TJ COLES

In a blatant threat to China’s presence, Djibouti recently hosted the US-led “Allied Appreciation Day,” in which Britain, France, and Japan showcased “a variety of equipment that is part of their military operations in the Horn of Africa” (HOA). The Pentagon’s Combined Joint Task Force-HOA reported that the events fused Armistice, Remembrance, and Veterans’ Days. Attendees participated in “demonstrations featuring a variety of allied military capabilities to include a military flyover.”

Successive Djiboutian regimes have clung to power by promoting their small country in the Horn of Africa as a vital tool in the West’s quest for global dominance. During Europe’s late-19^th century Scramble for Africa, the French colonists understood the strategic importance of the region for trade ships and naval deployments. After the Second World War and particularly after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US, the Pentagon seized France’s imperial mantle and expanded a major military base, Camp Lemonnier (which, for many years, the US misspelled by leaving out an “n”).

Today, American military and political planners fear the presence of China in what they consider to be “their” African territory. In 2017, China opened its first, and at the time of writing, only confirmed foreign military base — the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Support Base — 30 minutes northwest of Camp Lemonnier.

As the right-wing NY Post cited dubious warnings by unnamed US officials about China’s construction of a secret base in Equatorial Guinea (EG) on the other side of Africa, the US Africa Command has quietly expanded its operations in Djibouti.

A former colonial power maintains its grip on Djibouti

Djibouti has a population of around 1 million. With 48 deaths per 1,000 live births, its infant mortality rate remains one of the worst in the world, while life expectancy hovers around 67. Over 400,000 Djiboutians live in extreme poverty, with 90 percent of the nation’s food dependent on imports. Around 60 percent of the population is ethnic Issa (sometimes broadly referred to as “Somali”) and 35 percent Afar (a.k.a., Danakil).

Between 600 and 1000 migrants and asylum seekers pass through Djibouti daily, nearly half of whom are children. The US Department of Labor (DoL) says: “Children in Djibouti are subjected to the worst forms of child labor.” In addition to begging and selling drugs, “[s]treet work, such as shining shoes, washing and guarding cars, cleaning storefronts, sorting merchandise, collecting garbage, begging, and selling items” is common. In addition to human trafficking, Djiboutian children are at risk of rape and other forms of sexual abuse. The country hosts “the largest number of foreign military installations in the world, including thousands of military personnel and security contractors.” The DoL concludes: “This foreign military presence heightens the risks of commercial sexual exploitation of girls.”

Western colonial rule in what is now Djibouti began in the mid-1800s. France purchased land on which it established stations for the steamships that passed through Egypt’s Suez Canal, north of the territory. In the decades that followed the Second World War, the broader region was known as French Somaliland. A likely-rigged vote in 1958 saw the population choose to remain under French control. In response to several factors including domestic independence movements, Somali claims to the territory, and continued Ethiopian usage of the ports, the French established the Territory of the Afars and the Issas in 1967.

A decade later, and following negotiations with the colonial power, Hassan Gouled Aptidon of African People’s League for Independence, became President, forming the People’s Rally for Progress. Gouled governed the one-party state until his alleged nephew, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, replaced him in 1999. With France’s Indian Ocean navy squadron based there, the Franco-Djiboutian Defense Treaty 1977 granted the “former” colonial power unimpeded access to air and maritime facilities.

Enter America: “Use Djibouti,” maintain a “pro-Western course”

Basing his assessment on a commissioned CIA report in 1979, Paul B. Henze of the National Security Council Staff advised President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, that the French military presence in Djibouti would be enough to prevent the Soviet-backed Ethiopian government from invading. “[I]f we are going to continue to use Djibouti (and there are good reasons for doing this), we need to be frank with the French about our need for their alertness and support there.”

President Gouled saw foreign de facto occupation as a bulwark against potential aggression by Djibouti’s neighbors, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. A heavily-redacted CIA Intelligence Estimate from 1986 describes the country as basically a city-state. “Largely because of its excellent deepwater port and chokepoint location on the Bab el Mandeb Strait (sic),” which separates the Gulf of Aden from the Red Sea, “Djibouti has long been subject to competing African, Arab, Soviet, and Western interests.” Indicative of Cold War paranoia, the Soviet “interests” highlighted at the outset of the report are later revealed to be scholarship programs and a maritime visit.

The CIA lauded Gouled’s “pro-Western course,” rejecting, for instance, aid packages offered by Libya’s then-ruler, Muammar Gaddafi. “[I]n a region dominated by Marxist and military regimes, the Gouled regime enjoys French security protection and supports Western interests,” particularly by providing the US with a port, airfield, and reconnaissance airspace.

When Ethiopia’s ruler was deposed in 1991, Eritrea gained independence. Robbed of its port, Ethiopia turned to Djibouti, but Afar rebels known as the Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD) based themselves in Ethiopia. The Dini faction of FRUD later claimed that Ethiopia was supporting Djibouti’s Issa-majority government. A Civil War ensued leading to a peace agreement in 1994, when a small number of Afar were given token positions in Gouled’s government.

Post-9/11: “The primary base for US operations”

Significant elite US interests in Djibouti began after 9/11, when the Navy and the Central Command (CENTCOM) effectively took over the old French Foreign Legion fort, Camp Lemonnier, and established a permanent presence. In 2002 under President George W. Bush, the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) began surveillance and reconnaissance of alleged “al-Qaeda” operatives in neighboring Somalia from Lemonnier.

By the end of that year, at least 800 US Special Operations Forces were present. The period also saw the launch of exercises by the 24^th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

In November 2002, six Yemeni “al-Qaeda” suspects were killed by a CIA Predator operator whose drone was launched from Djibouti. In a rare moment of honesty, the New York Times article exposing the attack added: “The sea lanes near Djibouti are particularly crucial since they are used for commercial shipping and to transport American war matériel to the Persian Gulf.” In May 2003, CJTF-HOA personnel had arrived.

Lemonnier is described by the US Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) as “the largest U.S. military installation in Africa.” The CNA highlights Djibouti’s importance to rival powers: its regional “stability,” “strategically important position next to the Bab el Mandeb (sic), a critical maritime chokepoint[,]” while serving “as the main port for landlocked Ethiopia.” The oddly-named “Commander, Navy Installations Command” describes Lemonnier as “the primary base of operations for U.S. Africa Command in the Horn of Africa.”

Between 2004 and 2011, Presidents Bush and Barack Obama respectively sold Djibouti a total of $68 million-worth of arms and services under a single program. In late-2006, the US and Britain used Ethiopia as a proxy to invade Somalia and replace the moderate Islamic Courts Union government with an extremist entity called the Transitional Federal Government. Djibouti later posed as a peace-broker between the warring Somali and Ethiopian factions, but behind the scenes the Franco-American-backed Djiboutian Armed Forces were training hundreds of Somali military officers.

Besides using Djibouti as a base for the CIA, Special Forces, the Navy, and other operations, the US trains domestic enforcement units in the country. In 2007, as domestic tensions simmered with the Afar people and potential conflicts brewed with neighbors, the Marines were pictured instructing the Djibouti National Police “on basic weapons procedures and room clearing.

US psy-ops in the Horn of Africa: celebrating MLK on a military base and “the gift of hope”

In 2008, the newly-created US military alliance known as AFRICOM took over operations in Djibouti from CENTCOM. That June, the French and British joined with the militaries of 10 African nations to cooperate on maritime operations.

At the time, countering Somali “piracy” was a widely-used pretext for regional dominance. As the transfer to AFRICOM was arranged, CJTF-HOA continued its propaganda offensive against Djiboutians by painting US military personnel in a positive light. Staff “donated more than 50 book bags containing school supplies, flip flops, shampoo, soap and treats to girls at Center Aicha Bogoreh [sic],” in Djibouti City.

As he rang in Christmas in 2008 with the lighting of trees and singing of festive songs, Rear Admiral Philip Greene said of the Navy: “We are sharing our time and talents with the people of Eastern Africa, giving them the gift of hope for a better, more secure future.” The “gift of hope” is part of US psychological operations, soft power, or political warfare as the tactic is interchangeably called.

In January 2009, in a prime example of the soft power tactic, CJTF-HOA personnel “celebrated” Martin Luther King Day with a program entitled, “Realizing the Vision,” in which AFRICOM highlighted King’s life through speeches, a slideshow, and a performance of the somber Sam Cooke ballad, “A Change is Gonna Come.”

A “Hollywood Handshake Tour” later that year took the “gift of hope” to new heights with visits by industry b-listers Christian Slater, Zac Levi, Joel Moore, and Kal Penn, who each “personally thank[ed] members for their sacrifice.” In July, the Navy Seabees and CJTF-HOA built a canteen for the newly-constructed Douda de Ecole Primary School. A year later, the US hosted a meeting by the Djiboutian Chamber of Commerce in an effort to present the de facto US occupation as an investment opportunity for the business class.

As the PR-friendly pleasantries continued, so too did the military training. In September, officers of the Ugandan Senior Command and Staff College visited Djibouti to study with the CJTF-HOA. Facilitated by the Lemonnier-based 449^th Air Expeditionary Group (or Flying Horsemen), Ethiopian Air Force officers convened with Djiboutian forces to discuss operations including airdrops.

Remote warfare: overcoming “the tyranny of distance”

In addition to acting as a hub for the training of Ethiopian, Somali, Ugandan, and other forces, Djibouti hosts regional propaganda broadcasters and privatization outfits that operate as aid agencies.

A 2010 US Embassy cable notes that Djibouti is home to “[US government] broadcasting facilities used by [the] Arabic-language Radio Sawa and the Voice of America Somali Service, the only USAID Food for Peace warehouse for pre-positioned emergency food relief outside [the continental U.S.], and naval refueling facilities for U.S. and coalition ships.”

That same year, Lemonnier hosted Africa’s first Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Summit Conference. Basing forces near strategic locations and using digital relays to aid drone strikes defeats what the Pentagon calls “the tyranny of distance.”

Seated in joint operations rooms, at least three British officers in the Camp assisted CJTF-HOA-led drone operations against targets in Yemen. By the mid-2010s, drone killings had been committed from Djibouti against people in Afghanistan, Mali, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen.

In 2012, BT (formerly British Telecom) built a $23m fiber-optic cable for the US Defense Information Systems Network and National Security Agency. The cable ran from the US Air Force-run Royal Air Force Croughton (north of London) to Naples (Italy) and onto Camp Lemonnier. The broadband service was 30 times faster than commercial capacity and could carry live drone video.

Describing Lemonnier and by extension Djibouti as “a sun-baked Third World outpost,” the Washington Post reported that the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) was instrumental in setting up Lemonnier and its crucial drone component, with at least 300 JSOC personnel working secretly at the base.

Enter China: threats are “exaggerated”

The Trump-era Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff kept a close eye on China’s presence in Djibouti. It wrote: “In 2017, China established in Djibouti its first foreign military base. The base looks out on the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits in the Gulf of Aden, through which passes nearly 10 percent of the world’s total seaborne-traded petroleum.” The report highlighted the perceived threat to US energy market dominance. “This comprises 6.2 billion barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and refined petroleum. Together with China’s anti-piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden and growing presence in the Gulf of Guinea,” it concluded, “the base has extended China’s military reach off Africa’s coasts and into the Indian Ocean.”

China and Djibouti established diplomatic relations in 1979 but did not expand militarily until 2009, with China’s counter-piracy operations in the nearby Gulf of Aden. In 2015, China announced plans to join seven other countries, including the US, to establish its first and only foreign base in Djibouti.

Under the subheading “Don’t Believe the Headlines,” the US Center for Naval Analysis wrote: “media reporting on Chinese economic ties is sometimes exaggerated.” It does not list threats to US “interests” or allies in the context of China’s military expansion, but rather China’s intentions to launch counter-piracy, intelligence collection, evacuation missions, counterterrorism, and peacekeeping operations (i.e., China’s contribution to UN forces).

In July 2015, the Pentagon reported that the 1^st Marine Regiment, the 15^th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), the Navy Battalion Landing Team 3^rd Battalion, and the USS Anchorage exercised on Arta Beach, Djibouti. Executing attack and maneuver drills with machine guns, squads, and night attacks, the 15^th MEU went ashore “for sustainment training to maintain and enhance [their] skills.” Between September and October 2015, the 15^th MEU participated in a bilateral training exercise with the French 5^th Overseas Combined Arms Regiment.

The 15^th MEU’s reconnaissance element trains Rapid Response Teams to send ashore in Djibouti, Hawaii, Iraq, and Singapore and to “push secure voice, video, and data back to the ship with a very small foot print.” Maj. Matthew Bowman of the Communications Department, said: “we have … to be able to project power ashore quickly.”

What US forces do with the training

Much of the US-led allied training traces back to Djibouti. So-called violent extremist organizations are entities that operate outside domestic law and make local environments unsafe for US operations and unstable for US investors. For these reasons, the Pentagon seeks to counter VEOs.

Through military information support operations (MISOs), the Lemonnier-based CJTF-HOA oversees the Ohio-based 346^th Tactical Psychological Operations Company (Airborne). Under the rubric of the African Union Mission in Somalia to counter al-Shabaab, the MISO operations involve training the Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF). Because locals tend to broadly support extremist groups as leverage against US imperialism, PSYOPs try to propagandize locals into backing the US.

Another example is the Sicily-based Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force 12 (SPMAGTF-12), which worked with the California-based 4^th Force Reconnaissance Company to train the UPDF to counter the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a cohort of bandits which seeks to overthrow the US-backed government of Uganda.

The continued existence of the LRA gives the US military an excuse to maintain a troop presence, or at least proxy presence, in Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan, where LRA leader Joseph Kony is supposedly hiding. He is a “Christian” version of the omnipresent Osama bin Laden, who for many years offered the US a pretext to invade multiple nations from the Middle East to Central Asia. The SPMAGTF-12 relies on support from Marines in Lemonnier.

Much of the US activity in Djibouti is either covert and therefore not reported or confined to press releases by the Pentagon. Recently, however, CNN painted the Pentagon as the Lone Ranger riding to the rescue in its coverage of the presence of the US Army 1^st Battalion 75^th Ranger Regiment in Djibouti, which was ready to deploy for supposed evacuations in Ethiopia.

Beyond the growing deployment of ground and special forces in the Horn of Africa, the US Navy is making waves. In August 2021, Comorian and Somali personnel worked with US service members as part of Cutlass Express at L’Escale Marine, Djibouti, to practice “visit, board, search and seizure” procedures and simulate various scenarios, including counter-piracy.

A de facto occupation

The US presence in Djibouti is a de facto occupation which ensures American naval dominance of the region, as well as continuing training of regional forces and growing surveillance operations. European militaries are also benefiting from shared, US-led exercises in the region. The build-up exacerbates a power struggle between what the US hopes is a unified West against what they are trying to turn into an increasingly isolated China.

In recent years, the US has sought to weaponize Japan by pushing successive governments to drop the Peace Clause of their constitution and turn up the heat on China. In September, the Japanese Ambassador to Djibouti, Umio Otsuka, met with the US Army Commander at Lemonnier, Maj. Gen. William Zana, “to dAir Forceiscuss future plans for combined cooperation.” Under CJTF-HOA, the so-called Japanese Self-Defense Forces trained in target practice at the Djiboutian Police Range.

In November, a US Air Force B-1B Lancer from the 9^th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron and a C-130 Hercules, two F-35 Lightning IIs from the UK Carrier Strike Group’s HMS Queen Elizabeth, two French Dassault Mirage 2000s, and a Japanese P-3 Orion flew missions over Djibouti. In December, it was reported that, as part of Exercise Bull Shark, Spanish forces had trained with the 82^nd Expeditionary Rescue Squadron in the Gulf of Aden, “to strengthen personnel recovery capabilities in support of the Warfighter Recovery Network initiative throughout Africa.”

As the Pentagon takes the brute-force approach to countering China’s Africa presence, the US increasingly relies on old proxy outfits like NATO while developing new ones, like allied forces in the Horn of Africa. Given that all three major powers have nuclear weapons, Western concerns over pandemics and climate change could prove ephemeral in the face of a miscalculation or worse, a deliberate military action.

thegrayzone.com

In the aftermath of the incident, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, revealed at a press-conference that about 800 US troops are now based in Niger – more than in any other African country. The press conference came after several US senators expressed surprise that the US had such a large military presence on the continent, and Niger in particular.

"I didn't know there was 1,000 troops in Niger," Senator Lindsey Graham said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "This is an endless war without boundaries and no limitation on time and geography … You've got to tell us more."

Indeed, the size of the presence was a big surprise for lawmakers as well as public in general. The vast majority of Americans probably had no idea that the US even had military troops participating in combat missions in Africa before the incident in Niger. The US has previously acknowledged it has troops there. But it's never gone into much detail. Niger has also allowed the United States to build a large drone base at an estimated cost of $100 million near the central trading city of Agadez. Dunford acknowledged the lack of communication between military leaders and the Congress, and said he and Secretary of Defense James Mattis would "double" their efforts to communicate better with senators.

American forces entered the region en masse in the early 2000s, when the United States began training and equipping militaries in dozens of African countries. According to Dunford, a total of 6,000 US troops are deployed in 53 African countries today. They are conducting 3,500 exercises, programs, and engagements each year – almost 10 missions each day. The number of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) across the continent rose from 450 in 2012 to 1,300 in 2017 (of 8,000 SOF deployed globally this year). The United Nations recognizes 54 countries in Africa. It means that only one of them is free of US military presence!

Officially, the United States only has one military base in Africa — Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. But SOF outfits, including the Green Berets, the Navy SEALs and Marine and Air Force commandos, also use an air base at Moron in southern Spain for Africa operations. Other operating sites are called “forward operating sites”, “cooperative security locations” (CSL) or “contingency locations” in host countries.

According to the AFRICOM 2017 Posture statement, the command runs a network of 46 sites, including two forward operating sites (Djibouti’s Camp Lemonnier and a base on the United Kingdom’s Ascension Island off the west coast of Africa), 13 cooperative security locations, and 31 “non-enduring” contingency locations. This is an increase by 10 locations—a 28 percent jump—in just over two years. 

African bases have long been essential, for instance, to Washington’s ongoing shadow war in Yemen, which has seen a significant increase in drone strikes under the Trump administration. Djibouti is essential for operations in the Arabian Peninsula. CSL Entebbe in Uganda is a hub for surveillance aircraft, carrying out mission across the continent. The US sprawling, ever-expanding network of bases provides the crucial infrastructure for cross-continental combat by US and allied forces, especially France, which boasts a large military presence (5,000 troops) of its own.

Many activities the Pentagon has described as “advise and assist” in nature seem to be indistinguishable from combat  by any basic definition. Claiming troops are only “assisting” or “training” local forces is the way that the US military establishes a foothold in African countries.

Private military contractors have become another element of US presence on the continent.

The Trump administration is preparing to dismantle key Obama-era limits on drone strikes and commando raids outside conventional battlefields. This will lead to drastic escalation in the use of forces in Africa. Somalia has already been declared an “area of active hostilities,” temporarily bringing it under less restrictive war-zone rule.

The military operations in Africa have never been specifically authorized by Congress, let alone discussed and debated by the American public. The Authorization for Use of Force, adopted right after the Sept. 11, 2001, says the president is authorized to use force against the planners of the attacks and those who harbor them. It does not cover mere supporters of such groups and associated forces. Nevertheless, the legislation has been used for 16 years now to justify conflicts in many countries, including Afghanistan, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Georgia, Iraq, Kenya, the Philippines, Somalia and Yemen. 

The 1973 War Powers Resolution is a federal law in force intended to check the president's power to commit the United States to an armed conflict without the consent of the US Congress. It provides that under certain circumstances a President can deploy troops into combat situations, but there are periodic reporting requirements for a President as well as time limits on how long troops can remain engaged in conflicts without a formal declaration of war or specific congressional authorization. The law was breached when the US bombed Yugoslavia in 1999. It is also not observed in Africa because formally the US is not at war there, despite the fact that it is waging combat operations where servicemen lose their lives. The October 4 tragedy in Niger is just another example. In May, a Marine was killed in Somalia.

The military presence in Africa will probably grow in the future. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, indicated that the United States may increase its military presence. "The war is morphing. We're going to see more actions in Africa, not less," he said.

The policy marks a stark about-face from Trump's campaign declarations that the US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman. The military operations in Africa suggest otherwise. The fighting in Africa seldom hits media headlines but it does not change the fact that the US is waging a war. Niger is the perfect illustration of America’s permanent war posture around the world, where combat operations are conducted with little or no public scrutiny and no congressional authorization. The administration appears to view the international problems mostly through a military prism.

Photo: thenation.com

The London-based Reuters news agency reports that the materialization of this Chinese military base on the Horn of Africa is already a source of great concern for India, which is afraid that it will become «another of China’s ‘string of pearls’ of military alliances and assets ringing India, including Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka».

But military bases do not suddenly materialize on maps without the consent of the host country. Beijing and Djibouti have been conducting a friendly, neighborly dialog for several years, in accordance with «the common interest of the people from both sides,» and under the auspices of which China agreed to build a naval base to support to its military ships as they sail ever farther into the world’s seas. The official description explains that «[t]he base will ensure China’s performance of missions, such as escorting, peace-keeping and humanitarian aid in Africa and west Asia».

However, this is not an exhaustive list of the missions that the Chinese naval base in Djibouti will undertake. Naturally the highest-priority items on its plate will be the military missions of the People’s Republic of China, including military cooperation and joint exercises. The base will defend China’s interests abroad and ensure the security of its international strategic seaways.

The British news agency quoted the People’s Liberation Army Daily’s assertion that the facility «would increase China’s ability to ensure global peace, especially because it had so many U.N. peacekeepers in Africa and was so involved in anti-piracy patrols». This is actually an interesting detail: the recalibrating of the zones of influence in Africa has spawned a host of bloody conflicts, the beneficiaries of which have traditionally been France, the United Kingdom, and the US. China is the new kid on the block in Africa. However, in the last ten years it has already made itself at home on the African market, with its cheap goods and services, displacing Britain and significantly weakening France’s position. Yet the United States is still getting exports of minerals and other resources from the African continent.

In recent years China has overtaken France in the quest for African resources and is gaining on the US, which is stoking a conflict of interest that will shape the future of the entire African region. It was no coincidence that as soon as China established a palpable presence in Africa, the US created the AFRICOM military command in 2008. With a fixed contingent of marines stationed there, that military headquarters is capable of undertaking any mission in any African country. But now AFRICOM’s main job is to train African armies in Ethiopia, Sudan (Darfur), Uganda, Rwanda, Congo, the Seychelles, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Nigeria, Liberia, Cameroon, Gabon, Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania. From their very inception those armies were obligated to be allied to the US. Private military companies (PMCs) should also be added to this list, such as Protection Strategies Inc, DynCorp International, AECOM, and Pacific Architects and Engineers, tasked with countering both the threat to American interests posed by radical Islam as well as, quite understandably, China’s increasing influence in Africa.

It won’t be so easy to just yank the Yanks out of Africa at this point, however…

The precedents set in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria – when compared with what is outlined in China’s White Paper detailing «China’s Policy in Africa» – are just too egregious for the leaders of African countries to overlook. China is sparing no expense to promote its economic interests. It has invested large sums not only in the construction of manufacturing facilities, but also in infrastructure improvements for its partners. And meanwhile, no one’s asking questions in Beijing about respect for human rights, democratization, or the environment. They have no use for any of the usual criticisms found in the West’s repertoire. Some believe that the «Arab Spring» itself was incited by the Americans on account of its growing rivalry with China in the region. Everyone remembers that it was France that was the biggest proponent of the military operation against Libya in March 2011, in order to gain access to Libyan oil and gas deposits that could be mined, and also to be free to push the wares produced by its military-industrial complex onto the African market.

But what does a tiny little country of 750,000 people who live between the Gulf of Aden and the desert matter, compared with a global collision between the interests of Beijing and the West? One possible answer suggests itself: within the 24,0000 sq. kilometers of the nation of Djibouti, there are four – and now five! military bases. The US base is the largest in Africa, plus there are bases belonging to Italy, Japan, France, and now – China. Djibouti is a port city at the mouth of the Red Sea, it is the gateway to the Suez Canal. Through it passes all the Suez traffic and half of the exports coming from Ethiopia. In conjunction with its free trade zone, Djibouti is of great economic interest, but what’s most important is its capacity to accommodate US Navy warships as large as cruisers and to provision them with fuel, fresh water, and food.

The Americans were the first to post their own guard at this «gateway», through which sail approximately 17,000 ships and almost one billion tons of cargo (data from 2015) each year. Obviously they’re not interested in getting new Chinese neighbors here. And even though China currently only boasts one naval base to their 800, that one is still a win for Beijing. The Chinese version of conquering Africa has a much better chance of success in Djibouti, which has a per capita GDP of less than $3,000 per year (putting it at 167th in the world) and where half of the population lives below the poverty line. And even if the Chinese aircraft carriers the Liaoning and the Shandong (which is now afloat and being readied for operations) are not able to enter the port of Djibouti because of their size, China’s first foreign naval base is an important milestone in Beijing’s geopolitical expansion.

Sitting astride the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which separates the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean and sees 30 percent of the world’s shipping traffic, Djibouti has become the center of geostrategic competition in Africa in recent years. China’s bid to build its first military base in the small desert nation made headlines late last year, especially due to the installation’s proximity to the biggest American facility on the African continent. Japan has also recently stepped into the fray: Tokyo has entered into negotiations with Djibouti’s government to expand its small military outpost there and to bring in C-130 transport aircraft, Bushmaster armored vehicles and extra personnel.

After Djibouti’s long-time President Ismail Omar Guelleh decided to kick out a secondary American outpost in the south of the country to make space for China’s future facility, Tokyo naturally grew concerned that its only African facility could face a similar fate. Japan realized that Guelleh’s increasingly erratic behavior could seriously imperil its national security, especially after the Djibouti strongman secured a fourth consecutive term in power in April by killing dozens of opposition figures, gagging journalists and torturing activists.

In Asia, Japan’s parallel quest for allies has continued apace. China’s large-scale land reclamations in the South and East China Seas have burned bridges with many ASEAN countries. Mounting evidence of the artificial islands’ military purposes will accelerate that trend even more. As Thomas Shugart showed, Beijing is now able to strike targets in the Philippines and Singapore with land-attack ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and airpower from Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reef. The Chinese military could also deploy an anti-access area-denial (A2/AD) system overnight. Mischief Reef’s land perimeter alone is the size of the District of Columbia, boasting sufficient space for mobile attack systems and a 10 thousand foot runway. This aggressive new posture has thoroughly undercut the mantra of “a peaceful rise.”

As such, Tokyo is looking to deepen its ties with those countries that share its unease with China’s resurgence. In September, the Japanese government announced it would deliver two new patrol ships to Vietnam after a previous delivery of ten patrol vessels to the Philippines. Additionally, and after tough negotiations, Japan and South Korea put to rest the issue of “comfort women” in a deal brokered with the help of the United States in December 2015. When the agreement was reached, President Obama praised all sides for demonstrating great “courage and vision to forge a lasting settlement to this difficult issue.” While some groups with ties to North Korea (like Chong Dae Hyup) are trying to force Seoul’s hand and undermine the agreement, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and his South Korean counterpart Park Geun-hye, the daughter of South Korean general Park Chung-hee, have jointly managed to calm nationalist elements and secure what was widely heralded as a big diplomatic win.

The Japan-United States-Australia Trilateral Strategic Dialogue, constitutes another key partnership for Tokyo. At their most recent meeting in Washington this past July, the foreign ministers of the three countries united to express their opposition to China’s reclamation moves in the South China Sea.

While Japan has been energetic in organizing a united front, it would be a mistake to think China is quaking in its boots. Paradoxically, it is not Chinese machinations threatening Southeast Asia’s security balance so much as it is America’s wavering commitment to the region. In the United States, widespread opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has sent shivers down the spines of many Asian leaders. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong gave an impassioned defense of the trade deal, taking the example of Japan as an American ally whose trust in the American nuclear umbrella would be shaken if the trade deal does not pass.

Other ASEAN leaders have been more blunt. Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ firebrand new president, is actively shifting his country away from Washington and pursuing a more accommodating foreign policy with China despite their ongoing South China Sea disputes. Similarly, Australia’s Malcolm Turnbull has kept an open door to Chinese interests and has leased the Darwin strategic port to a Chinese company closely associated with the military for 99 years. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has warned that the Chinese could use the facility to spy on the more than one thousand U.S. Marines that deploy to the port every year. Even more disturbingly, Australia’s unexpected decision to award its largest ever-military contract (to build 12 submarines) to France is rumored to have been the result of Canberra’s deference to Beijing.

While Japan’s diplomatic forays in both Africa and Asia have helped band together a number of countries with shared interests, the specter of a diminished American presence in the Asia-Pacific threatens to deal a devastating blow to regional cohesion and stability. As China relentlessly pursues its land reclamation activities in the contested waters of the South China and East China Seas, Washington (and especially the next American president) would do well to remember just how much hinges on its security guarantees.

nationalinterest.org

Djibouti has an important role to play in the military planning. The small republic guards the entrance to the Red Sea and Suez Canal to make it a perfect springboard for launching military interventions in Africa and the Middle East.

Housing 4,000 military and civilian personnel, Camp Lemonnier, the US military base in the country, is the hub of a network of American drone bases in Africa. It is used for aerial strikes at insurgents in Yemen, Nigeria and Somalia, as well as exercising control over the Bab-el-Mandeb strait – a strategic maritime waterway linking the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. In 2014, America signed a new 20-year lease on the base with the Djiboutian government, and committed over $1.4 billion to modernize and expand the facility in the years to come.

According to Stars and Stripes, the US Air Force deployed F-16 fighters and KC-135 to Djibouti in July. Until the publication, the information had been kept secret. The aircraft remain on standby amid concerns over the situation in South Sudan, including threats to the lives of American citizens there. In July, about 50 combat-equipped troops were sent to protect US diplomatic personnel amid widespread violence and civil unrest in that country. The US has provided assistance in form of training and equipping of the elite presidential guard; employment of foreign instructors to teach army recruits; development of riverine forces; training of commandos. This aid is rendered despite the fact that South Sudan uses child soldiers.

Under Obama, this country receives waivers to the prohibition on US security assistance under the Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA), despite recent reports by UNICEF that children in the country are forcefully recruited into the armed forces. The law prohibits the US government from furnishing security assistance or selling arms to any government that has been identified as recruiting children into its armed forces or armed groups that it supports. In theory, the administration is to sanction such countries under the law, which is circumvented with the help of waivers.

Djibouti is also situated close to Yemen, where the US has recently got involved in the military conflict between the Saudi-Arabia – led coalition and the Houthi rebels.

On October 13, the US military launched a series of cruise missile strikes on three radar installations in Yemen. The attack became a response to recent threats made on naval vessels in the Red Sea. This was the first time, when the US has taken part in the Yemen conflict directly. Under the circumstances, airpower would be more efficient than cruise missiles launched from surface ships. F-16 jets are perfectly suited for carrying out such missions as knocking out radar sites or other ground based assets in Yemen. Providing air cover for US ships in the region is important, but the fact that tankers are also based in Djibouti, the mission could envisage a scenario with delivering air strikes at much greater distance.

The US plans could include Somalia. On October 16, The New York Times reported that US special operators have been quietly escalating the war on al-Shabab in Somalia carrying out more than a half-dozen raids per month.

The operations are a combination of ground raids and drone strikes. The article states that «the Pentagon has acknowledged only a small fraction of these operations but even the information released publicly shows a marked increase this year».

Somalia's government has recently requested an explanation from the United States for an air raid that it says killed 22 soldiers and civilians in the north of the country on September 28. The Somali army had confirmed that Galmudug forces and civilians were killed in the raid, describing it as a case of «friendly fire».

Whatever the plans are, the United States has significantly beefed up the offensive potential in the region. It could be Yemen or Somalia, or both, as well as some other country. We’ll have to wait and see. After all, Djibouti hosts army-aviation-supported Special Operations Forces (SOF) teams. With F-16s as air cover, they can deliver a powerful blow against a potential enemy in any scenario. There is a great probability that the United States will soon launch a military operation in the region.