When the United States President Barack Obama renews a neglected friendship, there has to be a compelling reason for that. There was a time when Obama would have counted Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan as his best friend in the Middle East and spoke of the latter as a role model for the «new Middle East» in the making… 

Obama thoughtfully picked Istanbul as his location in 2009 to make the landmark speech heralding a brave new world for the Muslim Middle East. Those were halcyon days in Turkish-American relations but today that is ancient history. 

The plain truth is that the two leaders did not have a single conversation during the past six-month period. Unsurprisingly, this six-month period witnessed a marked drift in the US-Turkish relationship as well and several discordant notes marred what used to be a fine symphony. 

The nadir was reached when Erdogan threatened to send home the US ambassador in Ankara for allegedly conspiring against his government; when Ankara taunted Washington with the stunning prospect of engaging a Chinese company (blacklisted in the US) to build its missile defence system; when Turkey kept truck with al-Qaeda affiliates operating in northern Syria; and, when Ankara undermined Iraq’s sovereignty by striking energy deals directly with the leadership in the northern Kurdistan region. 

And to cap it all, Erdogan took his own time to initiate any serious moves to repair Turkey’s tattered ties with Israel despite repeated US urgings, including at Obama’s level, and he could barely hide his disappointment when Obama pulled back from attacking Syria last year. 

In retrospect, Obama gave a wide berth to Erdogan and attended to his Middle Eastern policies without counting on the cooperation from the Turkish leader. Meanwhile, the ground beneath the feet of the two leaders also began shifting. Quite obviously, it turned out that both the US and Turkey were grossly mistaken in their assumption that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was a pushover. More so, Ankara didn’t anticipate that it was in the logic of things that al-Qaeda affiliates would eventually seize the window of opportunity provided by covert Turkish support to establish themselves as a dominant presence inside Syria along the border with Turkey. 

On the other hand, the Obama administration also would realize that the US regional strategies in several theatres – the Middle East, the Black Sea and the Caucasus – stand to gain significantly through the partnership with Turkey. The US’ regime change agenda in the Ukraine and Syria, the return of al-Qaeda threat to Iraq, and Israel’s security are best addressed by the Obama administration with Turkey by its side. 

Equally, Erdogan also is in a chastened mood following the series of setbacks to Turkey’s regional standing (particularly in Egypt) as a result of the petering out of the Arab Spring and the disarray in the Syrian opposition, the suddenness of the US-Iranian engagement, and, most important, the growing volatility in Turkey’s domestic politics (which also contributed to a steady estrangement between Ankara and the European Union.) 

The Turkish media accounts, quoting diplomatic resources in Ankara, claimed that Obama and Erdogan held a lengthy 90-minute phone conversation on Tuesday and «exchanged views on strategic issues» as well as discussed the Syrian situation and the renewed efforts at the unification of Cyprus. The Turkish side claims that Obama steered clear of the controversial issues such as corruption or Internet freedom that are battering the Erdogan government politics lately. 

The White House readout mentioned that in the phone conversation between Obama and Erdogan «a range of bilateral and regional issues» came up and that Obama «affirmed the value he places on a strong mutually respectful bilateral relationship… and expressed his view that Turkey can demonstrate leadership in the world through positive engagement». 

The readout said Obama and Erdogan agreed on the «importance of close cooperation… to address the growing terrorist presence in Syria» and to foster harmony between the Iraqi federal government and the local authorities in Kurdistan region. 

Turkey indeed would have a key role in any proactive US policies toward Syria in the coming period. For one thing, the moderate rebel forces are in disarray and squabbles have erupted following the controversial appointment of a new chief of staff for the so-called Supreme Military Command [SMC]. The SMC, on the other hand, has announced its intention to revamp and reorganize the Free Syrian Army. 

Clearly, the US-Saudi policies in Syria are at a crossroads. It is entirely conceivable that a period of smoother Saudi-US relations lies ahead, which would augur a stronger Saudi effort against the al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Syria while also stepped-up efforts to arm and fund Syrian rebels. 

Meanwhile, the al Qaida-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and Syria appears to be making a comeback in northern Syria. Suffice to say, the bottom line would be that Turkey is a «natural ally» in any western military intervention in Syria in the nature of creating «humanitarian corridor» or no-fly zones, or for staging drone attacks. The recent trip by the French President Frncois Hollande to Turkey just before his state visit to Washington underscored Turkey’s special role in any US-French moves on Syria. 

However, it stands to reason that there were two other issues that were fairly high on Obama’s own check list – the progress in kick-starting the US-supported Cyprus reunification talks and, secondly, the dynamics of the Turkish-Israeli normalization. Curiously, the two issues are also inter-related and vital US interests are involved. Obama told Erdogan to speed up the normalization with Israel. 

The Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was on record recently that the Turkish-Israeli relations are «close» to normalization. This process coincides with the launch of the UN-brokered reunification talks last week after a break of nearly two years. 

Again, it has been reported that the US-based Noble Energy and Israel’s Delek Group, two of the largest stakeholders in the huge east Mediterranean Leviathan gas field off Cyprus (estimated reserves about 19 trillion cubic feet), are in talks with four Turkish energy firms – Turcas, Zorlu, Calik and Enka Enerji – for a possible deal in the construction of a natural gas pipeline via Turkey to Europe capable of carrying 8 billion cubic meters of Israeli gas starting 2017. 

Ankara has so far been threatening to boycott oil firms operating off Cyprus, while Nicosia, in turn, accuses Turkey of «gunboat diplomacy». But all this acrimony could change phenomenally if the three-way equations between Ankara, Tel Aviv and Nicosia can be set right. To be sure, the gas pipeline project is a win-win deal for all three countries. 

Of course, there is a long and difficult path ahead in bringing harmony betwixt Turkey, Israel and Cyprus, but then, Obama is not one to get easily deterred. To quote the Forbes magazine, «Cyprus currently boasts access to almost half of an estimated 122 tcf of natural gas below waters in the Eastern Mediterranean. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the country’s ability to exploit the offshore reserves could bring in about $400 billion in revenue over the coming years».