The European summit is to open on June 27. As the date was approaching, the issue of Serbia’s European Union membership talks start date was more and more shifting into spotlight. For the first time in the history of Serbia so much depends on just one date of calendar, the date which has no relation to the things like declaration of war or conclusion of peace. As the statements by the European Union were becoming more obfuscatory, the Serbian leaders grew more impatient. 

As usual, Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for the European Union, was most discreet while making forecasts. She did not promise much to Belgrade. All the Representative said was that she intended to «inform» the European Union on the progress confirming that Serbia and Kosovo have made «concrete progress» toward normalizing their relations. She added: «With a view to the meeting of the council and the European Council next week, I will now inform the member states about the progress in the implementation of the April agreement, confirming that concrete steps towards a visible and sustainable improvement of relations between the two sides were taken». But Serbia's First Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic wants a concrete EU entry start date and he wants it this autumn. According to him, Serbia has met all obligations. 

The reports by Ashton and the European Commission for Serbia are expected to be by and large favourable for Serbia. The Commission’s draft document says that once Serbia has achieved crucial progress in the relationship with Kosovo, the European Commission recommends setting a start date for EU accession talks. 

Still, the verdict of the summit is still far from being certain taking into consideration the resistance of tough approach advocates, the countries like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. 

Germany’s stance will be decisive. The issue will be discussed by all 27 full-fledged members at working dinner on Friday. It is reported, the draft decision mentions fixing a concrete start date for the talks between Brussels and Belgrade on Serbia’s accession. But Germany is intent to press for changing the draft decision so that it would be possible to exert pressure on Serbia pushing it for diplomatic recognition of Kosovo… 

At that, Serbia has a group of support among the European Union’s ranks. It includes Italy, Slovenia and Croatia, the last one is the country to join the European Union on July 1. At the summit the three states are to come out with a joint statement calling for launching the start talks with Serbia as soon as possible, as well as starting talks on a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with Kosovo. They think any other decision will play into the hands of nationalists and, also, will be in contrast with «European values».

So, what does it all bear out? The process of Serbia’s integration into the European Union will be just another routine mixture of blackmail, steps back and maneuvering. Belgrade will have to make one concession after another. The full-fledged European Union accession will take place no earlier than the 2020s and, even at that, under the conditions that the European Union leaves the current crisis behind, makes progress while tackling the issue of immigration and overcomes political discord in its own ranks. The odds are also high enough that once the official talks are launched, the whole process may be blocked by Berlin again.

The United States stance is worth to be given a special place here. The United States diplomacy is formally keeping away from the accession talks between Serbia and the European Union. The reason is that there are doubts the final conclusion is achievable. There is also an intent to see how the «Kosovo model» works in the case of other conflicts, especially the ones in the focus of Washington’s foreign policy efforts, like Syria, for instance. Far be it for the final goal to be the peaceful settlement of contradictions between Serbia and Kosovo, and especially the start date for Serbia’s EU entry. The real objective is to see how the use of force going around the United Nations approval works. What is to be tried here is an intervention into an artificially exacerbated conflict with the mission to achieve a «zero result» making the United States an absolute winner taking it all. Whatever is momentous for Belgrade and very important for Brussels is like moving pieces on a chess-board (playing Brussels gambit) for Washington. It’s a global game of chess and, according to Zbigniew Brzezinski's book «The Grand Chessboard», the mission is defined the following way, «…But in the meantime, it is imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges, capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America. The formulation of a comprehensive and integrated Eurasian geostrategy is therefore the purpose of this book».