargo on Syria's opposition. «The longer this goes on, the stronger the case becomes for lifting the arms embargoes on the National Coalition, on the Syrian opposition, if we're left with no other alternative to that», William Hague said. (3)
The President of Syria has shied away from retaliatory measures as yet, but how long will he tolerate the situation without damage to the country’s international standing and authority?
The Syrian Foreign Ministry statement said three military sites had been hit – a research center at Jamraya, a paragliding airport in the al-Dimas area of Damascus and a site in Maysaloun. In letters sent to the United Nations and the U.N. Security Council, Syria also said the Israeli strikes killed people and «caused widespread destruction». In an exclusive interview with CNN, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad said «When they attack, this is a declaration of war».
The Arab League of Nations officially condemned the Israeli attack against Syria and demanded the United Nations Security Council react to the events. Sometime before Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansur lashed out at the Arab League saying it kept silent in the wake of Israeli attacks.
Egypt condemned an Israeli attack on Syria on Sunday, saying it complicated a crisis that Cairo was trying to help resolve. In a statement, Egypt's presidency said the attack was a violation of international law and a threat to regional security and stability that «made the situation more complicated». «The attack on Syrian assets (and) the violation of Syria's sovereignty», the statement said.
Meanwhile the experts try to predict the way the events might unfold. Major General Amos Yadlin, former head of military intelligence, said, no matter the civil war, President Bashar Assad has the potential to strike Israel any time he wants. In an interview to Galey Zahal military radio station, the General said Syria had enough Scud and Fatah – 110 missiles. The British Daily Mirror reports that «Iranian forces are flooding in to war-ravaged Syria to back up President Assad’s ailing forces. Crack troops including Revolutionary Guards have flown in and a Western intelligence source said Iran now has more than 1,500 military personnel in Syria. The move comes as Israel steps up its own involvement in the bloody civil war. Yesterday its warplanes attacked the Syrian capital of Damascus, triggering three huge explosions. The source said: «The scale of Iran’s military input has suddenly increased. The deployment is a notable expansion of Iran’s willingness and ability to project military force beyond its borders. The Revolutionary Guards sent by Iran includes members of its elite Quds Force, and there are intelligence officers and law enforcers inside Syria too». (4)
Shlomo Brom, a retired Brigadier General now with Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, says there are three war scenarios.
Syrian missiles strike Syria. Brom says it is important to distinguish strategy and capabilities. Syria has enough missiles. They can get through the Israeli air defenses. Israel doesn’t possess enough interceptors to counter the threat, so the missiles will strike its territory. The attacks will be two times more powerful than the ones delivered during the second Lebanese war. Israel will retaliate with massive strikes getting involved into a serious war.
Syrian Air Force strikes Israel. In theory an exchange of strikes. may seem to be acceptable. But the Syrian aircraft are too obsolete. The war has taken toll on the hardware and personnel. Still, a few jets could be scrambled and fly at low altitude, they have a chance to succeed. It’s a narrow possibility, but there is no 100 percent defense.
Ground forces offensive. The mission will be to capture the Golan Heights. The strike will be delivered by commandos, infantry and tanks. Syria will try to get hold of a border post or a populated area, though the chances are low. The Army has taken its toll in war due to losses, deserters and subversive actions. There is a narrow possibility Syria would launch a large-scale ground offensive. According to Brom, Israel will meet an attempt to capture a part of its territory by starting a full-fledged war. (5)
It’s obvious, Israeli strategists rely of technological edge. Politicians should take into account that Irsael’s involvement into the Syrian conflict on the side of the opposition will not make the government more popular in the eyes of population and will finally pour water on the mill of Muslim radicals. The West and Israel stubbornly refuse to support the national reconciliation in Syria striving for unilateral domination. Bloodshed and destruction is on the rise, as well as the chances to succeed of the loyal forces. There is a vicious circle of crimes and mistakes: Iraq, Libya, now Syria, stepping on the same rakes over and over again…
(1) http://www.reuters.com/
(2) http://polosa.co.il/news/israel_newse/27538
(3) http://www.polosa.co.il/news/world/27593/
(4) http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/iran-sends-army-syria-revolutionary-1871848
(5) http://mignews.ru/news/politic/world/060513_135433_57031.html
