Reciprocal trade sanctions by Russia and the EU should not last longer than 3 months, as both economies will feel they can’t afford that, according to experts from Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank.
“We believe an escalating trade war would be unbearable for both Russia and the EU, and that the EU will revoke the sanctions within one to three months, with Russia abolishing its own sanctions,” said the bank’s report called 'The Ukrainian Crisis: the Nordic angle'.
The report focuses on Nordic markets and said that should energy become involved in the dispute, the losses for both Russia and the EU would be sky-high.
Russia is Europe’s biggest gas supplier providing about 30 percent of the region’s total demand.
Experts say the Ukrainian crisis will have a modest direct impact on the European economy, with the biggest risk coming from negative sentiment.
Finland is thought of as the most vulnerable country, and is expected to contract 0.2 percent this year. This is because the country’s trade, tourism and foreign direct investment are closely connected with Russia and Ukraine.
Scandinavian countries are expected to feel a limited affect. Norway may even benefit from sanctions long term, if Europe starts using Norwegian gas as an alternative to Russian supplies, the report concluded.
