As elections approach, the political atmosphere in the Republika Srpska, Russia’s tiny Balkan ally, is heating up. For at least the last ten years, color revolution turbulence has been the normal accompaniment of every electoral cycle there.

It began initially in 2014 as the Serb autonomous entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it was constituted under the Dayton peace agreement in the wake of the 1992 – 1995 civil war, approached its parliamentary and presidential elections. The consensus within the Euro-Atlantic alliance (the coalition of states roughly co-extensive with NATO and the EU) unmistakably was that the assertive local authorities headed by President Dodik and his political party were unacceptable and that a “regime change” operation should be engineered to replace them with a compliant cast of characters.

Local agents quickly set to work to reproduce the satisfactory results previously obtained with relative ease in other “color revolution” episodes. The usual set of grievances was improvised. They were dramatised through a combination of fake “NGOs” and a relentless propaganda barrage conducted through the media, which was partly owned by Western interests and partly susceptible to their emoluments. A major television station in the city of Bijeljina, with country-wide coverage, was suborned to relentlessly spew the color revolution party line, in the confident expectation of a certain electoral triumph.

But there was an unexpected hitch. The Republika Srpska government and ruling coalition supporting it nearly lost their heads when faced with mounting street agitation, but a group of local citizens supported by allies with international experience in these matters marshalled their limited resources to counter the onslaught. In spite of overwhelming odds they succeeded, the Balkan Maidan never materialised, and the coup de grâce planned for Republica Srpska was temporarily delayed.

The next opportunity to fine tune the scenario came just before the 2018 elections in Republika Srpska. The galvanising spark was the mysterious death of a young man by the name of David Dragicevic, the responsibility for which without any firm evidence was attributed to the authorities, or the “regime” in the parlance of the color revolution phalanx. All the usual mechanisms were again activated to generate a cause célèbre designed to discredit the government and dishearten its supporters. The coup almost succeeded. President Dodik squeaked through with barely an 8,000 vote margin, but the ruling coalition failed to win in Parliament a clear majority necessary to form a government. The matter was resolved in the tried and tested Balkan way – a couple of opposition legislators were generously rewarded to switch sides and the status quo ante was successfully restored.

With predictable regularity, the identical pattern is beginning to repeat itself as the country approaches the 2022 electoral season. New factors have emerged to complicate the political and social landscape. One is the Covid crisis, which has hit the Serbian portion of Bosnia relatively hard. The other is the grave constitutional crisis provoked two months ago by the outgoing EU High representative Valentin Incko. He arbitrarily ordered that a “genocide denial law” – clearly targeting all who question the Srebrenica “genocide” narrative, which is by now sacrosanct almost everywhere but in the Republika Srpska – be inserted in the Criminal Code, prescribing harsh punishment for unbelievers of up to five years. Since practically the entire population of Republika Srpska consists of religious sceptics and outright heretics in this regard, the country might as well be encircled with barbed wire and machine-gun turrets for at least the next five years.

While primarily designed to bring external pressure and internal demoralisation, “Incko’s law,” as it is popularly known, also acted as a cohesive factor by temporarily uniting the government and its opposition against it. But the pact which Western-supported elements of the opposition concluded largely for PR reasons is already seriously fraying and the Serbian political scene is returning to its old fragmented “normal.”

Emerging at the heart of the Incko controversy is the issue of whether the High representative, set up by the Dayton agreement to play a balancing role between the former warring parties (his official job is to “interpret” the peace agreement when the local parties fail to arrive at a common understanding of its provisions), has the authority to expand his powers to the point of imposing laws and altering constitutional arrangements. Banja Luka constitutional law professor Milan Blagojevic has argued forcefully and cogently that he does not. In a series of incisive analyses in his newspaper columns and television appearances he has expounded the view that the micro-managing authority claimed by a succession of High representatives is in reality an insolent bluff, unsupported by any of the provision of the peace agreement that established his office. In protest against what he has harshly denounced as “criminal abuse,” Prof. Blagojevic did something utterly unique in that part of the world. He resigned his parallel job as a District Court judge stating that his conscience forbade him to perform judicial duties in the milieu of lawlessness created by the illegal encroachment of the country’s foreign overlord. Hopefully he will impress other public servants by modelling a sacrificial example of professional integrity for their edification, but realistically no one should hold their breath.

Propelled by unanimous public rejection of what is justifiably perceived as the High representative’s tyrannous act, and perhaps also inspired by the upcoming elections, the government has ratcheted up its rhetoric to the point of openly raising a heretofore taboo topic – possible secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Simultaneously, in an evident bow to Prof. Blagojevic’s insistent arguments, it has mentioned the possibility of asking Parliament to annul all previous similarly illicit decrees issued by the High representative, going back at least twenty years. To top off the listed examples of disobedience, former President Dodik, who is now the Serb member of Bosnia’s rotating Presidency, refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the appointment of Incko’s successor, German politician Christian Schmidt, or even meet with him, because he was selected by a committee of NATO governments and not by the UN Security Council, as international legal norms prescribe. In that he has the firm support of the governments of the Russian Federation and China.

So now we come round to the emerging scenario for this season’s color revolution in the Republika Srpska. Clearly, something needs to be done and order must be imposed. The initial plan that was thought up by the Tavistock brain trust is the currently raging oxygen affair. Gene Sharp must be smiling in his grave. Briefly, upon the public spirited complaint filed by Transparency International, a solicitous outfit financed by USAID, alleging that a hospital in the town of Trebinje was using industrial instead of human grade oxygen for the treatment of Covid patients, health inspectors swarmed from Sarajevo (where Republika Srpska can scarcely expect to get any breaks) to determine that indeed there was something fishy about the oxygen formula being used. Gaining traction now are vague and non-evidence based assertions (recall the David Dragicevic affair) that the uncaring “regime” had a corrupt deal with the oxygen provider. The public, who predominantly do not consist of chemists, are being bombarded with highly technical and also politically condimented “information” about grave health risks (on top of the already existing pandemic) posed by the deliberately substituted inferior oxygen. Oddly, no proof of Covid fatalities or testimony of injuries accompanies these accounts of appalling official corruption. Readers with longer memories will remember the staged poisoning affair in Kosovo in 1990, when Albanian school children were instructed to complain of dizziness and stomach cramps provoked by nefarious substances injected in their lunch food by Serb authorities. They all miraculously recovered as soon as foreign correspondents had left. In Trebinje so far no spectacular performances to showcase the government’s public health malfeasance have been organised for the benefit of the international press, but surprises may be in store as the spin continues.

As relations between major geopolitical players steadily deteriorate the Balkans are acquiring increasing importance for NATO powers for exactly the same reasons that they were essential to Nazi Germany in the early forties, to the extent that it was willing to postpone the attack on the Soviet Union and divert its resources in order to first bring the entire area in its orbit. The Serb half of Bosnia is a major piece of the contemporary version of a very similar geopolitical jigsaw puzzle. Russian policy meanderings over the years in that part of the world merit at most a mixed assessment, and that is putting it charitably. Russia cannot afford to further degrade its regional position and security interests by losing Republika Srpska, not to speak of Serbia itself. All the more so because it is not really necessary to be a rocket scientist to figure out how to keep them both firmly and beneficially in its fold.

In response to these unsettling revelations, the Russian Foreign Ministry very decorously announced that it was returning the icon so that Interpol might conduct an investigation into its origin.

The multi-layered scandal has the potential to muddy not just diplomatic relations, but also generate distrust between churches within the Orthodox world and, no less importantly, to undercut relations between the Serbian and Russian nations. A quick cui bono? question yields perfectly obvious answers, and they all point westward. Posing the more fundamental question of who might be the organizers of this unsavoury prank also points in only one direction. Suspiciously synchronized with Gen. Sir Nick Carter’s (Chief of Britain’s Defence Staff) noteworthy statement just days ago that “The way to win is to beat them [the Russians] at their own game, and that means beating them below the threshold of war,” the icon incident has the unmistakable fingerprints of Perfidious Albion. With all due respect for the trans-Atlantic acolytes, it was just too sophisticated for them to pull off.

What happened, essentially, is that as part of his Balkan tour Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina several days ago. His host there was Milorad Dodik, the long-time Premier and President of the Republic of Srpska, the Serbian half of the country, and currently the Serbian member of its three-man rotating Presidency. The circumstances underlying the Russian foreign minister’s visit to Bosnia are serious enough. The entire political and propaganda apparatus of the West, where Bosnia is concerned, is monomaniacally focused on a single issue: the restructuring of the Dayton Agreement by which the war was ended in 1995. The Agreement, at the time acceptable to all three sides and which continues to be acceptable to the Serbs, provides for a loosely confederated country of three constituent peoples and two political entities. While at the time this formula was reached in 1995 it suited the collective West’s momentary purposes as well, it no longer does. The Drang nach Osten, which no one is any longer even bothering to conceal, requires the same strategic preparations that impelled Hitler in 1941 to secure his Balkan rear. That means that Balkan statelets must be brought safely with the aggressor’s camp, or at least be reliably neutralized.

The joint military exercises scheduled to soon take place with the participation of units of Serbian and Bosnian armed forces are a case in point. In the Bosnian Defense Ministry announcement, the exercises are represented as designed to “promote bilateral relations and regional cooperation,” along with a plethora of all the other usual platitudes. But the key point is that their purpose was revealed to be to “implement the concept of ‘Operational Capability Concept Evaluation and Feedback,’“ the phrase in quotation marks being as cited, in English, in the original local language document. And, significantly, we learn that, strangely, these military exercises of two technically neutral and non-NATO countries will be conducted to test their “operational capabilities according to NATO standards.” What for, one may ask.

That is the broader context within which the diplomatic scandal involving the icon (by all appearances of St Nicholas, who is conveniently celebrated according to the Orthodox calendar on December 19, another nice and thoughtful British touch) was ignited.

But the even broader context is the relentless drive for the annulment of the irksome Serb entity Republic of Srpska, whose firm insistence on friendship with Russia and scrupulous observance of the Dayton accords, including the power to veto federal policies it disapproves (such as joining NATO) because they are contrary to its national interest, are an insurmountable roadblock which can only be removed by achieving its destruction.

Granted, President Dodik was not an art major nor is he a known art connoisseur, but perhaps he should have taken a closer look at the gift with which he intended to honor Mr. Lavrov:

Had he done so, perhaps he would have noticed the seal on its back, in the Cyrillic alphabet that he is perfectly capable of reading, suggesting that the gift item may have some links to the Ukraine, and that should have put him on alert. But it is all water under the bridge now.

As in the MH 17 case over the Donbas and the sordid Skripal and Navalny affairs, the pre-packaged spins were activated with lightning speed to speedily impose the perpetrators’ false narrative. The opposition PDP party, a local Bosnian asset of the formidable agency perched at Vauxhall Cross in London, demanded on cue Dodik’s resignation for “shaming” the Republic of Srpska with the negligence he so wantonly displayed. Another bought and paid for asset, the formerly patriotic BN radio and television network which had since switched sides, chimed in with the conspiracy theory that Russia was pushing Dodik under the bus and that it was Russian operatives who suggested this particular item as the most suitable gift for Lavrov precisely to grease the skids for his downfall. One of the more imbecilic conspiracy theories making rounds these days, indeed.

Last but not least, it was hardly conceivable that Ukraine should be involved in this affair without committing a tell-tale gaffe reflecting once more (think back to the initial stages of MH17) the comical professional incompetence of its special services and suggesting a high level of probability of guilty foreknowledge. The Ukrainian Embassy in Sarajevo was too impatient to sleep on it, as we say in America, so it officially demanded from the Bosnian Foreign Ministry the icon’s repatriation the same night that the scandal broke. That was, of course, as we also say in America, jumping the gun before any firm evidence was at hand or any forensic investigations could have been conducted, and at a time when no reasonable conclusions could be drawn.

As if that were insufficient evidence of a set-up, it should also be recalled that Dodik’s colleagues in the Bosnian Presidency, Šefik Džaferović and Željko Komšić refused to abide by their protocolary obligation to co-host minister Lavrov upon his arrival in Sarajevo, citing the most specious of reasons. Assuredly that was because they were part of the plot and their assignment was to make sure that all the blame fell on the Serbian member of the collective body and on the Republic of Srpska that he represents.

The striking implementation of Sir Nick’s “under the threshold” doctrine via the icon affair will not be a mortal blow either to the Republic of Srpska or the political fortunes of Milorad Dodik. But for the moment, at least, it casts a shadow on both as most likely was its entire original purpose, to undermine their capability to resist the ferocious pressure that is being constantly ramped up to replace the Dayton Agreement autonomy with a unitary NATO appendage state.

David was apparently murdered last year as the October 2018 electoral campaign was heating up, and his lifeless body was found lying in a ditch near Republika Srpska’s capital of Banja Luka. The stakes in the murder were considerable, if you were observing the process from the Western point of view. President Milorad Dodik, Putin’s friend and therefore bête noire to Western chancelleries and intelligence services, could not constitutionally run for re-election. But rather than retire, he had the effrontery to declare his candidacy for Serb member of the Presidency of his entity’s umbrella state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. To understand how outrageously that plan must have resonated in Brussels and Washington (not to mention London) it suffices to point out that over the years Dodik has been viciously denounced by those very circles as the gravedigger of the unified Bosnian state. He was charged with the egregious offence of asserting Republika Srpska’s prerogatives under the country’s constitution. Dodik had therefore to be thwarted at any cost. The tragic death of poor David, whether contrived or not, was a literal godsend to the Gene Sharp brigade, which sprang into action forthwith.

Seemingly out of nowhere, a mass protest movement of sorts took shape on the streets of Banja Luka, demanding “Justice for David,” attributing the murder with zero evidence to “regime” skullduggery, and by pure coincidence also becoming increasingly politicized with a raft of other grievances, just as October elections were drawing near. Well, you know the drill, of course. The authorities’ clumsy approach to the murder investigation additionally inflamed the situation. By election time, the damage inflicted on the government’s reputation was considerable. Nevertheless, by the grace of God, or perhaps as a result of Russia’s “malign influence” in the Balkans as the Western atheists would undoubtedly argue, Dodik and his party squeaked through and won the contest. Dodik is now the Serbian member of Bosnia’s Presidency and, to add insult to injury, it happens to be his turn to chair that august body during the current six-month period, making him chief of the state that he is accused of working to destroy. Those whose memory goes back far enough to Congo’s early independence days will recall that Moise Tshombe, initially president of secessionist Katanga, also ultimately worked his way up to become head of the central government which previously he had been accused of undermining.

Anyway, once it was clear that dramatizing David’s dismal fate would be useless to dislodge Dodik and his ruling coalition, someone apparently pushed a button and the noisy public indignation over the youth’s untimely death was over and done with. During several months’ respite that followed, with the admission of Montenegro and Macedonia, the overarching political issue that emerged was Bosnia-Herzegovina’s membership in NATO. Not that anyone there was eager to apply to join, especially not the Serb entity which still had fresh memories of NATO’s terror bombings during the 90s war; rather, it was NATO that made it clear that it was eager to entertain an application from Bosnia’s central government and thus, but for neighboring Serbia, complete the conquest of the Balkan chessboard. However, the additionally emboldened Milorad Dodik – now firmly ensconced in the position of Bosnia’s Tshombe – brashly made it clear that he had no intention of humbly applying to join the club of his people’s tormentors, in which he was fully supported by Republika Srpska’s government. The latter announced that it would veto the NATO accession plan, which would effectively put paid to it.

But someone, somewhere, apparently took great umbrage at this insolence and in late April the brief assassination lull was broken when opposition-linked businessman Slavko Krunić was shot in a professionally executed ambush. Krunić’s main business interest was a security agency with more than 1,000 employees, but he also owned other, unrelated enterprises. Interestingly, for months in 2018 his security firm was providing protection to the “Justice for David” protesters while they were demonstrating in the streets and for a time virtually occupied Banja Luka’s main square. While asserting that he was a Serb, he also billed himself as a “Bosnian patriot” and was a vocal proponent of “Bosnian centralism,” which clearly aligned him with the Western narrative on Bosnia. If WikiLeaks is to be believed, in 2008 he went to see the then US ambassador in Sarajevo to express concerns for his personal safety.

It will soon become manifest whether and to what degree the still unsolved Krunić murder mystery is a replay (or perhaps more precisely, the reincarnation) of the David Dragičević case. “All the usual suspects“ in Republika Srpska’s Western financed opposition are hard at work to whip up a frenzy comparable to last year’s. If in the near future a copy-cat “Justice for Slaviša” movement emerges to again point an accusing finger at the authorities and politically exploit the businessman’s death, that should be a strong hint of who ultimately inspired both ugly events. Paradoxically, a repetition of last year’s scenario will do more than the police have done so far to solve both murders.

Opposition parliamentary deputy Nebojša Vukanović may have inadvertently hit the nail on the head as far as the political background of the Krunić murder is concerned when barely two days after the event on the floor of the National Assembly he asked rhetorically: “How secure am I supposed to feel, or any other citizen, when a man who had a security firm with a 1,000 armed employees was insecure?” As the English bard would say, perhaps “there’s the rub.” Was this, as far as is presently known unmotivated murder committed in the context of the hybrid war against the Republika Srpska, which has been going on for years? Could the objective of causing social instability and generating a widespread sense of insecurity help to explain these strange sequences of events? And given the moral and noble world in which we live, who could possibly be the author of such heinous deeds?

A heavy hint may have been dropped on April 27, just a few days after the murder, by the US internet portal Rich TVX News which strangely eulogized Slaviša Krunić under the attention grabbing heading: „Killing Mr. Bosnia: The Assassination of Slaviša Krunić – One of Country’s Biggest Philanthropists.“ It turns out that with his outstanding human attributes Krunić was being built up as nothing less than the personification of Bosnia as some would like to see it.

Rich TVX News’ unusual interest in this topic is itself quite attention grabbing. Until quite recently, this US internet TV portal was also devoting regular attention to last year’s tragic David Dragičević case, and even more strangely to the political situation in the Republic of Srpska in general under the bombastic heading of „Milorad Dodik’s Streets of Blood – Justice for David. Republika Srpska’s murder rate heads for a new record“. The readily recognizable rhetoric unfailingly points in only one direction.

For a portal which mainly targets a young audience and focuses extensively on their favorite musical groups, the attention devoted to Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country that most Americans, especially youth, would be unable to locate on the map, strikes as particularly bizarre. But then, on a par with the Republic of Srpska the editors also allocate a decent portion of their attention to the other major US geopolitical target – Venezuela. Recently, analysts on this portal speculated quite seriously about the future intentions of the impostor Juan Guaido, nonchalantly presenting him to politically illiterate American readers as the “interim President“ of Venezuela and “the man recognized by dozens of countries” who “returned home to cheering crowds”. Quite obviously, Rich TVX News’ report from Venezuela has about as much to do with reality as the reports about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

But all that is of minor importance. The interesting question is who is behind this odd portal and what other disinformation mechanisms is it synchronized with. There is a widespread impression that this uncommon outfit is financed by none other than Alexander Soros, son of another noted humanist, which suggests answers to at least some of these questions.

At this writing the Slaviša Krunić agitation has not gained excessive traction on the streets, and if the public are sufficiently worn out after last year’s commotion it may not, but it is also possible that the Republic of Srpska may be facing a new wave of organized disorders directed from abroad, perhaps even more intense than in 2018. The goal of dragging Bosnia and Herzegovina into NATO before the impending global conflict is unleashed, if need be kicking and screaming, will be pursued by all available destabilizing instruments and at any price. Among those instruments are undoubtedly the provocation which resulted in the murder of Slaviša Krunić and the pressures on the Republic of Srpska that will be set in motion by that staged event.

The mysterious demise of 21-year-old David Dragičević, a student with no apparent political links, which has been clumsily mishandled by investigative authorities, has been used for months as a convenient rallying cry by anti-government activists. As for the under-the-table financial and logistical support extended to opponents of Russia-friendly President Milorad Dodik, these are not just casual political claims disseminated for campaign purposes.

USAID and other outfits tied to the US and British governments make no secret of the fact that they are injecting funds into the Republic of Srpska, particularly the media and political groups friendly to their agenda, in order to tip the balance in their favor and detach the Republic of Srpska from “malign Russian influence.” Rules of electoral non-interference boldly asserted for the benefit of hegemonic countries apparently do not apply to the behavior of the hegemons. As a result, the Republic of Srpska is in the throes of the second round of the color revolution which was originally attempted and failed four years ago at the time of the previous general elections in 2014.

The threat is acute, not just to Dodik’s leadership but more importantly to the existence of the Republic of Srpska. Western minions are being funded and covertly supported because they have agreed to revise the 1995 Dayton agreement and to accept the concept of a unitary Bosnian state that would eliminate or eviscerate the Republic of Srpska. They have also agreed to drop Srpska’s veto to NATO membership for Bosnia.

But while Dodik’s position on these key issues is sound, his rule has been undermined significantly by the corruption and incompetence of his government. These shortcomings have given the pro-NATO and anti-Russian opposition legitimate issues on which to focus and draw votes that they would otherwise not get based on the flawed fundamental policies that they are hired to advocate. Unfortunately, as has happened so many times in the past, the Serbian people do not have a real choice between good and bad options, but mostly between different shades of bad. New and dynamic political forces, such as the “Successful Srpska” movement, for instance, which consists of young, patriotic professionals untainted by corruption or scandal, are short on resources and media coverage. It is not a level playing field. Fresh, honest faces are at a disadvantage compared to the corrupt political dinosaurs from the past who have nothing to offer but empty rhetoric and, in some cases, also extremely bad policies.

Bosnia is a failed state. It was set up as an international protectorate on permanent artificial respiration and that is what it has been ever since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, ending the civil war. President Dodik has hinted at organizing an independence referendum or joining Serbia if Kosovo’s illegal secession from Serbia receives international recognition. But the real question is what all three constituent communities in Bosnia, not just the Serbs, would do after Bosnia’s inevitable demise.

There is scant evidence that Dodik ever actually gave serious thought to secession. Rather, he has been using that card for political and electoral leverage, and with considerable effect on the domestic level. With regard to greater autonomy for the Republic of Srpska, to be precise, what he has urged was going back to the confederal arrangement set up in Dayton, which provides for an extremely limited central government and broad and virtually unfettered self-government for the Republic of Srpska as well as the other entity. It is not a question of pleading for a devolution of powers but of reinstituting the original system where most powers were vested in the constituent units, or entities as they are called, to begin with. It mirrored the status of the states in relation to the Federal Government under the original US Constitution, but that system was continuously diluted over the years by imperious decisions of dubious legality issued by EU’s viceroy in Bosnia, known as the High Representative. The single-minded thrust of those imposed decisions was to derogate the self-governing powers of the Republic of Srpska and centralize decision-making in the capital of Sarajevo.

While there is no enthusiasm among Serbs for remaining part of the Bosnian state on any terms, for the moment the restoration of the loose confederal arrangement originally envisaged and agreed upon in Dayton would be regarded by them as satisfactory. Such a system would leave them with an ample degree of self-government in their own virtually independent state. They could largely ignore the unpalatable government in Sarajevo, and that government would have little effective control over them. Until the geopolitical balance of forces in the world changes sufficiently to allow more fundamental restructuring, such a system would be just fine with the Serbs.

But, of course, it is a concept that clashes with the designs of NATO, EU, and the major players in the Western alliance. That is why they will have none of it and are staging another color revolution to install in the Republic of Srpska their own bought and paid for set of collaborators, committed to do their bidding.

That’s quite a mouthful for the «offense» of standing up for Bosnian Serbs’ choice, via public referendum, of a day to mark their national and spiritual identity. Despicably, Valentin Inzko, the unelected «High Representative» of Nobody in Particular, compared RS’s Day of the Republic to the founding of the World War II-era Ustaša-ruled «Independent State of Croatia» (NDH), infamous for its genocidal slaughters of Serbs, Jews, and Roma.

The Dodik sanctions episode is noteworthy for what it tells us about three related factors: the future of BiH as a state (or something pretending to be a state); the desperate effort by the late, unlamented Obama administration and their Republican and European collaborators to perpetuate their failed policies of the past quarter century; and the hope for (but not certainty of) a more enlightened U.S. policy in the Balkans, in Europe, and globally, particularly to the need to combat Islamic radicalism, not support it.

First, regarding the future of BiH, it’s not looking good. Dodik called BiH «a project with no future», saying the only viable path is a «peaceful divorce along entity lines». In response, American and EU diplomats called for more «reforms», which in practice means pushing for greater centralization of power in the hands of the Muslims at the expense of Serbs and Croats. In response to Inzko’s tirade, the RS has cut contacts with his office and endorsed a call by war veterans «to apologize to the Serb people for the insults he uttered».

Thus, this latest episode can be taken as another turn in BiH’s spiral into dysfunction. In principle, it might still be possible for the Muslims to enter into genuine negotiations with Serbs and Croats for a authentic federation that respects the rights, security needs, and identities of all three communities – the only way BiH has a chance of staying together. But that’s unlikely with the Muslims’ conviction that outside powers, notably the U.S., will maintain a thumb on the scale to assure their dominance.

Second, the Dodik sanctions need to be seen in context with other efforts of the Obama administration to «poison the well» for the Trump team as the transfer of power approached. This mostly concerned Russia: expulsion of diplomats, military deployments on Russia’s borders, and contrived hysteria over «Russian hacking» of the U.S. election. Put in its simplest form, the two interlocking defining principles of the bipartisan U.S. foreign policy establishment (or the Deep State) since the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact has been continued determination to maintain Russia as the vassal state it was under Boris Yeltsin (and failing that, to break it up, for example according to the three-way partition floated by Zbigniew Brzezinski); and, as a tool in achieving the subjugation of Russia (as well as appeasing our «friends» like Saudi Arabia), championing Islamic causes, particularly against Orthodox Christian opponents. This means support for jihadist elements that began in Afghanistan in the 1980s (which gave birth to al-Qaeda) and then in Bosnia (the Iranian arms «green light» and covert U.S. air delivery of weapons and, reportedly, jihad fighters), in Kosovo (Fatos Klosi, the former head of that Albanian secret police, said he had twice seen Osama bin Laden in Tirana consulting with «prime minister» and Kosovo mafia leader Hashim Thaci planning their terrorist campaign against Serbia), and then in Libya and Syria.

In a Balkan context, the fact is that U.S. support was given to Bosnian Muslims as Muslims for the specific purpose of currying favor with the Islamic world. For example, the late Rep. Tom Lantos (Democrat, California) – then-Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee — said the following at a Congressional hearing on Kosovo in 2007 in the lead-up to the 2008 illegal declaration of independence:

«Just a reminder to the predominantly Muslim-led government[s] in this world that here is yet another example [i.e., «another» example after BiH] that the United States leads the way for the creation of a predominantly Muslim country in the very heart of Europe. This should be noted by both responsible leaders of Islamic governments, such as Indonesia, and also for jihadists of all color and hue. The United States' principles are universal, and in this instance, the United States stands foursquare for the creation of an overwhelmingly Muslim country in the very heart of Europe».

Not to be outdone, Mr. Lantos’ Senate counterpart at the time, recently departed Vice President Joseph Biden, expressed similar views (Financial Times, January 3, 2007):

«…[A]droit diplomacy to secure Kosovo’s independence could yield a victory for Muslim democracy. . . a much-needed example of a successful US-Muslim partnership…»

In other words, American support for Islamic communities in the Balkans is not primarily driven by Balkan realities. Rather, it is guided by a larger, global concept regarding how the United States wants to be perceived in the Islamic world. It is of course a concept that has yielded only disaster. The biggest European recruiting grounds for ISIS and hotbed for its activities are in America’s «Muslim democratic» pets Kosovo and Bosnia (the Federation of BiH of course, not RS).

Third and finally, there is a chance this could change because of a transfer of power at the source of the problem: in Washington. President Donald Trump boldly declares his desire to improve ties with Russia and join with Moscow to combat radical Islamic terrorism, starting in Syria. This would be a direct repudiation of the policies of Obama, George W. Bush, and the pathological Bill Clinton. He has indicated a willingness to work with forces all over the world that will join with us in that perspective. Seen through such a lens Milorad Dodik is a natural ally, as is Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

This brings us back to why the specific last-minute decision to slap sanctions on Dodik. As he observed:

«These are not sanctions of the United States, these are sanctions of those who were defeated in elections in the U.S. and I'm not surprised by this move, because I have heard so many threats from this outgoing administration over the last ten years… The reprisal followed, but it probably wouldn't have happened had I not been invited to the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. They could not bear to see me. The sanctions are a personal move of those who understand politics as a policy of force… The decision was announced by an administration that will two days from now go into political history, and it yet remains to be seen whether they had any suggestions from here for such a decision». 

Put another way, Obama’s and Hillary’s rear guard – who unfortunately have many supporters in the neoconservative wing of the Republican Party – lashed out any way they could. As a principled and strong (one might say, «Trumpesque») figure Dodik was a tempting target.

The Trump administration is still very much in formation, and one assumes that there’s no possible way it could be worse than its predecessors. But caution is in order. When Bush was elected in 2000, and even more after the al-Qaeda attacks of 2001, there were those who flatly predicted that the U.S. would rapidly switch sides in the Balkans to confront the jihad threat. Instead, the clueless Bush, guided by neoconservatives who had supported the Clinton aggression, intensified their pro-Islamic bias across the globe, and the Balkans most all. Convinced that «moderate» Islam was the only antidote to «radical» Islam, they wanted to prove all the more desperately how much they favored Muslim causes in the Balkans and any terrorists opposed to Russia or friends of Russia.

It’s clear where Trump wants to go. The problem is, he needs to populate his administration with credentialed professionals. These will mainly be veterans of the administration of Bush the Younger, whose tendency will be to try to drag Trump back to the failures of that era. Whether they will succeed or whether Trump can break them to his will is not yet known.

These are elements of a much more complicated problem – the multifaceted process of political reshaping to encompass the Balkans, as well as the whole Eurasia. Prepared by the Western power centers, the scenario envisions no place for political entities, parties and individuals whose activities do not dovetail with the plans of Washington or Brussels. The Dayton Agreement laid down the basis for the republic’s international recognition (the Dayton Accords is the peace agreement reached at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio, United States in November 1995, and formally signed in Paris on 14 December 1995. These accords put an end to the Bosnian War). 

The United States and late Richard Holbrooke, a well-known US diplomat, did a lot to reach the agreement, but even then it was clear that the Bosnian Serbs’ statehood was a fact the West was reluctant to put up with. The only thing standing in the way of the plans to speed up the process of undermining this state was the need to tackle other problems. A rear had to be secured so that the West could concentrate on such issues as the independence of Kosovo, reshaping the Greater Middle East and meddling into the affairs of the states that belonged to post-Soviet space. 

Bosnian Serbs gave up their plan to hold a referendum on the work of the Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) Court and Prosecutor's Office after the effective intervention of the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton who arrived unexpectedly in Banja Luka to discuss the situation with local leaders. Ultimately Republika Srpska and the European Union had to make mutual concessions.

Today the situation has gone through fundamental changes. Washington and Brussels view all countries and politicians through the prism of attitude towards Russia, especially regarding the energy and integration projects. Milorad Dodik, an independent politician able to block foreign policy decisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is viewed as almost the main challenge to the plans of European Atlantists (excluding Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and like-minded people in the countries of Mediterranean Basin).

A multi-pass and complicated geopolitical game is taking place in the Middle East. The situation has greatly aggravated there after the US intervention into Afghanistan and Iraq. Under the circumstances the support rendered to the Muslim authorities in Sarajevo in their confrontation with Bosnian Serbs has become an important element of US policy towards the Islamic State, Turkey and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf led by Saudi Arabia.

The United Nations Security Council’s resolution to mark the 20th anniversary of the Srebrennitsa massacre was to serve as a legal basis and propaganda instrument to do away with the Serbs statehood. That is exactly why it has been prepared now, not five or ten years ago. The adoption of the resolution would set a precedent – a state entity established in accordance with the decision taken by great powers would be declared a «product» of «ethnic cleansing» to be made disappear with multi-billion reparations paid.

In 2008 Stipe Miocic, former President of Croatia, said he was surprised that the Republika Srpska, created as a result of ethnic cleaning and genocide, still existed. In 2009 the US House of Representatives controlled by Democrats recognized the Dayton Agreement as a document reached as a result of many compromises made. The House stated that the compromises hindered the progress to be reached by political structures of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Russia was adamant sticking to its principles. It blocked the endorsement of the draft resolution – a document of unparalleled cynicism. Now the West is expected to take new steps aimed at undermining the Bosnian Republika Srpska and toppling its leaders. That’s why the discussions have become focused on the referendum to be held by Bosnian Serbs. The West is not bothered by a verdict to be handed down in regard to the court or prosecutor’s office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it is upset by the very intent of Milorad Dodik to go straight to people for support. The same way the European Union was shocked by the decision of Greek government to hold a referendum and, what’s even more important, the wide support expressed for the policy implemented by Prime Minister Tsipras.

Serbia is in a difficult situation. Or to be precise – the situation Serbia created itself. It faces a plethora of issues to address, including Kosovo, the European Union and socio-economic problems, but instead of planning its own referendum to ask the opinion of people, Serbian Prime Minister Alexander Vucic tried to persuade Dodik to abandon the idea of plebiscite. The reasons he adduced are very illustrative. According to him, he agrees with the arguments put forward by the President of Republika Srpska but «the price is too high». How come the price could be excessive in case of such a democratic procedure as holding a referendum? The Serbian Premier never explained.

Le Monde has emphasized recently that «The Serbia’s government has taken a surprisingly steep turn towards Europe. Despite the fact that Belgrade has always had close relations with Moscow, Prime Minister Alexander Vucic is evidently leaning towards the West. No matter if he is motivated by convictions or opportunism, this policy may put into doubt the sacred principle of Serbia’s military neutrality».

Wish Serbia would lend an ear to other actors on international scene besides Washington and Brussels. Today the situation in Europe and the world is too complicated to be seen exclusively through the eyes of US government or congressmen.