There have been shifts in the leadership of Syria’s armed opposition. Following defeats in recent weeks and the broad offensive carried out by government forces, the leaders of the opposition have, by a small majority, elected Saudi Arabia’s protege Ahmad Assi al-Jarba to replace the man from Qatar and become the new leader of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF). When you consider that Doha has only just openly sent its ward, the «Muslim Brotherhood», to Egypt after recognising the new regime following the military coup, then it is clear that the new Emir of Qatar is gradually moving away from the grandiose schemes of his father. From now on, it will be probably the most undemocratic government in the world that is going to be wholly in charge of Syria’s «democratic» opposition – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On the whole it makes sense, since it is largely the KSA and al-Qaeda oriented Salafis who are fighting the Syrian government’s army. Western politicians, however, continue to believe they are «fighting for freedom». Syria, which is independent when it comes to the West, is not the same as Afghanistan where exactly the same militants are called terrorists. It is also of no small significance that there are more than 8,000 Saudi «volunteers» fighting against the Syrian government who are, in reality, members of elite units transferred to Syria with the help of the clandestine services of the Saudi kingdom. (1)

Ahmad al-Jarba has already put himself on the map with his first high-profile initiative – suggesting to President Bashar al-Assad that he suspend military operations in the city of Homs for the duration of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (in 2013, this is from 9 July to 7 August). (2) Moreover, Ahmad al-Jarba has simply and unpretentiously reported that the Syrian opposition is shortly expecting to receive modern weapons from Saudi Arabia that will allow the rebels to successfully resist government forces. In other words, he is not hiding the fact that his proposed ceasefire is just a tactical manoeuvre. The rebels themselves are not thinking about ceasing military operations. Even after Ramadan had already started, two cars they had stuffed with explosives were blown up in the area of Homs under the control of government forces. In the process, tens of civilians were killed and injured. It is already clear that Syria will not see peace during Ramadan

Homs, Syria’s third largest city (with a population of more than 800,000) came to the forefront of news about the war following the brilliant new manoeuvre by loyalist commander General al-Freij, who confounded the opposition and their foreign patrons yet again. Everybody thought that Homs would be attacked straight after the triumphant liberation of neighbouring Al-Qusayr. Instead, however, the Syrian army began to move further north toward the country’s largest city Aleppo near the Turkish border, declaring its liberation to be «the mother of all battles», following which it was possible to believe that the country’s civil war had been won by Damascus. The overall plan, meanwhile, turned out to be more complicated. According to the estimates of some international experts, the group that gathered there may have numbered more than 70,000 soldiers. The militants also began to gather all their main forces there, denuding other provinces. Basic military aid was also sent to Aleppo by the opposition’s foreign patrons. On 11 June in Paris, for example, two of Saudi Arabia’s most influential princes – Saud al-Faisal and Bandar bin Sultan – held a meeting with the highest dignitaries of France. Both sides agreed that «they would not allow a repeat of Al-Qusayr in Aleppo». (3) And so the offensive began. The army seized a number of strategic positions, first and foremost to the north of the city, most notably in the outskirt settlements of Sakhour and Kafar, having effectively cut off the militants’ supply lines from bases in Turkey. A number of military facilities in the centre and to the south of Aleppo that had long been under siege were partially released, including a military factory, the central prison, a military academy and Ming Airport. But then, after abandoning their head-on assault of well-fortified positions in the city that were being defended by thousands of militants with the very latest weaponry, Syrian troops surprised everybody by suddenly stopping and once again focusing on Homs, which was now stripped of defence forces. The opposition in a number of areas in Aleppo even launched a counter-offensive, trying, for example, to seize the Shi’ite towns of Nubol and Zahraa as well as storming the central prison day after day, obviously in anticipation of a significant reinforcement of troops. Thanks to reserves, the army is beating off every counterattack with huge loses for the attackers, restricting them and maintaining hard-won bridgeheads for the renewed liberation of the city. 

It turned out that General al-Freij did not want to leave the powerful opposition group in the rear, sending just 20,000 people or so to Aleppo which represented the main concentration of troops, while the bulk of the victors from the Battle of Al-Qusayr had remained just outside Aleppo where they were waiting for their time to come. It seems that the Syrian command’s decision was also influenced by the fact that at the height of the offensive against Aleppo, Western countries, in their attempts to stop it, had indicated the possibility of a military intervention in Syria by Jordan. Manoeuvres carried out in the middle of June this year in Jordan, in which nearly 10,000 soldiers from 17 countries, hundreds of armoured vehicles, and tens of F-16 fighter jets took part, were a serious threat which the Syrian leadership was unable to ignore. According to Israeli military sources, 18 possible targets for attack have already been identified within Syria. The plan of attack includes both a bombing campaign and the dropping of commandos onto Syrian soil. (4) The manoeuvres have come to an end, however. The main body of the Syrian army did not get bogged down in fights on the streets of Aleppo, but turned out to be ready for a quick redeployment to the Jordanian border. The one thousand Americans with «Patriot» missile batteries who have been left behind in Jordan are not nearly enough to invade. The failure of American attempts to get the UN to find Damascus guilty of using chemical weapons on the back of Russia’s convincing counter allegations that the opposition has resorted to similar actions more than once, Obama’s indecisiveness and, most importantly, the resoluteness of the Syrian government itself and the skilful actions of the leadership of the national army have if not completely removed the probability of a Western military intervention then at least reduced it significantly. It is now possible to get on with finally clearing out Homs. «The mother of all battles» for Aleppo has not been called off, but it will be carried out under much more strategically beneficial conditions for Damascus.

As the Beirut Observer points out, quoting «insiders in the Syrian Air Force command», Syrian military aircraft were used to «obtain information from the Chinese intelligence services», enabling them to destroy a convoy of 25 vehicles carrying American weapons destined for terrorists. The air strike was carried out as soon as the convoy reached Syria from Jordan. (5)

 Admittedly, the fall in the latest numbers of militants recruited in Homs is the issue of the day. The city is important not just as a serious stronghold for the opposition in the centre of the country, but as the main location for forces to gather, including international forces, from the Jabhat al-Nusra front, which is associated with al-Qaeda. It is from Homs that the recent shocking video images emerged showing the beheadings of peaceful Christians, including a Catholic priest. (6) It was here that the Saudis also held particularly strong positions. According to recent information, seven citizens from Saudi Arabia were arrested in old Homs while trying to flee, two of whom – soldiers in the rank of colonel – are officers of the Saudi Arabian foreign intelligence agency and report directly to its head, Bandar bin Sultan. (7) At present, the army has practically herded militants into the old part of the city, in which the Khalidiya district and the site of the ancient Khalid ibn al-Walid Mosque with its neighbouring park, through which communications took place between all the districts of Homs seized by oppositionists, have already been liberated. 

The likely-looking bloodless surrender of entire cities and villages that were earlier controlled by the opposition does not promise them anything good. So it is that 350 militants from the neighbouring settlements of Tel-Assur, Ar-Rabiyah, Al-Gasbiyah, Jdeidet al-Assi, At-Tanba and Al-Mushahada gave themselves up to law-enforcement agencies in Homs along with their weapons. They have pledged that they will not take possession of any more weapons or take part in any kind of activity «capable of damaging the security of their Homeland». (8) The strategically significant city of Tel Kalyah, located on the Lebanese border, has voluntarily moved under the control of the government, completely cutting off the militants’ supply of reinforcements coming in from Lebanon. It is assumed that after the fall of Homs, this trend will develop further. 

There is also growing conflict within the ranks of the opposition itself. The Free Syrian Army (FSA), which was backed by the West and in which the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar held strong positions, has turned out to be in the most difficult position. After the «brothers» were deprived of power in Egypt, Doha suddenly «handed over» all of its wards and the position of the FSA in Syria weakened dramatically. As The New York Times writes, an FSA unit recently entered into a fierce military battle with jihadist allies in Dana on the Syrian-Turkish border. The latter beheaded two rival fighters and threw their bodies into a rubbish bin with shooting later breaking out throughout the city, as a result of which several civilians, including children, were killed. The presence of uncompromising foreign mercenaries within the ranks of the Islamic radicals makes any kind of unity hard to achieve. Islamist fighters, for example, reported that they recently drove the Farouq Brigade, a unit of the FSA, out of the rebel-held provincial capital Raqqa, «because instead of fighting, some of its members drank wine and pestered women». The Jabhat al-Nusra front, along with similar movements like the «Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham» (the old name for Syria), are trying to drive FSA forces out of villages and towns throughout the country and establish Sharia law. Moreover, groups associated with al-Qaeda are buying up land in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, which is currently worth nothing and so costs very little money, in an attempt to monopolise grain and fuel supplies. (9) 

Although slowly, the truth about the real face of the Syrian opposition is finally making its way through the world. On 5 July, the BBC broadcast an interview with one of the commanders of the Syrian rebels, a certain Abu Sakkar, who sadly gained notoriety for the ritual eating of a fallen enemy soldier’s heart and admitted that it was not propaganda, but an actual fact. It should be said that this person feels completely at ease both in the camp of the opposition and when conversing with Western representatives. Nobody is bringing any kind of charges against him, he is not being subjected to any kind of retribution and he is getting even angrier. He threatens «to deal with enemies even more brutally, which will horrify everybody» (10) (by eating something whole, perhaps?) According to Sakkar, the only thing he is short of is weapons from the West. And with that, some problems really have started to emerge. It seems that reports of cannibalism do not just make the blood of sensitive people run cold. A few sentimental American congressmen have together refused Obama’s right to supply weapons to the Syrian opposition. 

There is no point deceiving ourselves, of course. The president of America has quite a few ways to get around the ban, which is what is happening right now – weapons are flowing into Syria from the West. As a consequence, General al-Freij has still got quite a lot of work ahead of him.