The battle lines for the future of humanity were made explicitly clear during this week’s Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok under the theme of “Opportunities for the Far East in a World Under Transformation”.

President Putin set the tone of the event by noting:

“The strategic vector for the development of the Far East is towards a new economy, those areas for economic, scientific and technological development that shape the future, set long-term trends in entire industries, countries, and regions of the world. Here a broad range of opportunities for international cooperation opens up as well as the chance to really look at the development of the traditional sectors and branches of the economy.

Over the course of the three day event, 380 agreements totalling 3.5 trillion rubles were signed vectored around a long term growth strategy for Russia’s underdeveloped North East which. These agreements bring together dozens of nations and private interests into a new long term strategic framework that is not only opening up one of the last undeveloped frontiers on Earth, but which also ties Moscow’s destiny ever more firmly into the Asian Pacific. This is no surprise since China’s growth model has set the tone for an alternative political-economic order and Russia’s relationship with that new order is among the highest priorities for anyone in Russia committed to survival.

Unlike those western states locked within a unipolar sinking ship who have forgotten how to think long term, or even conduct business from an honest win-win cooperative outlook, Russia announced the accelerated creation of five modern Arctic cities that will house 300 thousand to 1.5 million citizens over the coming years. Additionally, a decree was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin for 10 year financing agreements amounting to 500 billion rubles “to build new highways, communal infrastructure, energy and industrial facilities”.

Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035 (first unveiled in 2015) was advanced in leaps and bounds with agreements to increase the gas distribution system from 68.6% to 82.9% in 14 years, and to vastly expand hydrogen energy development to 200,000 tons by 2024 before rising to 2,000,000 tons by 2035. During the summit, a plan was laid out for three hydrogen production clusters to be created with 1) a northwest set of clusters to service Europe’s growing needs, 2) a set of eastern clusters to export hydrogen to Asia and finally 3) a set of Arctic clusters which will be a key driver in opening up and modernizing Russia’s north.

While there are several pathways to create hydrogen fuel, the most effect option which Russia has selected in its current model uses electrolysis carbon capture technology from natural gas. However, Rosatom has announced an even more robust approach to hydrogen development in the form of nuclear reactors that not only provide reliable, high quality energy to power the industrial and residential needs of a nation but also generate massive quantities of hydrogen as a carbon-free by-product.

At a June 2020 initiation of a prototype reactor designed to produce hydrogen at the Kola Nuclear plant, a representative of Rosatom said:

“The purpose of the Competence Center will be validation of technology for the production, storage and transportation of electrolytic hydrogen. We are now at the very beginning of a long journey.”

The strategic necessity for hydrogen and also nuclear power has finally struck many nations who have woken up to the reality that the windmill/solar panel boondoggles that technocrats managing a Global Green New Deal have been pushing might look nice in computer models, but are completely dysfunctional when measured against the actual productive needs of humanity.

Keynoting the summit, President Putin made the point that the Arctic hosts an array of mineral and energy resources that will not only service the coming decades but coming centuries with Arctic offshore deposits of oil amounting to 15 billion tons and 100 trillion cubic meters of gas. New ports will continue to be built and upgraded while Russia’s Trans Siberian rail line (and associated 4300 km Baikal-Amur Mainland railway) will feature vast upgrades to accommodate a rise of traffic from the current 120 million tons/year to 180 million tons by 2024.

Describing the Northern Sea Route which will cut over 10 days as ships move goods between China and Europe (while decongesting the Straits of Malacca and Suez Canal), Putin stated:

“I would like to note that over the past 10 years, the volume of cargo transport along this route has increased by an order of magnitude. I think I have my numbers right; sometime in 1986 a little over 7 million tonnes were shipped, last year it was 33 million tonnes, and by 2024, this figure should be 80 million tonnes. I am positive that these are not the final figures.”

In order to encourage long term investment and civilization building (rather than the resource stripping practices dominant under Globalization), Putin announced a vast array of tax incentives and reduced insurance premiums for companies willing to build vital infrastructure and industrial hubs for automotive, agriculture and mining programs in the Arctic zones. Predicting any shifty financiers licking their lips at new opportunities for tax havens, the Russian leader also emphasized that only companies engaged in directly productive work would reap these benefits.

Intent on reversing the devastating trends of negative population growth that Russia suffered during the dark years of Perestroika and which have never properly recovered, Russia has unveiled a modern form of homestead program offering lands, easy loans and other financial incentives for families who wish to migrate into these high priority regions. Included in this program are ample opportunities for trade schools with good paying jobs for young people and migrants as well.

Providing a brilliant strategic remedy to the build-up of full spectrum dominance military encirclements in the Pacific, Russia has placed a large emphasis on the economic development of the Kuril Islands as a primary focus for the Eastern growth agenda. In his speech, Putin made sure to emphasize the benefits Japan would incur by partnering on these initiatives which fall far outside of the Asian Quad security doctrine which certain Strangelove-esque characters would much prefer define Asian military planning.

In both rail upgrades, new energy corridors, migration flows, new cities and arctic shipping, Russia’s relationship with China’s Belt and Road Initiative is huge.

Without this relationship having reached a mature level of harmonization as a powerful inter-civilizational partnership, it is difficult to imagine what a hopeless disaster zone much of the Central European, Asian and Middle Eastern economies would be at this moment.

With the International Northern-South Transportation Corridor begun in 2002 stretching from Russia to India with maritime and land routes touching dozens of countries now taking on new life as a win-win design in total synergy with the east-west New Silk Road corridor, the importance of the integration of the Eurasian Economic Union with the BRI Framework can not be overstated.

For example, Not only did China’s recent $400 billion deal with Iran transform the Greater Eurasian Partnership around a new chemistry of energy, transport and security agreements, but Russia and Iran have together advanced a harmonization of their power grids around two routes: 1) via Azerbaijan and 2) via Armenia and Georgia. Additionally, this summer, Russia and Iran signed off on 20 year agreement covering political, economic, security, military and defense cooperation.

With these new pro-development programs in place, a new environment is quickly being shaped outside of the increasingly defunct “rules based order”. This alternative system is bringing hope to Afghanistan, Syria, and every other nation caught in the fires of empire. Reflective of this new hope, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid has stated:

“Chinese assistance will form the foundation of Afghan development. One Belt, one Road will revive the ancient Silk Road. China will be our gateway to international markets”.

With the BRICS Summit just around the corner and the BRICS Development Bank poised to hopefully take on new life as a driving force of long term development alongside the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, one can only hope that wiser forces among the nations of the west (and those among the global south trying to foolishly operate within two opposing worlds) will recognize which future is worth living in.

The author can be reached at matt.ehret@tutamail.com

(Click on the image to enlarge)

When it became evident that the regime change wars that grew out of 9/11 were not merely driven by oil profits- but were rather designed to prevent the possible formation of an alliance of Eurasian nations, a counter-offensive was adopted by those targeted Eurasian powers to ensure their survival and international stability. This counter-offensive was driven by the incredible alliance of Russia and China who together had the combined talents of Russia’s extraordinary military/intelligence capabilities and China’s powerful infrastructure building capabilities.

While certain Asian nations had been positioned by western geopoliticians to be anti-China, other nations under the NATO cage were forced to be anti-Russia. With the surprise Russia-China partnership, moves to unwind impossible knots of conflict threatening WWIII have begun to come unwound. Xi’s current visit to India is just one of many examples made possible by the flanking maneuvers created by the great alliance.

India Joins the Polar Silk Road

The importance of India and Japan’s participation in the 5^th Eastern Economic Forum from September 4-6 in Vladivostok Russia can only be appreciated by recognizing this cooperative strategy between Russia and China. Both nations have recently transformed the ambitious development plans of Russia’s Far East and Arctic region into a Polar Silk Road – bringing the BRI into Russia’s Arctic.

The fact that India was able to integrate its destiny into this emerging Polar Silk Road is vitally important for the future of international affairs, as President Modi was welcomed as Russia’s guest of honor. This visit ended with a historic 81 point joint statement with President Putin, solidifying cooperation in nuclear development, space technology, telecommunications, AI, nanotechnology, as well as Russia’s participation in major Indian infrastructure and India’s investment into Russia’s Far East and Arctic infrastructure. The International North-South Transport Corridor was high on the agenda as was an increased building up of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as “an equal and indivisible security architecture in Asia and the Pacific region”. Putin beautifully stated that both nations have “similar civilizational values” and similar approaches to the “fundamental issues of development and economic progress”.

Echoing Putin’s message of multipolar cooperation, Modi said “by declaring the development of the Russian Far East a ‘national priority for the 21^st century’, President Putin has taken a holistic approach towards improving everything ranging from economy, education, health to sports, culture and communication”.

As the Indian president spoke these words, a $1 billion USD line of credit was offered by India for Russia’s Far East development, adding to the $7 billion USD currently invested by Indian firms in Russian oil and gas.

This incredible unification of interests between Russia and India on the Polar Silk Road have flanked the fanatics within Modi’s own government who are ideologically committed to an enemy relationship with China due to the latter’s partnership with Pakistan on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

While not as dramatic in effect, the Vladivostok meeting was also highlighted by participation by the leaders of Malaysia, Mongolia, and Japan- all of which have increased their commitments in the Polar Silk Road program and have in the same measure begun to liberate themselves from western manipulation.

Putin’s Far East Vision Diffuses Japan-Chinese Tension

For years, Japan has been a problem case in the Asia Pacific due in large measure to a decades-old military treaty with the USA resulting in 50 000 US military personnel, dozens of bases and an anti-China/Russia missile shield hosted in Japan. Fuel has been poured on the flames of conflict with China over the disputed East China Sea (known in Japan as the Senkakus and Diaoyus). Similarly, a Japan-Russian conflict has been kept hot over decades due to Japan’s claims over ownership of its “Northern Territories” which in Russia are dubbed the “Kuril Islands”. Of course Russia has made clear that it is willing to give those territories to Japan in accord with a 1956 Joint Declaration, but due to Japan’s status as colony of a US military seeking unipolar hegemony around “Full Spectrum Dominance”, it cannot do so, nor can it accept Japan’s calls to formerly end WWII with Russia. These obstacles aside, progress has been made.

While Japan did not make the dramatic commitments into Russia’s Far East as India did, PM Shinzo Abe did make headlines when he stated Russia should be re-introduced in the G8, joining in similar statements recently made by both Emmanuel Macron and President Trump on August 21 in France. President Putin took the opportunity to advance on the theme by saying that not only would Russia accept being re-introduced into the group, but that China, India and Turkey must also become members!

Just two months earlier, Abe applauded the signing of a deal “that facilitates Russia’s efforts to develop the Arctic and ensures stable energy supply to our country”– referring to the Mitsui and JOGMEC oil giant’s participation in the 2^nd LNG project in Novatek. Commenting on the LNG-2 deal, Energy Security expert Professor Francesco Sassi of Pisa University recently said that the project “will see an unprecedented level of cooperation between Japanese and Chinese energy companies in one of the most important Russian energy projects of the next decade”.

Lastly, the 9300 km Trans-Siberian Railroad has increasingly become a part of the BRI carrying goods between the East and West. On July 3^rd Russian Railways announced a 100-fold increase in Cargo volume from 3000 twenty ft units to 300 000 by upgrading and doubling the rail, making this the “main artery for Europe-Japan trade”.

Malaysia Solidifies its Relations with Russia and China

While Malaysia has been pushed by the US Military Industrial Complex to participate in war games while confronting China over disputed territory in the South China Sea, the current President Mahathir Mohammed has resisted this anti-China stance by calling for increased cooperation on China’s BRI. President Mahathir’s visit to Vladivostok resulted in the creation of a Russian-sponsored Aerospace University in Malaysia and Mahathir’s happy announcement that the Russian Far East will open up new markets for his nation.

On the Aerospace University, Dr. Mahatir stated: “we are very interested in aerospace and engineering. I am confident that the proposal by Russia to set up an aerospace university would not only boost investment but also promote transfer of technology in the sector.”

Mongolia and the New Silk Road

Up until just a few years ago, Mongolia was seriously being courted to join NATO. Canada’s Governor General David Johnson did the most to seduce Mongolia’s leadership going so far as to praise Genghis Khan as the great civilization builder and true soul of Mongolia that needed to become hegemonic in the Mongolian psyche as the nation joined North Atlantic Alliance.

Luckily, the nation’s leaders recognized the sea change and made the decision to drop the offer (though still hasn’t managed to join the SCO beyond its current Observer Status). The creation of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor in 2016 was a watershed moment which expands heavily upon the Trans-Mongolian Railway and AH-3 Highway Route creating vital links between Russia and China. These projects play heavily into China’s BRI.

The days before the Vladivostok summit, Putin visited Mongolia where the two nations signed a “Treaty of Friendly Relations and Comprehensive Partnership” to bring “strategic partnership to a whole new level.” Putin announced a joint investment fund and $1.5 billion USD loan which President Battulga announced would be used to build more rail to the Chinese border for coal and mineral exports and the upgrade of the Ulan Bator Railway which Putin stated “is an important transportation artery for Mongolia”. Since 2017, Russian-Mongolian trade grew by 22%.

In spite of all of this incredible development, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper demonstrated the superhuman disconnection from reality shared among all technocrats and neocons of the west during his August visit to Mongolia where he tried in vain to win the nation over to his imagined anti-Chinese alliance.

The Welfare of Humanity is at the Heart of Everything

Re-stating his concept of the global importance of the new paradigm emerging in Russia’s Far East and its connection with the broader BRI as an international affair for all mankind, President Putin stated “I believe that our brainstorming today at this forum will not only strengthen the efforts of human welfare in the Far East, but also the entire mankind.”

This parting thought represents one of the most powerful concepts and sources of creative energy which both fuels the growth of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Polar Silk Road. It is also the core reason why western game theory logicians cannot understand how to beat it (except using the temper tantrum strategy of a toddler wielding nuclear weapons). It is creative and premised on a care for all mankind, whereas technocrats and game theorists operate on the narrow principle of selfishness which cannot generate anything truly creative.

“Our planet is so small that we must live in peace” said the head of the organization for mothers of military veterans in Yakutsk, Siberia, Far East Russia and called for “mothers to unite against war,” a sentiment that, despite the actions of our politicians and government leaders, is one of the many common threads that ordinary Russians and ordinary Americans share.

Heading to Far East Russia

I was in the Russian Far East, in the city of Yakutsk as a part of the Center for Citizens Initiatives citizen to citizen diplomacy program. The 45-person delegation from the United States had completed five days of dialogue in Moscow with Russian economic, political and security specialists about their analyses of today’s Russia, formed into small teams and had disbursed to 20 cities all over Russia to meet people and learn about their lives, their hopes and their dreams.

When I got on the S7 airliner departing Moscow, I thought I must have gotten on the wrong plane. It seemed like I was headed for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan instead of Yakutsk, Sakha, Siberia! Since I was going to Far East Russia, I had expected that the majority of passengers would be ethnic Asians of some type, not European Russians, but I didn’t expect that they would look so much like ethnic Kyrgyz from in the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan.

And when I stepped off the plane in Yakutsk, six hours and six-time zones later, I was definitely in a time warp back twenty-five years to 1994 when I arrived in Kyrgyzstan for a two-year U.S. diplomatic tour.

The city of Yakutsk looked much like the city of Bishkek with the same types of Soviet-style apartment buildings, with the same above-ground pipes for heating all the buildings. And as I saw during the three days meeting people in their homes, some of the old-style Soviet-era apartment buildings have the same dimly lighted, poorly maintained stairways, but once inside apartments, the warmth and charm of the occupants would shine.

But as in all parts of Russia, the economic changes of the past twenty-five years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union has transformed much of the daily life of Russians. The move in the early 1990s toward capitalism with the privatization of the massive Soviet government industrial base and the opening of private small and medium-sized enterprises brought new construction in the business community as well in housing for the new middle class changing the look of cities in Russia. The import of goods, materials and food from Western Europe opened up the economy for many. However, pensioners and those in rural areas with limited income have found their lives more difficult and many wish for the days of the Soviet Union where they feel they were more secure economically with state assistance.

World War II Remembered Vividly—Over 26 million died

The effects of World War II are still felt on Russians all over the country including the distant Russian Far East. Over 26 million citizens of the Soviet Union were killed as the German Nazis invaded. In contrast, 400,000 Americans were killed in the European and Pacific theaters of World War II. Every Soviet family was affected with family members killed and families all over the Soviet Union suffering from lack of food. Much of the patriotism in Russia today centers on remembering the huge sacrifice 75 years ago to repel the Nazi invasion and sieges and a commitment to never let another country put Russia into such a situation again.

Even though Yakutsk was six times zones and 3,000 air miles or 5400 driving miles from the western front near St. Petersburg and the eastern European countries that were under siege, the population of the Soviet Far East were mobilized to help defend the country.  In the summer of the early 1940s, young men were put on boats on rivers that flowed north to the Arctic and shipped around to the front.

Meeting Veterans in Russia

Since I am a veteran of the U.S. military, my hosts arranged for me to meet with two military-related groups in Yakutsk.

Photo by Ann Wright

Maria Emelyanova is the head in Yakutsk of the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia, an organization that was created in 1991 after the return of Soviet soldiers from Afghanistan in 1989 and was very active during the First Chechen War (1994-96) when an estimated 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed and between 30,000-100,000 Chechen civilians died in the conflict.

Maria said that the brutality of the Chechen war as seen on Russian TV caused two women in Yakutsk to die of heart attacks. 40 young men from the Yakutia region were killed in Chechnya.

I asked about Russian involvement in Syria and she responded that to her knowledge no Russian ground forces are in Syria but the Air Force is there and several Russian airmen have been killed when the US sent a missile into an Air Force base in Syria. She said the death and destruction for Syria is terrible. Maria added, “Our planet is so small that we must live in peace” and called for “mothers to unite against war,” which is echoed by many American groups, including Veterans for Peace and Military Families Speak Out.

Obligatory military service in Russia is one year and according to Maria, families are not against young men getting military training as it gives them discipline and better opportunities for a job after the one year of service–similar to the rationale given by many U.S. families–and the veterans preference given for jobs in the US.

Photo by Ann Wright

I was honored to meet Raisa Fedorova, a 95-year-old woman veteran of the Soviet army in World War II. Raisa served 3 years in an air defense unit that protected the oil pipelines around Baku, Azerbaijan. She married a man from Yakutsk and moved to Siberia where they raised their children. She is a leader of an organization for World War II veterans called the Katusha (name of a rocket) club and speaks frequently to school kids about the horrors and devastation of World War II on Russia and the Russian people. She and other veterans are revered in their communities for the huge obstacles faced by their generation in defeating the Nazis.

U.S. Airplanes Flew from Alaska to Russia by Soviet Pilots

Photo by Ann Wright

In these days of tensions between Russia and the United States, many forget that during World War II, under the Lend Lease program, the United States enormously increased its industrial production to provide aircraft and vehicles to the Soviet military to defeat the Nazis.  Yakutsk played an important role in this program as it became one of the stopover points for the 800 aircraft that were manufactured in the United States and flown to Fairbanks, Alaska by American pilots where Soviet pilots meet them and would then fly the aircraft 9700 kilometers over isolated Siberia to the bases in Central Russia.

Monument in Fairbanks, Alaska to American and Russian pilots

Fairbanks and Yakutsk became sister cities through this connection and each has a monument to the pilots from both the U.S. and Russia who flew the planes.

The logistics of creating airports in 9 locations in Siberia with fuel and maintenance facilities to support the aircraft was remarkable.

Photo by Ann Wright. Author in center, Ivan Efimovich Negenblys; Left to right- Rotarian and host Pete Clark, researcher and Ivan’s wife Galina; host and Rotarian Katya Allekseeva; Ann Wright

Historian and author Ivan Efimovich Negenblya of Yakutsk is a recognized, worldwide authority on this program and has written 8 books about the remarkable cooperation seventy-five years ago between the U.S. and Soviet systems against a common enemy.

Ethnic groups and land

Photo by Ann Wright

The people who inhabit the area of Yakutsk are as remarkable as the unique land in which they live.  They come from many indigenous ethnic groups brought together under the Soviet system through education in the Russian language.  Cultural events keep ethnic heritages alive.  Singing, music, crafts and clothing of each ethnicity are valued greatly in the Yakutsk area.

Unlike in other parts of Russia where young people are moving from the villages into the cities, the population of Yakutsk is remaining a steady 300,000.  The federal government of Russia is offering each person in Russia one hectare of federally owned land in unpopulated Siberia to populate the area and take the strain off the cities.  Families can combine their hectares into a viable amount of land for agriculture or other enterprises.  One villager said his son and his family have gotten new land on which they will raise horses as horse meat is eaten more commonly than beef. The land must show some level of occupancy and production within five years or it is returned to the land pool.

Photo by Ann Wright at the People’s Party for Women Of Russia.

The People’s Party for Women Of Russia headquartered in Yakutsk assists women and families in Yakutsk as well as the arctic north with programs on childcare, alcoholism, domestic violence. Angelina told proudly of expeditions of women heading north into remote villages to hold “master classes” in a variety of topics. The group is working internationally with presentations at conferences in Mongolia and would like to expand its contacts in the United States.

Young Russians Concerned About the Economy

In discussions with several young adults, all of whom were busy on their mobile phones, just as the youth in the United States, their economic future was of greatest concern. The political environment was of interest, but mostly focused on how the politicians were going to improve the stagnant economy. In a relatively new occurrence, Russian individuals and families are going into debt in order to meet monthly expenses. The availability of merchandise and buying on credit, so common in the U.S. where households are carrying 50% debt, is a new aspect of life in the 25-year old capitalist society. Interest on loans is about 20% so once in debt without an increase in one’s economic situation, the debt continues to compound leaving young families with a difficult way out unless the economy picks up. In discussing the National Plan in which $400 billion will be spent on infrastructure, health and education to stimulate the economy, some were questioning where the money would be spent, which companies would get contracts, evidencing a bit of skepticism that their daily life will improve and that levels of corruption might eat up a good portion of the National Plan.

No Political Protests in Yakutsk

There have been no political protests in Yakutsk such as have happened in Moscow.  The only recent protest was over the alleged rape of a Yakutsk girl by a Kyrgyz man.  This brought the issues of migration of Kyrgyz to Russia and particularly to Yakutia into full focus.  Russia has allowed Kyrgyz to immigrate to Yakutia for jobs.  The Kyrgyz language is based on Turkish as is the Yakut language.  As a republic of the former Soviet Union, citizens of Kyrgyzstan not only speak Kyrgyz but also Russian.  In general, the Kyrgyz integrate well into Yakutia society, but this incident has brought tensions from the immigration policy of Russia.

Is the U.S. an enemy of Russia?

I asked the question, “Do you think the U.S. is an enemy of Russia?” to many persons in Moscow and in Yakutsk.  Not one person said “yes.”  The general comment was “We like Americans but we don’t like some policies of your government.” Several said they were perplexed why the Russian government would have tinkered in the 2016 U.S. elections knowing that the fallout of such would be bad—and therefore, they did not believe their government had done it.

Some said that sanctions the U.S. has placed on Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and interference in U.S. elections in 2016 has made President Putin more popular and has given him more power to lead the country.  No one questioned the annexation as inappropriate or illegal as Crimea held strategic military bases that would be threatened by the right-wing nationalist Ukrainian coup-makers.  They said Putin has stood up to the U.S. doing what he feels is best for Russian national security and the Russian economy.

They said life under the Putin administrations has been stable and until the past three years, the economy was moving ahead. A strong middle class has emerged from the turmoil of the 1990s. The sale of Japanese and South Korean cars boomed. Life in the cities was transformed. However, life in the villages was difficult and many moved from the villages to the cities for employment and greater opportunities. Retired older persons find living on a state pension to be difficult. Elders live with their children. There are virtually no elder care facilities in Russia. Everyone has basic health insurance through the government although private medical clinics are growing for those who have the financial resources to pay for private care. Although medical equipment and medicines are supposed to be exempt from sanctions, the U.S. sanctions have impacted the ability to import certain medical equipment.

Rotary Clubs Bring Americans and Russians Together

Rotarian hosts in Yakutsk. Photo by Ann Wright

Rotarian hosts in Yakutsk. Pete, Katya and Maria (Club President). Photo by Ann Wright

Katya, Irina, Alvina, Kapalina. Rotary hosts in Yakutsk.

My hosts in Yakutsk were members of Rotary Club International. Rotary clubs have been in Russia since the 1980s when American Rotarians visited Russian families through the Center for Citizens Initiatives and then reciprocated and invited Russians to visit the U.S. There are now over 60 chapters of Rotary in Russia. Rotary International has partnered with eight universities around the world to create Rotary Centers for International Studies in peace and conflict resolution. Rotary provides funds for 75 scholars each year for two years of graduate study in one of eight universities around the world.The next worldwide Rotary International conference will be in June 2020 in Honolulu and we hope that friends from Rotary chapters in Russia will be able to get visas to the U.S. so they can attend.

PermaICE, Not Permafrost!!!

Photo by Ann Wright

During the winter, Yakutsk is reported to be the coldest city on earth during with average temperature of -40 degrees Centigrade.  The city sits on permafrost, the 100 meters to one and a half kilometers thick ice blanket that lies only a few feet underground throughout northern Siberia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland.  Permafrost is a misnomer as far as I am concerned.  It should be called the PermaICE as its ice, not frost that is the vast underground glacier hidden under only a few feet of earth.

As global warming heats up the earth, the glacier is beginning to melt.  Building begin listing and sinking.  Construction now requires buildings to be built on pilings to keep them off the ground and prevent their heating from contributing to the melting of the PermaICE.  Should the massive underground glacier melt, not only will the coastal cities of the world be inundated, but water would be flowing deep into the continents.  The permafrost museum carved out of an ice hill on the outskirts of Yakutsk provides an opportunity to get a glimpse of the vastness of the iceberg the north of the planet sits on.  Ice carvings of themes of Yakutian life make the museum one of the most unique I have ever seen.

Wooly Mammoths Preserved in PermaICE

Wooly Mammoth

The permafrost contributes to another unique aspect of Yakutia. The hunt for ancient mammals that roamed the earth tens of thousands of years ago is centered here. While the Gobi desert of Mongolia holds the remains of dinosaurs and their eggs, the permafrost of Yakutia has trapped the remains of the wooly mammoth. Expeditions to the vast area of the region called Sakha, of which Yakutia is a part, have succeeded in finding remarkably preserved remains of the wooly mammoth, so well preserved that blood slowly flowed from one carcass when it was chiseled from its icy tomb in 2013. Scientists took samples of the meat and are analyzing it. Using samples of the preserved meat, South Korean scientists are attempting to clone the wooly mammoth!

“Our planet is so small that we must live in peace”

The bottom line of my stay in Yakutsk, Far East Russia, was that Russians, like Americans, want the confrontation between the U.S. and Russian politicians and government officials to be resolved without bloodshed.

As Maria Emelyanova, head of the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia said, “Our planet is so small that we must live in peace.”

commondreams.org

All the more so because many of the nations attending the EEF have had long-running disputes: Russia-Japan, South Korea-North Korea, China-India, Mongolia-Japan, among others. But the willingness for these countries to engage and promote mutual development is a sure sign of the benefits of diplomacy and multilateralism working.

The main purpose of the EEF – now in its fifth year – is to bring investment and development to Russia’s far east. But the ambitious regional plan, in addition, holds huge promise of the entire hemispheric region. As former Singaporean ambassador to Russia Michael Tay put it this week: “The Russian far east is one of the most undiscovered opportunities for most businessmen.”

This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed separate comprehensive strategic partnerships with his Indian and Mongolian counterparts.

India’s Narendra Modi and Mongolia’s Khaltmaagiin Battulga both remarked how “relations with Russia were at their highest level”.

Putin also hosted Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a three-day visit to Russia, including attendance at the Vladivostok forum.

The Russian and Japanese leaders said they hoped to advance negotiations on the long-running territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands.

India and South Korea also announced that they were forming a major partnership between their respective navies.

Evidently, multilateral relations flourish with mutual development and peaceful cooperation when nations engage in diplomacy and reciprocal respect. Billions of people benefit from the pooling of resources to materially uplift their daily lives, as well as from, ultimately, the dispelling of possible conflicts. All of the nations attending the EEF this week have at some time been involved in combative conduct, including disastrous wars. Yet today it is apparent, and indeed truly hopeful, that multilateralism can win over divisiveness and hostility.

One notable observation from this week was the dearth of reporting by Western media on the Vladivostok conference. Even though delegates to the forum included European investors. For such a major event, involving significant world leaders, to be largely ignored by Western media is unconscionably derelict. Consumers of such media can hardly appreciate the reality of a multilateral world taking shape. Secondly, more cynically, for the Western media to give any normal coverage on the EEF would inevitably confound their stereotypical portrayal of Russia as somehow an isolated, malign power.

Another notable observation is the stark contrast between the multilateralism on display at Vladivostok and the polarizing unilateralism of the United States. Scarcely a week goes by when Washington is not issuing more sanctions against one nation or another. This week, the Trump administration slapped further sanctions on Iran in a blatant attempt to shut down that country’s vital oil shipping industry. Washington even went as far as using bribes and blackmail in a bid to commandeer an oil tanker transporting Iranian export.

It is no exaggeration to say that America’s reckless antagonism towards Iran, China, Russia, and others, is the conduct more akin to that of a Mafia syndicate than a supposed democratic state, never mind the much-vaunted “leader of the free world”.

Sanctions, aggression, bullying and flouting of basic international norms of diplomacy have become the hallmark of the US. Even towards its supposed European allies, Washington has resorted to brazenly slapping them into line. The Trump administration rebuffed a French proposal to extend a $15 billion credit line to Iran, which is yet another American blow to the international nuclear accord. Germany was warned this week by US Senator Ted Cruz that it would be hit with sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas energy project with Russia.

If ever evidence was needed to demonstrate how much contempt the US has for European “allies”, there was plenty of it this week.

Yet the Europeans show a weird contradictory deference to Washington. The European Union this week extended sanctions against Russia – sanctions which are harming Europe’s faltering economy; sanctions which have primarily been prompted by the US.

A new era of multilateralism and multipolar development is unfolding whether the Western media acknowledge it or nor. That new era is epitomized by the successful gathering of East Asian nations in Vladivostok this week.

What is also abundantly clear is that the era of hegemony and treating others like vassals is coming to an end. It is unviable, unsustainable and unworthy. The world cannot afford the bickering unilateralism of the US and its European minions.

This year, the EEF brought together delegations from over 60 countries to discuss the topic “The Far East: Expanding the Range of Possibilities”. A total of 100 business events involving over 6,000 participants were held during the three days. 1,357 media personnel worked to cover the forum. Last year, the number of participants was 5,000 with 1,000 media persons involved in reporting and broadcasting. The EEF-18 gathered 340 foreign and 383 Russian CEOs. Nearly 80 start-ups from across South-East Asia joined the meeting.

This year, a total of 175 agreements worth of 2.9 trillion rubles (some $4.3 billion) were signed. For comparison, the sum was 2.5 trillion rubles (roughly $3.7 billion) in 2017. They included the development of the Baimsky ore deposits in Chukotka, the construction of a terminal for Novatek LNG at Bechevinskaya Bay in Kamchatka and the investment of Asian countries in Russia’s agricultural projects in the Far East. Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Mail.Ru Group, Megafon and Chinese Alibaba inked an agreement on establishing AliExpress trade joint venture. Rosneft and Chinese CNPC signed an oil exploration agreement.

The Chinese delegation was the largest (1,096 people), followed by the Japanese (570 members). The list of guests included the president of Mongolia and prime ministers of Japan and South Korea. It was also the first time Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the event to meet his Russian counterpart. The issue of de-dollarization topped the agenda. Russia and China reaffirmed their interest in expanding the use of national currencies in bilateral deals.

During the forum, Kirill Dmitriev, the head of RDIF, said the fund intends to use only national currencies in its transactions with China starting from 2019. It will cooperate with the China Development Bank. This “yuanification” is making visible progress with Shanghai crude futures increasing their share of oil markets up to 14 percent or even more. China has signed agreements with Canada and Qatar on national currencies exchange.

De-dollarization is a trend that is picking up momentum across the world. A growing number of countries are interested in replacing the dollar. Russia is leading the race to protect itself from fluctuations, storms and US-waged trade wars and sanctions. Moscow backs non-dollar trade with Ankara amid the ongoing lira crisis. Turkey is switching from the dollar to settlements in national currencies, including its trade with China and other countries. Ditching the US dollar is the issue topping the BRICS agenda. In April, Iran transferred all international payments to the euro. 

The voices calling for de-dollarization are getting louder among America’s closest European allies. In August, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for the creation of a new payments system independent of the US. According to him, Europe should not allow the United States to act “over our heads and at our expense.” The official wants to strengthen European autonomy by establishing independent payment channels, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent SWIFT system.

Presenting his annual program, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called on Sept. 12 for the European Union to promote the euro as a global currency to challenge the dollar. According to him, “We must do more to allow our single currency to play its full role on the international scene.” Mr. Juncker believes “it is absurd that Europe pays for 80 percent of its energy import bill – worth 300 billion euros a year – in US dollars when only roughly 2 percent of our energy imports come from the United States.” He wants the raft of proposals made in his state of the union address to start being implemented before the European Parliament elections in May.

70% of all world trade transactions account for the dollar, while 20% are  settled in the euro, and the rest falls on the yuan and other Asian currencies. The dollar value is high to make the prices of consumer goods in the US artificially low. The demand for dollars allows refinancing the huge debt at low interest rates. The US policy of trade wars and sanctions has triggered the global process of de-dollarization. Using punitive measures as a foreign policy tool is like shooting oneself in the foot. It prompts a backlash to undermine the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency – the basis of the US economic might. The aggressive policy undermines the US world standing to make it weaker, not stronger.

If  you are looking for the latest breakthroughs in trans-Eurasian geoeconomics, you should keep an eye on the East – the Russian Far East. One interesting project is the new state-of-the-art $1.5 billion Bystrinsky plant. Located about 400 kilometers from the Chinese border by rail and tucked inside the Trans-Baikal region of Siberian, it is now finally open for business.

This mining and processing complex, which contains up to 343 million tonnes of ore reserves, is a joint venture between Russian and Chinese companies. Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s leading mining group and one of the world’s largest producers of nickel and palladium, has teamed up with CIS Natural Resources Fund, established by President Vladimir Putin, and China’s Highland Fund.

Naturally, to cope with production, a massive new road and rail network has been rolled out, as well as substantial infrastructure, in the heart of this wilderness. Yet there is another major BRI initiative about 1,000km east of Bystrinsky. Work started on the Amur River Bridge, or Heilongjiang as the Chinese call it, in 2016 and the road and rail links should be finished in 2019.

The project is being developed by Heilongjiang Bridge Company, a Russia-China joint venture, along a crucial stretch of the Russian-Chinese border. It will also be part of a huge trade corridor, which will transport iron ore to China from the Kimkan mine, owned by Hong Kong’s IRC Ltd,  in Russia.

The Amur River Bridge, linking Heihe, in Heilongjiang province, with Blagoveshchesnk in the Russian Far East, is a natural part of the New Silk Roads program. It is well connected to one of BRI six major corridors – the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, or CMREC, via the Trans-Siberian Railway all the way to Vladivostok.

CMREC’s additional importance is that it will connect BRI with the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union, or EAEU, as well as the Mongolian Steppe Road program. CMREC has two key links. One involves China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to Hohhot before winding on to Mongolia and Russia. The other is from China’s Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin and Manzhouli to Chita in Russia, where the Bystrinsky plant is located.

Numerous aspects of the Russian-Chinese intranet were extensively discussed at the Third Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September. CMREC involves closer cooperation, especially in energy, mineral resources, high-tech manufacturing, agriculture and forestry. Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang had already announced even closer economic cooperation with Russia, including a $10 billion China-Russia Investment Cooperation Fund in yuan for BRI and EAAU projects.

Monetary integration

Part of this will include Russian-Chinese investment funds, known as Dakaitaowa, or “to open a matryoshka doll”. Monetary integration and energy cooperation are all part of an ambitious Russian-Chinese package. This will allow trade to be settled in yuan, instead of US dollars, in Moscow via the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Products promoted under the “Made in Russia” brand are bound to get a boost.

According to the China General Administration of Customs, Russia continues to be the country’s leading crude oil supplier, exporting more than one million barrels per day, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Angola. Exports of Russian oil to China have more than doubled during the past six years.

Last month, the Russian parliament approved the draft of a conservative 2018-2020 Russian federal budget at $279 billion. This included increased spending in the social sector, a higher minimum wage, and increased salaries for teachers and healthcare workers.

Manufacturing in Russia has actually grown in absolute terms during the past decade along with a slight rise in GDP. Contrary to Western perceptions, energy revenue in Russia amounts to only around 30 percent of the federal budget. In absolute terms, it actually fell from 2014 to 2016, while non-oil and gas income has increased steadily since 2009.

Those were the days when Saudi Arabia and the Gulf petro-monarchies were dumping excess capacity on the oil market in a price war that was bound to ruin Russia’s finances. The draft budget assumes the price of oil will stay around at least $40.80 a barrel during the next few years. In fact, it may actually rise from its current $61.03 for the OPEC basket. Of course, that would boost Russia’s reserves.

Natural resources

As for exports, oil accounts for around 26 percent of Russia’s GDP. Oil and gas as a percentage of total exports fell during the past two years from 70 percent to 47 percent, but they are still the country’s top export money earners. When you add other commodities, such as iron, steel, aluminum and copper, revenue from natural resources come to more than 75 percent of Russia’s total exports.

But the key problem ahead for the country is the debt of provincial governments, and not defense, which is much lower than during Gorbachev’s reign in the late 1980s. Still, the integration of BRI and EAEU now offers excellent opportunities for Russia.

To put this into context, we have to go back to the 1689 Treaty of Nerchisk at a time when Manchus, an ethnic minority in China and the people from whom Manchuria derives its name, were deeply concerned about Cossack incursions into their lands.

Nerchisk was the first Chinese treaty with a European power, and it safeguarded borders and regulated relations between the two neighbors for nearly two centuries. For the first time, Russians could trade directly with the Middle Kingdom and negotiate as equals. No Russian or Manchu was spoken, but Latin, via two Jesuit interpreters. They were well positioned in the Qing court by supplying the Kangxi emperor with weapons, as well as advanced courses in geometry and astronomy.

Century of humiliation

Now, compare this with the “unequal treaties” of the 19th century with England, France, the United States and Germany, known as the “century of humiliation” in China. It is true that Russia gobbled up Chinese lands back then, as well as securing the Amur basin and the eastern side of the Sikhote-Alin mountains, which denied the country access to the Sea of Japan.

At the time, the Qing dynasty was helpless. Everything was later formalized by, well, treaties. China lost what was known as Outer Manchuria and Eastern Tartary. Today this whole region is known as Primorsky Krai, Russia’s Maritime Province. Then in 2006, President Putin solemnly announced the resolution of all border disputes with China along the Amur. Beijing de facto agreed.

Now, with the integration of BRI and the EAEU, Russia has a great chance of fulfilling part of its Pacific Destiny, first envisaged when the Trans-Siberian rail link was finished in 1905. Today, that vision is alive with gold and timber in the mountains north of the Amur, fish in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, and gas reserves from Sakhalin island all part of a modern export chain.

atimes.com

Russia’s government is offering tax breaks, special economic zones and other incentives to investors in the Far East areas of the country, including the Free Port of Vladivostok, to broaden the economy from natural resource extraction to processing industries and services.

“The Far East shares a border with some of the most dynamically developing economies in the world,” said the Minister for Development of the Far East Alexander Galushka. “It’s key for us to harness that economic power for the benefit of developing our eastern territories,”

Companies also mine the region for about 70 types of ore, including zinc, coal, iron ore , titanium, platinum and manganese. But the largest deposits are typically in hard-to-reach areas, with undeveloped transport and energy infrastructure.

Analysts at the Center for Economic and Financial Research and Development said the government now seems committed to providing the infrastructure support needed for development.

“The state is ready to build roads, add energy sources and other necessary engineering and utilities infrastructure for the mining projects,” according to the center.

Energy boom

Investment took off in the Far East from 2000 to 2005 when oil and gas projects in the Sakhalin Oblast territory attracted about 96% of foreign direct investment.

This allowed Russia to export oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia-Pacific nations.

Still to come is the Sakhalin-3 oil and gas project, while Japan’s Mitsui & Co. has said it will invest more than $1 billion to add a third production line to the Sakhalin-2 LNG plant, which is expected to come online in 2021.

More recent investors include Australia’s Tigers Realm Coal Ltd. and India’s Tata Power. Tigers Realm in June this year shipped its first 40,000 tons of coking coal to China from a coal field in Chukotka in 2016. Output for this year is set at 400,000 tons.

Tata Power is developing the $560 million Krutogorovsky coal depositin Kamchatka, which at full capacity will produce up to 10 million tons of coal a year.

The uptick in investments is largely due to a new economic policy for the Far East.

“We’ve attracted $37 billion of private investment to the region, but this is not a one-off action. We plan to keep going and by the end of 2017 accumulate a total of $67 billion in private investments,” said development minister Galushka.

Vladivostok rice

Beside the known attraction of natural resources in Russia’s Far East, the region also has vast unused arable land and a climate suitable for growing soybeans, corn, barley, and feed for livestock.

Investors are now waking up to this potential, said Leonid Petukhov, Director General of the Agency of the Far East for Attracting Investments and Supporting Exports.

“In the Far East today, more than 500 projects are in the implementation stage with plans for another 300, and when we look at these projects we see that the most popular with investors now is agriculture not mining,” said Petukhov.

The biggest selling point for the region is its proximity to export markets with neighboring countries, including China, importing about $250 billion worth of food each year.

This potential led to establishment of the Russian-Chinese Fund for Agro-Industrial Development in the Far East to provide financing and technologies for farm projects.

Russian agribusinesses as well as investors from China, Japan, New Zealand, Mexico, and Israel are setting up to grow soybeans, corn, and rice, as well as establish meat and dairy farms.

Moving cargo

More produce for export means transportation infrastructure and logistics is the logical next step for investors.

The largest projects are the international transport corridors Primorye-1 and Primorye-2, which provide northeastern provinces of China access to the sea on Russia’s Pacific coast.

Russia’s Far East Development Ministry and China’s State Committee for Development and Reform sign a cooperation accord on the joint development of the corridors on July 4, this year.

Other territories of the Far East are working on the creation of logistics centers and construction of specialized terminals in seaports and airports, attracting investment from Japan, Korea, and Singapore.

Other value-added industries are starting to crop up in aircraft and shipbuilding in the Primorsky region home to Vladivostok and the Khabarovsk territory, while an  aerospace cluster is being formed in the Amur territory. A number of foreign investors have found openings in car assembly and shipbuilding.

“Investors are finding promising niches, breakthrough technologies, launching projects and making profit,” Denis Tikhonov, the general director of the state-run Far East Development Corporation, told Asia Times.

Tourist visitors have increased, helped by the opening in Primorye of the first hotel with a casino about 18 months ago. Others are planned with about $2 billion pledged to invest in the gaming zone to build integrated resorts, using knowhow from Macao and Hong Kong.

South Korean investors followed, according to the Deputy Minister for the Development of the Far East, Artur Niyazmetov.

Six South Korean investors have taken advantage of relaxed regulations in the region to move forward with projects valued at $67 million, including an automated payment system for Vladivostok buses and a factory making household chemicals.

There’s momentum building from Japanese investors as part of the economic cooperation agreements signed with Tokyo last year. These projects include coal terminals and production of electric vehicles, local officials said.

“By the end of this year, 85 new enterprises will be launched in the Far East,” said development minister Galushka. “That’s a total of more than $1.8 billion in investments and 5,500 jobs.”

atimes.com

The bill bars ships owned by North Korea or by countries that refuse to comply with UN resolutions from operating in American waters or docking at US ports. The legislation also targets those who employ North Korean slave labor. Anyone who uses the slave labor that North Korea exports to other countries would be subject to sanctions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The Act also requires the Trump administration to determine within 90 days whether North Korea is a state sponsor of terrorism. Such a designation would trigger more sanctions, including restriction on US foreign assistance.

The bill includes «inspection authorities» over Chinese, Iranian, Syrian and Russian ports. The latter include the ports of Nakhodka, Vanino and Vladivostok.

No UN Security Council’s resolution delegated the authority to inspect foreign seaports to the United States. The inclusion of such measures is seen as a hostile act. The legislation is a flagrant violation of international law.

Perhaps, the US lawmakers have not been informed that inspections of ships in Asia-Pacific are regulated by the Memorandum of Understanding on Port State Control in the Asia-Pacific Region, known as the Tokyo MOU, which has been in force since April 1994. Its section 3 called Inspection Procedures, Rectification and Detention describes in detail the procedures of ships inspections. Under the document, the US has no special rights to inspect foreign ships.

Suppose Russia or China introduced a special legislation foreseeing «inspection authorities» regarding US merchant vessels and specific American seaports, would the Congress accept it? Would the US administration and lawmakers put up with it? Do the representatives not realize that the bill violates the concept of international security and will be met with an adequate response?

The text of the bill calls for compliance with the UN resolutions but no Security Council resolution ever mentioned Russian seaports. Do the lawmakers not understand that the idea of inspecting Russian seaports and ships is as realistic as dogs complying with barking ban? It’s surprising that the bill in question was approved by such overwhelming majority without much debate regarding the consequences if it becomes law.

The previous Congress went to any length to spoil the bilateral relations with Russia. The current Congress is doing the same thing. As soon as the prospects for improving the Russia-US relations open up, Congress steps in to create artificial hurdles on the way. Always the same song and dance.

Here is another example. On May 3, the House of Representatives passed the Intelligence Authorization Act (IAA) for Fiscal Year 2017. The bill envisions the creation of a new powerful committee across the security to thwart «covert Russian political interference around the world». The new body would bring together the representatives of the FBI, State Department, Pentagon, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Justice Department, Treasury Department, the 16 intelligence agencies and any other agency, if the president deems it necessary.

Its activities can be broadened to include «such other duties as the president may designate» what constitutes a potentially expansive mandate. The bill requires the committee to prepare an annual report to key congressional panels on anti-Russian efforts. So, there will be a new committee created to duplicate the work of other agencies. This is a good example of what bloated bureaucracy means.

The bill would also restrict Russian diplomats from traveling more than 50 miles from official embassies and consulates without the effective permission of the FBI Director.

The Russian and US presidents talked on the phone on May 2, discussing the prospects for cooperation on such burning problems as North Korea and Syria. Neither can be solved without coordination of activities between the two great powers. The issues are hot on the world agenda and the interest is common. If the abovementioned bill becomes law, confrontation would be unavoidable. Nobody will win, everyone will lose. Hopefully, Senate and President Trump would be reasonable enough to prevent it from happening.