By Pepe ESCOBAR

The year 2022 started with Kazakhstan on fire, a serious attack against one of the key hubs of Eurasian integration. We are only beginning to understand what and how it happened.

On Monday morning, leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) held an extraordinary session to discuss Kazakhstan.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev framed it succinctly. Riots were “hidden behind unplanned protests.” The goal was “to seize power” – a coup attempt. Actions were “coordinated from a single center.” And “foreign militants were involved in the riots.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin went further: during the riots, “Maidan technologies were used,” a reference to the Ukrainian square where 2013 protests unseated a NATO-unfriendly government.

Defending the prompt intervention of CSTO peacekeeping forces in Kazakhstan, Putin said, “it was necessary to react without delay.” The CSTO will be on the ground “as long as necessary,” but after the mission is accomplished, “of course, the entire contingent will be withdrawn from the country.” Forces are expected to exit later this week.

But here’s the clincher: “CSTO countries have shown that they will not allow chaos and ‘color revolutions’ to be implemented inside their borders.”

Putin was in synch with Kazakh State Secretary Erlan Karin, who was the first, on the record, to apply the correct terminology to events in his country: What happened was a “hybrid terrorist attack,” by both internal and external forces, aimed at overthrowing the government.

The tangled hybrid web

Virtually no one knows about it. But last December, another coup was discreetly thwarted in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek. Kyrgyz intel sources attribute the engineering to a rash of NGOs linked with Britain and Turkey.

That introduces an absolutely key facet of The Big Picture: NATO-linked intel and their assets may have been preparing a simultaneous color revolution offensive across Central Asia.

On my Central Asia travels in late 2019, pre-Covid, it was plain to see how western NGOs – Hybrid War fronts – remained extremely powerful in both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

Yet, they are just one nexus in a western nebulae of Hybrid War fog deployed across Central Asia, and West Asia for that matter. Here we see the CIA and the US Deep State crisscrossing MI6 and different strands of Turkish intel.

When President Tokayev was referring in code to a “single center,” he meant a so far ‘secret’ US-Turk-Israeli military-intel operations room based in the southern business hub of Almaty, according to a highly placed Central Asia intel source.

In this “center,” there were 22 Americans, 16 Turks and 6 Israelis coordinating sabotage gangs – trained in West Asia by the Turks – and then rat-lined to Almaty.

The op started to unravel for good when Kazakh forces – with the help of Russian/CSTO intel – retook control of the vandalized Almaty airport, which was supposed to be turned into a hub for receiving foreign military supplies.

The Hybrid War west had to be stunned and livid at how the CSTO intercepted the Kazakh operation at such lightning speed. The key element is that the secretary of Russian National Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, saw the Big Picture eons ago.

So, it’s no mystery why Russia’s aerospace and aero-transported forces, plus the massive necessary support infrastructure, were virtually ready to go.

Back in November, Patrushev’s laser was already focused on the degrading security situation in Afghanistan. Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullojanov was among the very few who were stressing that there were as many as 8,000 imperial machine Salafi-jihadi assets, shipped by a rat line from Syria and Iraq, loitering in the wilds of northern Afghanistan.

That’s the bulk of ISIS-Khorasan – or ISIS reconstituted near the borders of Turkmenistan. Some of them were duly transported to Kyrgyzstan. From there, it was very easy to cross the border from Bishek and show up in Almaty.

It took no time for Patrushev and his team to figure out, after the imperial retreat from Kabul, how this jihadi reserve army would be used: along the 7,500 km-long border between Russia and the Central Asian ‘stans’.

That explains, among other things, a record number of preparation drills conducted in late 2021 at the 210th Russian military base in Tajikistan.

James Bond speaks Turkish

The breakdown of the messy Kazakh op necessarily starts with the usual suspects: the US Deep State, which all but “sang” its strategy in a 2019 RAND corporation report, Extending Russia. Chapter 4, on “geopolitical measures”, details everything from “providing lethal aid to Ukraine”, “promoting regime change in Belarus”, and “increasing support for Syrian rebels” – all major fails – to “reducing Russian influence in Central Asia.”

That was the master concept. Implementation fell to the MI6-Turk connection.

The CIA and MI6 had been investing in dodgy outfits in Central Asia since at least 2005, when they encouraged the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), then close to the Taliban, to wreak havoc in southern Kyrgyzstan. Nothing happened.

It was a completely different story by May 2021, when the MI6’s Jonathan Powell met the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra – which harbors a lot of Central Asian jihadis – somewhere in the Turkish-Syrian border near Idlib.

The deal was that these ‘moderate rebels’ – in US terminology – would cease to be branded ‘terrorists’ as long as they followed the anti-Russia NATO agenda.

That was one of the key prep moves ahead of the jihadist ratline to Afghanistan – complete with Central Asia branching out.

The genesis of the offensive should be found in June 2020, when former ambassador to Turkey from 2014 to 2018, Richard Moore, was appointed head of MI6.

Moore may not have an inch of Kim Philby’s competence, but he does fit the profile: rabid Russophobe, and a cheerleader of the Great Turania fantasy, which promotes a pan-Turk confederation of Turkic-speaking peoples from West Asia and the Caucasus to Central Asia and even Russian republics in the Volga.

MI6 is deeply entrenched in all the ‘stans’ except autarchic Turkmenistan – cleverly riding the pan-Turkist offensive as the ideal vehicle to counter Russia and China.

Erdogan himself has been invested on a hardcore Great Turania offensive, especially after the creation of the Turkic Council in 2009.

Crucially, next March, the summit of the Confederation Council of Turkic-speaking States – the new Turkic Council denomination – will take place in Kazakhstan. The city of Turkestan, in southern Kazakhstan, is expected to be named as the spiritual capital of the Turkic world.

And here, the ‘Turkic world’ enters into a frontal clash with the integrating Russian concept of Greater Eurasia Partnership, and even with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that, crucially, does not count Turkey as a member.

Erdogan’s short term ambition seems at first to be only commercial: after Azerbaijan won the Karabakh war, he expects to use Baku to get access to Central Asia via the Caspian Sea, complete with Turkey’s industrial-military complex sales of military technology to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Turkish companies are already investing heavily in real estate and infrastructure. And in parallel, Ankara’s soft power is on overdrive, finally collecting the fruits of exercising a lot of pressure, for instance, to speed up the transition in Kazakhstan from Cyrillic script to the Latin alphabet, starting in 2023.

Yet both Russia and China are very much aware that Turkey essentially represents NATO entering Central Asia. The organization of Turkic states are cryptically called the Kazakh operation ‘fuel protests’.

It’s all very murky. Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism – which comes with massive cheerleading by his Muslim Brotherhood base – essentially has nothing to do with the pan-Turanic drive, which is a racialist movement predicating domination by relatively ‘pure’ Turks.

The problem is that they are converging while becoming more extreme, with Turkey’s right-wing Grey Wolves deeply implicated. That explains why Ankara intel is a sponsor and, in many cases, a weaponizer of both the ISIS-Khorasan franchise and those Turan racists, from Bosnia to Xinjiang via Central Asia.

The Empire handsomely profits from this toxic association, in Armenia, for instance. And the same would happen in Kazakhstan if the operation is successful.

Bring on the Trojan Horses

Every color revolution needs a ‘Maximum’ Trojan Horse. In our case, that seems to be the role of former head of KNB (National Security Committee) Karim Massimov, now held in prison and charged with treason.

Hugely ambitious, Massimov is half-Uyghur, and that, in theory, obstructed what he saw as his pre-ordained rise to power. His connections with Turkish intel are not yet fully detailed, unlike his cozy relationship with Joe Biden and son.

A former Minister of Internal Affairs and State Security, Lt Gen Felix Kulov, has weaved a fascinating tangled web explaining the possible internal dynamics of the ‘coup’ built into the color revolution.

According to Kulov, Massimov and Samir Abish, the nephew of recently ousted Kazakh Security Council Chairman Nursultan Nazarbayev, were up to their necks in supervising ‘secret’ units of ‘bearded men’ during the riots. The KNB was directly subordinated to Nazarbayev, who until last week was the chairman of the Security Council.

When Tokayev understood the mechanics of the coup, he demoted both Massimov and Samat Abish. Then Nazarbayev ‘voluntarily’ resigned from his life-long chairmanship of the Security Council. Abish then got this post, promising to stop the ‘bearded men,’ and then to resign.

So that would point directly to a Nazarbayev-Tokayev clash. It makes sense as, during his 29-year rule, Nazarbayev played a multi-vector game that was too westernized and which did not necessarily benefit Kazakhstan. He adopted British laws, played the pan-Turkic card with Erdogan, and allowed a tsunami of NGOs to promote an Atlanticist agenda.

Tokayev is a very smart operator. Trained by the foreign service of the former USSR, fluent in Russian and Chinese, he is totally aligned with Russia-China – which means fully in sync with the masterplan of the BRI, the Eurasia Economic Union, and the SCO.

Tokayev, much like Putin and Xi, understands how this BRI/EAEU/SCO triad represents the ultimate imperial nightmare, and how destabilizing Kazakhstan – a key actor in the triad – would be a mortal coup against Eurasian integration.

Kazakhstan, after all, represents 60 percent of Central Asia’s GDP, massive oil/gas and mineral resources, cutting-edge high tech industries: a secular, unitary, constitutional republic bearing a rich cultural heritage.

It didn’t take long for Tokayev to understand the merits of immediately calling the CSTO to the rescue: Kazakhstan signed the treaty way back in 1994. After all, Tokayev was fighting a foreign-led coup against his government.

Putin, among others, has stressed how an official Kazakh investigation is the only one entitled to get to the heart of the matter.

It’s still unclear exactly who – and to what extent – sponsored the rioting mobs. Motives abound: to sabotage a pro-Russia/China government, to provoke Russia, to sabotage BRI, to plunder mineral resources, to turbo-charge a House of Saud-style ‘Islamization’.

Rushed to only a few days before the start of the Russia-US ‘security guarantees’ in Geneva, this color revolution represented a sort of counter-ultimatum – in desperation – by the NATO establishment.

Central Asia, West Asia, and the overwhelming majority of the Global South have witnessed the lightning fast Eurasian response by the CSTO troops – who, having now done their job, are set to leave Kazakhstan in a couple of days – and how this color revolution has failed, miserably.

It might as well be the last. Beware the rage of a humiliated Empire.

thecradle.co

Various commentators have suggested that I write something about recent events in Kazakhstan. I’ve been loath to do so since my knowledge of the country is very limited, but there are some interesting things to say about what others have been writing on the topic, particularly concerning how it all relates to Russia. Notably, a certain part of the online commentariat has been keen to express indignation that Russia has “invaded” Kazakhstan to suppress a “democratic revolution”.

The rapid spread of violence in Kazakhstan generated hopes in some circles that the mob would topple the “regime” and install a new government that would somehow or other distance the country from Russia. Alternatively, the hope was that “democracy” would arrive in Kazakhstan. With this, another brick in the wall of authoritarianism would collapse, bringing closer the day when it would collapse in Russia too.

All this was somewhat unspoken, but once the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, announced that it would send troops to help restore order in Kazakhstan, and once Kazakh forces took the offensive and began clearing away anti-government protestors, all these hopes were dashed. The Kazakh government isn’t out of the woods yet. Protests continue in several cities, and things could still go horribly wrong. But at the moment it’s looking like the regime will survive. The internet’s keyboard warriors and online regime changers are seriously annoyed and looking for someone to blame. The guilty party is obvious – Russia.

However, despite the headlines in today’s newspapers about Russia sending troops to “quell” the uprising, the Kazakh state’s survial has little to do with the Russians or the CSTO. It seems as if the CSTO contingent in Kazakhstan will amount to no more than about 2,500 troops, which for a country that size is a tiny quantity. The role of the CSTO is largely symbolic – it sends a message to protestors and Kazakh security forces alike that the government isn’t backing down and has powerful external support. That should deter some of the former while putting a bit of steel in the spines of the latter. Perceptions of strength matter in situations like this, and thus the CSTO’s support perhaps makes a slight difference. But the hard work of restoring order belongs largely to the Kazakhs themselves. Whatever the press tells you, “Russia” isn’t “putting down” the uprising.

Nor can it be said that Russia has “invaded” Kazakhstan, as so many have liked to claim this past week on Twitter. Take for instance all these Tweets from the likes of one-time US Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul and former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves

Various themes repeat themselves in all these: invasion, occupation, the “crushing” of democracy, and comparisons of Russia with Nazi Germany. It is, to be frank, more than a little over the top. You can’t invade, let alone occupy, a country the size of Kazakhstan with only 2,500 troops. Furthermore, the troops are there at the invitation of the internationally recognized government – recognized by us in the West as well as by everybody else. That’s hardly an invasion.

Maybe it’s because I’m a total reactionary, but I’m not too fond of the mob, and I’ve never understood why street protest (accompanied by looting and burning) is associated with democracy. The thing is that all those complaining about the efforts to restore order in Kazakhstan aren’t too fond of the mob either, at least when it starts attacking things that they like. A year ago, McFaul and others were complaining loudly about the crowd that assaulted the Capitol building in Washington DC. And none of those whose Tweets I copied above were to be seen complaining when the Ukrainian military responded to protests in Donbass by firing rockets from aircraft and shells from multiple launch rocket systems.

Somehow, though, people are rather inclined to like the mob when it attacks somebody or something they don’t like. If it’s anti-American, that’s bad. But if rioting and looting damages Russian interests – they’re all for it.

But here’s what really gets me. Do the McFauls and Ilveses truly believe that it would be better for Kazakhstan if the Russians and CSTO didn’t help restore order and the state collapsed? There’s a very real danger of at best anarchy and at worst civil war. How would that help anybody? We’ve seen this scenario before. In Ukraine, revolution led to counter-revolution and bloody violence. In Syria, likewise. And so on. It tends not to turn out well.

But it seems like people don’t care. The attitude appears to be “The worse the better”, as long as the chaos is not at home but on Russia’s borders. Let Kazakhstan descend into anarchy – that’s to be preferred to an order backed by the Russians. Suffice it to say, I don’t agree.

irrussianality.wordpress.com

The timing of violent protests rocking Russia’s southern neighbor Kazakhstan inevitably raises questions. Russian officials are due to meet American and NATO counterparts within days to discuss far-reaching security proposals in unprecedented geopolitical negotiations.

In a surprise development, however, Russian troops are this week being deployed along with other forces from the six Central Asian states belonging to the Collective Security Treaty Organization to help restore order in Kazakhstan at the request of its president. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has accused “foreign-trained terrorist gangs” of being responsible for the dramatic unrest in the former Soviet Republic.

It seems that events this week in Kazakhstan are aimed at distracting Moscow or, worse, undermining Russia’s international standing in scheduled talks with the United States and its NATO allies concerning the bigger picture of security and peace in Europe.

Key security proposals were put forward by Moscow three weeks ago to reduce mounting tensions between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies over Ukraine. Moscow has called for a rollback in U.S. and NATO forces near its borders. This came after weeks-long Western media reports claiming that Russia was plotting to militarily invade Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly rejected those claims as baseless and hysterical. Meanwhile, there are real concerns that the NATO-backed regime in Kiev may be planning a provocation against Russia by launching an offensive on Ukraine’s breakaway southeastern region and its ethnic Russian population. The Kiev regime has been waging a civil war against the region since the NATO-backed coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014.

The U.S.-Russia security discussions are scheduled to take place on January 10 in Geneva. They will be followed by further meetings between Russian and NATO officials. A phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden at the end of last month gave the forthcoming talks a preeminence, and rightly so too. Moscow has warned that if its “red line” security demands are not responded to then it will use other military-technical methods to safeguard national security. Moscow has put a narrow timeframe on the discussions to yield satisfactory results.

Washington and its NATO allies were evidently taken aback by Moscow’s determination to draw an inviolable line on years of military expansion towards Russia’s borders, the culmination of which has precipitated the latest tensions caused by Ukraine. The gravity of Moscow’s position appears to have been registered by the Western allies who promptly scheduled the security discussions for next week.

Then along comes the upheaval sweeping Kazakhstan this week. The protests erupted on January 2 ostensibly over a hike in transport fuel prices.

Significantly, the speed with which the protests spread across this giant Central Asian country – four times the size of France – and the rapid escalation of deadly violence would indicate an extraordinary orchestration of events. Dozens of police officers have been reportedly killed by armed demonstrators. Security forces have also shot dead allegedly armed protesters. Government buildings and the international airport in the most populous city Almaty have been attacked. All this tumult in the space of two days resulted in a state of emergency being declared on January 5 and the request for security assistance from the CSTO bloc. The bloc comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.

The events have an unerring similarity to U.S.-sponsored regime-change operations that have taken place in other nations, most notably Ukraine, Syria and Belarus, among other countries. Tellingly, the White House issued an immediate denial of involvement before that possibility was even publicly suggested. Now there’s a guilty conscience at work! The American embassy in Kazakhstan had also warned of public protests over the anticipated fuel price increases.

It has been noted by astute observers that the CIA-linked Rand Corporation earlier endorsed this kind of disruption in Kazakhstan as a means for distracting Moscow with regional security apprehensions.

In the next few days, we will see if the security situation in Kazakhstan can be stabilized with support from the CSTO members and political concessions granted by President Tokayev. The fuel hikes have been revoked and the government has been sacked. Thousands of demonstrators have been arrested. Still, there are reports of ongoing armed clashes.

The timing and the who-gains question inescapably point the finger of suspicion at foreign incitement. Washington and its NATO allies are calling for the Kazakh authorities to allow “the right to peaceful protest”. Western media will no doubt crank up reports that portray restoring public order as repression by a “Russian-backed regime”. CTSO troops’ presence can be twisted into a distorted image of Kremlin-instigated “foreign occupation”. No doubt, too, the NATO-backed Kiev regime will cry foul over another “Russian invasion”.

The all-too-easy geopolitical convenience suggests there is no mere coincidence with the watershed negotiations about to get underway between Russia and the United States over Ukraine and the general encroachment of NATO on Russia’s borders.

Those negotiations were set to begin with Moscow having a moral authority to make legitimate security demands on Washington and the U.S.-led NATO alliance. It is right that the historical trend of ramping up military threats against Russia has to end. The turmoil that has suddenly blown up in Kazakhstan seems like an opportune way to undermine Russia’s resolve to challenge the U.S. and NATO over their by-now habitual aggressive policy.

That is the bigger picture that should not be lost amid the chaos unfolding in Kazakhstan.

Time and again when destabilizing events happen on the world stage, hegemon USA’s dirty hands are involved.

On January 2, violence erupted in Kazakh cities — including the country’s largest, Almaty, and its capital, Nur-Sultan.

Allegedly over high fuel prices,  Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, promised to lower gas prices.

On Wednesday, he accepted Prime Minister Askar Mamin’s resignation while saying the following:

“Calls to attack civilian and military offices are completely illegal.”

It’s “a crime! Power will not fall! We do not need conflict, but mutual trust and dialogue.”

According to Kazakh media, heads of the country’s Mangystau gas processing plant and electronic trading platform were detained over the issue of high prices.

On Wednesday, a state of emergency was declared — first in areas where protests began, then extended nationwide, 200 or more detained, according to Kazakhstan’s interior ministry.

A statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the following:

“We are closely following the events in the fraternal neighboring state.”

“We are calling for a peaceful solution to all problems in the framework of the Constitution and the law, and dialogue, and not through street riots and the violation of laws.”

“(S)teps taken by the Kazakh President Tokayev seek to stabilize the situation, promptly solving existing problems.”

“We hope that the situation in the country, which has relations of strategic partnership and alliance, fraternal, human contacts with Russia, will stabilize as soon as possible,” adding:

“The situation near the buildings of our diplomatic and consular missions remains calm.”

“According to the latest data, no casualties on the Russian side were recorded.”

Both countries share a 4,750 mile-long border.

Kazakhstan is central Asia’s largest country territorially, the world 9th largest with a population of about 19 million.

A statement by head of the country’s law enforcement agencies said extremist elements are behind days of violence.

According to political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky, “(h)ardly anyone will dispute the fact that (violence in Kazakhstan came at a time of) escalation between Russia and the West.”

What’s happening is “advantageous (to the Biden regime for) at least three reasons.”

It “distract(s) attention” from endless Kiev aggression on Donbass.

It could possibly negatively affect Sino/Russian relations (sic).

It could “provoke Moscow to participate in suppressing protests with quite predictable consequences…”

It’s “impossible to believe that the Kazakh protests erupted spontaneously,” Pogrebinsky added.

On Thursday, a statement by the current head of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries — Armenian PM Pashinyan — said the following:

“In view of the address of President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and considering the threat to national security and sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan, caused in particular by interference from the outside, the CSTO…in accordance with Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty made the decision to send CSTO Collective Peacekeeping Forces to the Republic of Kazakhstan for a limited period with the aim of stabilization and normalization of the situation in this country.”

CSTO member states include Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan.

At this time, Russian peacekeepers comprised of its aerospace forces arrived in Kazakhstan to “beg(in) performing their (assigned) tasks.”

According to the CSTO, peacekeepers from Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajilistan are involved in the operation — in response to a Kazakh request for help.

Russian media reported that a counter-terrorist operation is underway in Almaty where several hundred elements are occupying central areas of the city.

On Wednesday, Kazakh President Tokayev said the following:

“As the head of state and from now on as the chief of the Security Council, I intend to act as tough as possible” to restore law and order.

Blaming violence since January 2 on “financially motivated plotters,” he added:

“(H)ighly organized…hooligans” stormed administrative buildings — causing at least one death and numerous injuries so far.

According to head of Moscow’s Eurasian Analytical Club, Nikita Mendkovich:

Pro-Western elements in the country are trying to lead and use protests to further their own interests.

Over the past five days, violence has been larger in scale than anything earlier in what was known as a stable post-Soviet republic.

A Final Comment

Biden regime spokeswoman Psaki dismissed accusations of US involvement in Kazakhstan’s violence as “crazy Russian claims (sic).”

Since the 19th century — especially post-WW II — US dirty hands have been behind numerous destabilizing/disruptive actions worldwide.

It won’t surprise if Kazakh and Russian intelligence discover hard evidence to show that violence in the central Asian country was made-in-the USA.

stephenlendman.org

The foreign minister of Turkmenistan, Rashid Meredov, recently met with the secretary general of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States (Turkic Council), Baghdad Amreev, to discuss closer cooperation between the Central Asian nation and the Turkish-dominated bloc.

Turkmenistan is the only Turkic-speaking former Soviet republic in Central Asia that is not currently a member of the Turkic Council. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are members along with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

It has never joined either the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States, the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or the Russian- and Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), although the other four Central Asian nations have joined all three.

The above meeting occurred in the capital of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, where the parties deliberated over “the current level and prospects of cooperation between Turkmenistan and the Turkic Council, aimed at promoting constructive partnership between the countries of this format,” to quote an Azerbaijani news source.

Turkmenistan’s relationship with the Turkic Council was praised by the latter; particularly the regular participation of its president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, “in high-level events organized by the Council.”

At a summit of the Turkic Council this March the Turkmen president spoke of a common approach to “resolving urgent tasks of the global and regional agendas.”

The recent meeting also discussed the prospects of Turkmenistan being granted special status in the Turkic Council. Currently Hungary has special status. Ukraine has expressed interest becoming an observer, as has Afghanistan recently. The latter two nations have Turkic-speaking minorities. The Hungarian government’s claim to ethnic kinship with the Turkish people is the subject of another article.

Uzbekistan joined the council in 2018 after leaving the CSTO six years earlier. That trajectory may be replicated with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan; and perhaps with the SCO as well as the CSTO. (Azerbaijan and Georgia withdrew from the CSTO in 1999.)

Russia’s accommodation (the kindest word for its behavior) of Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh last year and against Armenia starting this May sounded the death knell of the CSTO.

Three members of the SCO that are not majority Turkic have Turkic minorities: Russia, China and Tajikistan. So does observer state Afghanistan. On Russia’s initiative Turkey was admitted to the SCO as an observer in 2012.

The Turkic Council was set up in 2009 with Turkey as its prime mover, five years after the nation hosted the NATO summit in Istanbul that recorded the largest-ever expansion of the military bloc. Seven new nations joined – Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia – including for the first time former republics of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The summit also launched NATO’s military partnership with nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.

Its web page says of its founding mission that it was not to be limited to Turkic-speaking-majority nations but had a broader purview. It reads in part that “by promoting deeper relations and solidarity amongst Turkic speaking countries, it aims to serve as a new regional instrument for advancing international cooperation in [the] Eurasian continent, particularly in Central Asia and [the] Caucasus.”

Its mandate is nothing less than the Eurasian continent.

The SCO has no military, hasn’t even a security component. The CSTO is a shrinking paper organization. When NATO member Turkey invaded CSTO member Armenia this May (it still has 1,000 troops there) Armenia appealed to the CSTO. The latter did nothing.

When violent clashes occurred between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (which is non-Turkic) in late April, the CSTO played no effective role in ending the conflict. However the Turkic Council met on the issue and stated, “The Turkic Council will continue to maintain close contact with brotherly Kyrgyzstan, a founding member of the Turkic Council.” Expect to see Kyrgyzstan follow Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan in departing from the CSTO.

Two weeks before the Kyrgyz-Tajik crisis the aforementioned leader of the Turkic Council, Baghdad Amreev, spoke of last year’s war against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and said: “We are very glad that Azerbaijan has liberated its de-occupied territories. We, the Turkic states, express our solidarity with Azerbaijan.”

The moribund CSTO has never occupied itself with anything other than crossborder crime and immigration. It has no real military role. The SCO has not even pretended to be a security much less a military alliance.

An expanding Turkic Council under Turkish domination will assuredly have a military component. One it will not hesitate to employ.

ANTI-BELLUM

Of the country’s 407 districts, the number under government control has decreased from 66% in May 2016 to 56% in May of this year. But the US has failed anyway. Afghan antipathy to the Western military intervention is also factor to be reckoned with. Army General John Nicholson, the US top military commander in Afghanistan, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last year that he would like several thousand more servicemen in order to stabilize the situation in that country. Some 8,400 US troops and 6,400 NATO soldiers remain in Afghanistan. The United States is involved in several conflicts at once, and a decisive win in all of them is not possible. Не who chases two hares catches neither. A withdrawal from Afghanistan will free up resources and reduce expenditures.

With Washington eyeing China as a global rival and not ruling out the use of force against Iran, the US does not need to maintain a military presence in Afghanistan. Its withdrawal does not mean that country will plunge into chaos. Quite the contrary, other nations located much closer to the conflict-ravaged country have a better chance of pulling it out of its unending quagmire.

No doubt, China could play a greater role. After all, a peaceful Afghanistan furthers the interests of the One Belt Initiative (OBI) project that is backed by the Asian Development Bank and Beijing’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Tajikistan could join those efforts. China and Pakistan have offered to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) could step in to lend a hand. The Taliban could be convinced to take a seat at the round table. Speaking at the June 2018 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO), Chinese President Xi Jinping said that in order to “facilitate peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan, we need to give full play to the role of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group.” 

In August 2016, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan formed a military alliance — the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM) — with the goal of pooling its members’ counterterrorism and intelligence efforts. China is not a Muslim state but it is battling an ethnic minority group of Islamist militants in its Muslim-dominant, oil-rich region of Xinjiang near its border with Pakistan. The chiefs of the general staffs of the four armed forces meet annually to promote the group’s agenda. Pakistan and China are involved in large-scale economic cooperation. Those two states are on their way to forming a strategic alliance.

There have been recent reports that China, Pakistan and Russia are inching closer toward forming an alliance to stabilize Afghanistan. An Uzbekistani-Pakistani Security Alliance is also reportedly emerging. Russian President Putin visited Uzbekistan October 18-20 for talks with his counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev to spur the development of this “strategic” relationship.  The two countries have a common enemy. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State in 2014. Roughly 1,500 Uzbeks have joined the group’s ranks to fight in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. Now that that jihadist group has been defeated all over the map, those volunteers are expected to return home. Last year Uzbekistan held its first joint military exercise with Russia in 12 years.

Some military preparations have also been taking place. China is building a military base for the Afghan armed forces in the province of Badakhshan. This makes Tajikistan an integral part of the Chinese-Afghan military cooperation. The short border the province shares with China is impassable by vehicle. If China’s troops enter Afghanistan, it’ll be a landmark event, as Beijing will be conducting those operations without approval from the UN Security Council, but still legally, at the request of the Afghan government that is extending an invitation to its QCCM ally.

In July, Russia and Tajikistan conducted a joint exercise in Badakhshan. Russia has recently beefed up its military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Some 7,000 Russian troops are now stationed at two military facilities collectively known as the 201st military base — in Dushanbe and Qurghon Teppa, some 100 kilometers from Dushanbe. Tajikistan is considering a role within the Russian-led Eurasian Union.

The conflict in Afghanistan has lasted too long. The US has tried and failed. It’s time for it to leave and let others solve this urgent international problem. The country must not be abandoned. Offering it a new hope for peace is the right thing to do. 

According to Ali Husseynli, the chairman of the Azerbaijani parliament's Legal and State-Building Committee, "…in the new geopolitical conditions it is possible to consider Azerbaijan's participation in the CSTO,” adding, "I do not see any serious threats to our country as a result of its participation in the CSTO. In addition, it is possible to begin with the status of an observer state in this organization." Commonspace.eu describes him as a serious politician, who is close to the presidential administration and is known for his role in offering new ideas for public discussion. If this is true, does it mean the Azerbaijani leadership is pondering the possibility of entry into the bloc? Why not? The Collective Treaty is an organization that welcomes new members. After all, Baku was a full-fledged member of the CSTO from 1993 to 1999.

If that event occurs, 70% of the South Caucasus will automatically fall within the domain of the CSTO. The organization would have a common border with Iran and gain access to the Indian Ocean.

Membership would pave the way for the acquisition of contemporary weapons systems from Russia, Belarus, and other member states at a considerable discount, or at “internal prices,” which are much lower than the rates charged internationally

Joining the CSTO is a logical step for Azerbaijan, as Russia considers this country to be a strategic ally. The two nations share a common border. Their common status as signatories to the recent Caspian Convention brings them even closer. Diasporas are also a factor dictating a need for an enhanced partnership. Baku enjoys a special relationship with Ankara. So do Moscow and Astana, the largest CSTO member states.

Everything is connected. Baku can play an important part in the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as the other members of the CSTO do. Azerbaijani-Iranian transport projects could become part of the initiative. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a natural partner to the BRI, and the CSTO and SCO cooperate closely. Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, all parties to the CSTO, also enjoy membership in the SCO. The two organizations share a document – a Memorandum of Understanding signed in Dushanbe in 2007 – that defines the guidelines on bilateral cooperation.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Azerbaijan on Aug.25. Those talks demonstrated that “human-rights issues” still cloud Azerbaijan’s relations with the West. That visitor pointedly met with opposition figures, including investigative journalist Khadija Ismayilova, to discuss “corruption and how it undermines peace, democracy, and security in Azerbaijan." The chancellor noted, "We did not find common ground on all issues. But I argued that a strong civil society must be part of an open, secular society and made clear that we would like to see this strong civil society." Nothing like this stands in the way of developing Baku’s relations with the CSTO member states.

Baku enjoys a solid, neighborly relationship with Iran and has lucrative economic projects either in the works or already up and running. The US campaign against Iran could have a negative effect on American-Azerbaijani relations, as Baku could be hit by US sanctions. Any nation can make itself less vulnerable to outside pressure of any kind by diversifying its portfolio of international relationships.

It is true that Azerbaijan is sticking to a policy of neutrality. It has a close relationship with NATO. Although a party to the EU’s Eastern Partnership program, it has refused to sign an association agreement with Brussels. It enjoys a special relationship with Israel while also supporting the idea of an independent Palestinian state.

Baku sees the advantage in preserving as much wiggle room as it can, and this policy is quite understandable. Today, the CSTO is being reformed so as to offer the new options of observer and partner-state status. This is a welcome development that is well timed! One of these statuses would perfectly be attuned to Azerbaijan’s interests.

A special official status will pave the way for information exchange, intensified contacts, participation in planning and joint exercises or even military operations, if need be. Everything is possible for a nation with an associated status except the protection guaranteed under Article 4 of CSTO’s the founding treaty, which commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member to be an armed attack against them all. “In this case all the member states, upon the request of this member state, shall immediately provide the latter with the necessary help, including military assistance, as well as provide support by all means at their disposal,” the article says.

For comparison, over 20 nations are NATO enhanced partners. Five nations – Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan, and Sweden – have been granted “Enhanced Opportunities Partner” (EOP) status to pave the way for cooperation in a tailor-made manner. Roughly 40 nations are involved in some kind of cooperation with NATO through Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), the Mediterranean Dialogue, the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) and Partners Around the Globe. Colombia, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and some other nations situated far from Europe have special relationships with the bloc.

The CSTO has repeatedly invited NATO to cooperate. After all, international terrorism is a common threat but the alliance has always said “no” under US pressure. Here is another example – 15 states plus Taiwan have the status of US non-NATO major allies. This is also a kind of informal alliance of nations tied to America by bilateral agreements.

Serbia and Afghanistan are obvious candidates for a special enhanced status within the CSTO but there may be many others to join as time goes by. Serbia is an observer in the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly. Its Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin said last year during his visit to the CSTO HQ that his country “has a great desire to deepen its cooperation with CSTO and all of its member states.” Serbian military take part in military exercises conducted by CSTO states, such as Slavic Brotherhood that took place in June.

Voices calling for Azerbaijan’s entry into the CSTO are getting louder. For instance, the idea has recently been supported by Ali Huseinli, the Head of the Russian-Azeri Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation Group and Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs. Even those in Azerbaijan who oppose the entry agree that closer cooperation with the CSTO is a good thing. Receiving a special associated status would serve the purpose.

Uzbekistan appears to have some reservations about a full-fledged membership but a kind of associated status could be just the thing to meet its foreign policy goals, especially in view of potential threats coming from Afghanistan.

Being granted a status makes sense for those who feel threatened. The CSTO is an alliance with teeth. It has a 17,000 strong collective rapid reaction force to intervene in contingency. It is the only force ready for deployment at the Tajik-Afghan border. The ISIS threat coming from Afghanistan has grown recently. Being full-fledged members, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are protected by the CSTO umbrella, while Turkmenistan has to face the threat alone. It can change, if it is granted a tailored status to define the areas of cooperation.

The growing importance of the CSTO has been confirmed by the fact that Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, has asked the alliance to create a peacekeeping force for international operations conducted under the UN auspices. Russia, Armenia and Kazakhstan have experience of international peacekeeping operations. Russian peacekeepers have recently revived the UN mission in the Golan Heights. The CSTO can contribute into potential peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and elsewhere. In April, the organization held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation in Syria. The presence of CSTO may enhance the credibility of potential peacemaking or peacekeeping international operation sanctioned by the United Nations.

The CSTO can cooperate with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, which have full-fledged membership in both groups, have signed a document defining the guidelines on developing their cooperation.

The very fact that the CSTO finds it expedient to introduce changes to its structure confirms the trend to expansion which comes along with growing clout. There are countries, probably many more than mentioned in this article, willing to join one way or another. The group is evidently evolving into a powerful entity to play a significant role in international affairs.

While public attention around the world has been riveted on the events in Syria, ISIS in Afghanistan has grown stronger as defectors from other militant groups, particularly the Pakistani Taliban, have come to join its ranks.

The two rival groups are also separately fighting the government troops. The Afghan security forces are having a hard time. This month, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo went to Afghanistan on a surprise visit to encourage peace talks between Kabul and the Taliban. He said the US was willing to take part in the negotiation process.

All in all, there are about 12,000 ISIS militants fighting in Afghanistan, many of them coming from Central Asia. Roughly 1,500 ISIS fighters are operating in Jowzjan province.  This force is not big enough to drive out the Afghan security forces or pose a threat to neighboring states, such as Turkmenistan for instance, but was anyone talking about ISIS in that region even just a couple of years ago? Nor is the Taliban a friend of Turkmenistan. Both movements pose a threat, but ISIS’s strategy is focused on fanning out across borders. 

The disruption of the Turkmenistan — China gas pipeline, with a yield of 55 billion cubic meters per year, will be a heavy blow to the economies of those states. Unlike Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Turkmenistan will have to fend for itself if attacked.

The CSTO is a group with some teeth that can offer real protection and fend off security threats. It has a 17,000-member collective rapid-reaction force and a specialized peacekeeping brigade. The peacekeeping unit is trained to operate under the auspices of the UN. The Combat Brotherhood-2017 military exercise deployed 12,000 personnel, 1,500 pieces of equipment, and 90 aircraft from all the members: Russia; Belarus; Armenia; Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan; and Tajikistan. This massive training event is held regularly in order to keep those forces in a constant state of combat readiness. Last year the CSTO adopted a new security strategy that will be effective until 2025 and which includes an expanded list of threats to be addressed.

The CSTO is ready to deploy its forces at the Tajik-Afghan border if necessary. Command-and-control entities are being prepared for combat operations. Tajikistan is secure to its CSTO membership. Moreover, the CSTO can cooperate with the powerful Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).  An idea to merge the two organizations has been floating around since 2014. Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are members of both the CSTO and the SCO. Both organizations have signed a document on the priorities of their cooperation.

The Turkmen Army boasts only 18,500 troops (3,000 in the air force and 500 in the navy). It also has a 12,000-strong border-guard force. Personnel training is a problem.  The border is poorly protected and drug trafficking is almost unhindered. Drugs travel onward to Kazakhstan and Russia. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted, the NATO military contingent in Afghanistan is doing nothing to halt drug production and trafficking.

Turkmenistan is also threatened by the religious extremism that is spreading throughout the country. A large number of Turkmen in regions of Afghanistan, who are traditionally strong supporters of the Taliban, have switched their allegiance to ISIS in the last year. Inter-tribal feuds don’t make the country any stronger.

The situation is precarious, but Turkmen officials deny there is any problem along the border with Afghanistan, rejecting any offers of assistance from friendly neighboring states that are affected by the flow of drugs  and the potential threat. 

Uzbekistan is less exposed to invasion because the Afghan border is short enough to be well protected. Any militants would have to enter via Tajikistan, where Russia has a military presence.  But the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan pledged its allegiance to ISIS in 2014. Roughly 1,500 Uzbeks have joined the group’s ranks to fight in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere.  They can always come home. 

The spread of jihadist ideology could undermine the country from within. Tashkent withdrew from the CSTO in 2012. It has been a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) since 2001. Both groups handle security issues but, unlike the CSTO, the SCO has no rapid-reaction force to lend a helping hand in a crisis. Last year Uzbekistan held its first joint military exercise with Russia in 12 years.

The jihadists are a shared menace. In 2017, Russian special services uncovered 56 sleeper cells, detained 1,018 militants, eliminated 78 terrorists, and banned 17,500 people suspected of having ties to terrorist organizations from entering the country. Uyghur terrorists are also fighting in the ranks of ISIS and pose a threat to China. According to Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov, "The bandits are most actively moving [from Syria and Iraq] to the territory of Afghanistan, where Daesh positions have already been established, and from there they are able to infiltrate Central Asia, Iran, China, and India. Using their foothold in Afghanistan, the terrorists are also attempting to carry out attacks against Russia." 

The potential spillover of extremists from northern Afghanistan into the states of Central Asia is a shared problem that must be tackled jointly.  The threat can be effectively countered within the framework of the CSTO and SCO. 

The force has been created upon the request of Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations. It was not made precise which country or region the peacekeepers will go to but Mr. Semeryakov emphasized that roughly 7,000 Islamic State militants operating in Afghanistan pose a threat to the CSTO.

The CSTO has boosted its defense capabilities. It has a  17,000 strong collective rapid reaction force and a specialized peacekeeping brigade. Last October, the CSTO held Combat Brotherhood-2017 military exercise involving 12,000 personnel, 1,500 pieces of hardware, 90 aircraft from all the members: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The forces trained to preserve peace in a country situated in the Caucasus. This was an exercise of unparalleled scope. It was the first time the training episodes were performed within a single concept. The large-scale training event is held regularly to greatly boost the professional skills of many soldiers. These skills will be indispensable for the personnel assigned to peacekeeping missions.

Armenia and Kazakhstan have taken part in peacekeeping missions outside the CSTO. Russia boasts great experience, which includes four peacekeeping operations in the post-Soviet space: Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian peacekeepers have been deployed to such faraway places as Cambodia, Angola, Chad and the Golan Heights. The Russian Navy has fought pirates in the Indian Ocean together with EU and NATO task forces.

The CSTO is the only entity focused exclusively on security. It has no other dimensions, such as economic cooperation, to distract it from peacekeeping missions.

Last year, the organization adopted a new security strategy effective till 2025. The document includes an expanded list of threats to counter. Today, the bloc is able to respond to a wide range of them. And it does. The CSTO reacts as the situation at the Tajik-Afghan border deteriorates. A joint service center is setup to maintain armored vehicles. Russia plans to establish a collective aviation force to be added to the ground component. The plan will inevitably be followed by creating regional air defense and communication systems.

Russia is trusted internationally as a protector of national sovereignty. This is a notion the Western peacekeepers often put aside. It’s enough to recall the bombing campaign in Serbia in 1999 and the 2011 air operation in Libya. NATO operates illegally in Kosovo. The West’s peacekeeping performance is nothing to brag about. As a UN Security Council member Russia will scrutinize peacekeeping mandates to protect the host states’ interests. The lesson of Libya has been learnt. Moscow will not step on the same rake.

The CSTO can significantly contribute into potential peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan, Syria and other countries. A large scale UN-sanctioned international operation in Libya is a possibility. The presence of CSTO force trained for peacekeeping missions will enhance the credibility of UN or OSCE operations to make a host country agree to the terms it would otherwise reject.

The CSTO could link an international peacekeeping force with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to expand the international representation. The idea to merge the two organizations has been debated since 2014. Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members of both the CSTO and the SCO.

Russia and Belarus could join a UN force in Ukraine if the Security Council okays such an operation. The CSTO can also cooperate with the OSCE. The relationship has been on the rise since both organizations signed a document on priorities of cooperation. Contacts have been maintained through different forums, including the OSCE Annual Security Review Conference, the Forum for Security Co-operation, conferences and seminars.

The fact that the United Nations has asked the CSTO to create a peacekeeping force shows that the organization is viewed as an important tool for peacebuilding. Its global clout has grown immensely. The UN needs its contribution to promoting global security. With so many hot spots on the world map, the CSTO peacekeepers may see action pretty soon.