There are important changes affecting the complex correlation of forces in the Syrian war. Kurds had been by and large on the fence till recently. Now they are joining the fray on the side of government forces. The Kurds population in Syria is around 2, 5 million (10-12%) of the overall country’s population. They inhabit three relatively large populated areas and many smaller enclaves, all located separately along the Turkish border. The northeastern Kurdish inhabited region covers the greater part of Hasakah Governorate situated between Syria, Turkey and Iraq (the main city is Qamishli). The fact that the residential areas are spread around accounts for lack of outright separatist trends as in the case of the Syrian Kurds fellow nationals living in Iraq and Turkey. Historically their claims have generally been boiled down to national and cultural autonomy, the recognition of civil rights and corresponding guarantees making part of the new Syrian constitution. No matter being skeptical towards the Damascus regime, they have never entered into an open confrontation.
The Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) is a leading political force. The party is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whose leader Abdullah Öcalan is behind bars at present. The PYD-created Peshmerga self-defense formations possess no heavy weapons, but are known to boast high morale. The Kurdish political leaders believe the Peshmerga strength could go up to 50 thousand. It’s a force to count with being quite capable of influencing the outcome of the on-going war in the country.
The strengthening of radical Islamists among the anti-Assad opposition ranks has become a major cause of tension between Kurds and the Syrian anti-government forces. The decisive moment is drawing near; the one who misses it may lose being left on the outskirts. Various Salafi and Jihadist groups, especially Jabhat Al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, have recently tried to make young Kurds joint their ranks and establish control over Kurdish populated areas to create an Islamic emirate in the northern part of Syria. It does not match the Kurds conception of national rights. Besides, the idea may provoke heavy fighting between the Islamists and government forces in the Kurds-populated lands. The Kurdish Democratic Union Party has put the blame on other Kurdish organizations for getting the region involved into the civil war by allowing Kurds to join the anti-government Free Syrian Army’s ranks. And its Peshmerga has delivered a sweeping strike.
The Islamists have become accustomed to hold easy victories over «secular» opposition. Faced by Peshmerga, they have suffered one defeat after another except in the cases they enjoyed significant superiority in numbers and weapons. The rebels have been driven from populated areas in the eastern part of Turkish border. The death toll is measured in hundreds. The front line has already extended to 70 km. Some smaller Kurdish enclaves in the West, like Afrin, for instance, are still surrounded. They pin their hopes on Damascus realizing there will be no place for Kurds in the Islamist emirate.
The fight for the border town of Ras al-Ain is a good example. The Kurdish units not only defeated the militants there, but also took prisoner their field commander. His nom-de-guerre is Abu Musab and he is said to be a Chechen by origin. In response around 500 Kurds were taken hostage by militants, mainly women, old men and children. The Islamists demanded to free their leader and started to cut off the heads of victims. The exchange took place but the Islamists continued to keep around 200 civilians as «live shields». The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stepped in, while nobody in the West appeared to give any notice to what was happening.
Near the town of Tel Abyad of the Al-Raqqah Governorate the situation abruptly changed in favor of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party when the entire brigade «the Kurdish Front» of the Syrian Free Army switched sides and joined the Peshmerga forces. The jihadists had wanted it to be fully under their command but the Kurdish commanding officers had refused. The 313th Syrian Free army brigade took the side of the Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant there, though they are fighting each other in other combat zones. The 93th regiment of the 17th Syrian regular army division, as well as Syria Air Force, provided support to the Kurds formations. It looks like an alliance between the Kurds and the government forces is emerging, no matter how fragile it may look at the moment.
At present the Peshmerga units are concentrating efforts on capturing the town of Ya'arubiya at the Iraqi border. It opens the way to Mosul, the traditional trade route between Syria and Iraq. The Kurds are gaining control over the transition points at the border with Turkey cutting the enemy off from supply routes. In turn the Turkish troops blocked the cargo delivery routes to the Kurds-controlled areas on their territory. The Kurdish enclaves in Syria are still blockaded. A breakthrough at the Mosul front could end the siege and establish a direct link with Iraqi Kurdistan. The Syria army is moving in the same direction at Tel Hamis supporting the Kurdish forces and clearing the Ya'arubiya area from militants…
The Islamists try to counterstrike. The Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant launched the operation called "Operation Volcano in the East» with the prime mission to capture Hassake in the rear of Peshmerga main strike forces making their way to Ya'arubiya. The militants’ strength is around 2500 men, while an approximately 3000 strong militant’s force is concentrated near Raps al-Ain for an offensive aimed at recapturing the town.
Turkey takes active part in the events providing support to the Syrian armed opposition. Ankara is concerned about the Kurdish autonomous area emerging in Syria. It will inevitably give impetus to the forces pursuing the goal of separating the Turkish Kurdistan. After the Kurds formations launched an offensive, a string of Turkish law enforcement structures meetings has taken place with personal participation of President Abdullah Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It has been declared that Turkey will take retaliatory measures to counter any threats coming from Syria.
The Turkish artillery pieces and mortars regularly fire at the Kurds positions across the border. Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles fly over the battle fields. The whole train loads of reinforcements boost the capabilities of Turkey-based militants preparing for assault against Ras al-Ain. The Turkish General Staff ordered full readiness condition for the near based 2d army division and the air base in Diyarbakir. The Diyarbakir based aircraft have started regular flights over the border areas.
In Turkey many experts say it’s not normal that Turkey actually finds itself in alliance with Al-Qaeda fighting the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, which has taken control over many parts of the 900 km long Turkey-Syria border. They suggest that instead it would be more expedient to involve the Kurdish Party into the anti-Assad alliance. Some Turkish sources say the Kurdish political forces are in collusion with Assad in order to establish the autonomous region in the Syria’s northern part. For instance, according to Sedat Laçiner, rector of Çanakkale 18 Mart University and an expert on the Middle East, the PKK and al-Assad's regime have agreed on the establishment of the Kurdish autonomous region, a development which not only troubles Turkey but also the Syrian opposition. Laçiner speculates that if al-Assad is included in Syria's future, Turkey might still be dealing with a terrorism problem — this time with terrorist groups residing to its south. Al-Assad and Iran might continue to use the PKK and its offshoot groups to threaten Turkey's security, Laçiner notes.
At that, it's evident that Turkey itself has facilitated the Kurds-Damascus alliance, which it sees as a source of threat to its security, by rendering direct support to Syrian radical opposition. According to Kurdish media, until recently Assad and the Syrian opposition had been against the idea of establishing any kind of Kurdish autonomous territory. For many years Kurds had accused Damascus of discrimination and the policy aimed at quelling their national movement. But as the war started, Bashar Assad began making steps to meet Kurds halfway. The government forces have left the major part of Kurds populated areas in the northeastern part of the country, except the largest cities of Qamishli and Hasakah, which is tantamount to actually granting autonomy in practice. Moreover, in fact the Syrian military garrisons in these locations support the Kurdish movement by participating in forming Peshmerga units. Now the Kurdish leaders are seriously afraid of losing the political gains in case the armed opposition comes to power. They also realize they cannot keep away from the fray while anticipating the rebels defeat – they may not be among the ranks of winners to use the fruits of government forces victory.
Experts think a three-man delegation from the Syrian regime, led by Muhammad Khair Osi, a Kurd, who is close to Bashar Assad, which visited Qamishli in June, tilted the scale to make Syrian Kurds take active part in the events. Rudaw agency reported the event but disclosed no details about the talks agenda. Still as the events unfold it becomes clear there were some accords achieved.
No doubt, Damascus and Qamishli still face a long way to forget old grievances and create a solid base for a lasting alliance to restore the country. But even now it is evident that the combat interaction between the government troops and the formations of Syria Kurds can prevent the country from plunging into the quagmire of utter chaos. And then the prospect for ending the bloody war in Syria may appear to be not as remote as some forecasts say, for instance the US defense intelligence.
