Russia, which has the largest gas reserves on Earth, is second in the world in terms of extraction and first when it comes to export. Russia’s gas sector is one of the economy’s main budget revenue generating sectors and gas makes up nearly 60 percent of the overall volume of production and domestic consumption of energy resources. The gas sector also makes up 8 percent of the GDP, provides up to 25 percent of the fiscal revenue and more than 19 percent of the country’s currency receipts through gas exports.

Hence the close attention Moscow is giving to events taking place in the gas markets. Especially since these changes by no means always impact favourably on the state of Russia’s gas industry and its main player – Gazprom.

The growth of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and unconventional sources of gas is resulting in the accelerated growth of the global gas market. The old set-up with three gas markets – Europe, Asia and North America – unrelated in terms of price is becoming a thing of the past. A critical slump in demand coincided with fundamental changes in the market caused by technological progress. A sharp decline in the cost of extracting unconventional, primarily shale, gas in the US resulted in the US considerably increasing their own mining operations to the level of self-sufficiency thanks to shale gas and, in 2009, the US overtook Russia to become the world’s largest gas producer. At the same time, producer countries like Qatar significantly increased their own LNG production capacity, challenging Russia somewhat in the European market.

According to data from BP, at the end of 2012 Norway beat Russia in natural gas exports to Europe for the first time, having increased its own exports by 12 percent, while Gazprom’s exports fell by 10 percent.

The gas market has changed considerably in recent years, which needs to be analysed and discussed by everyone involved in the market. For this reason, the Second Summit of the heads of state and governments of member countries of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), which took place in Moscow on 1 July 2013, was not only a long-overdue event but also, to some extent, an emergency measure.

«The need to hold a second summit of GECF leaders is primarily because of the serious changes in the global gas market. Above all, this refers to the shale revolution in the US, as a result of which the geography of LNG supplies has changed and the fuel competition between gas and coal has increased – most noticeably on the European market», admitted Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak honestly in an interview with Interfax before the opening of the GECF summit. «At the summit, we need to discuss such important subjects as the increase in LNG supplies, the spread of spot contracts without the traditional link to the oil basket, and the ‘take-or-pay’ principle. We will, of course, also discuss the place of long-term contracts on the global gas market».

The leaders of 13 states – Algeria, Bolivia, Venezuela, Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Libya, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates, Trinidad and Tobago, Equatorial Guinea, Oman and Russia, which together control more than 70 percent of natural gas reserves, 45 percent of its exports and a third of all the world’s gas pipelines, along with Kazakhstan, Norway, the Netherlands and Iraq as observers – gathered together in Moscow.

Russia mastered the role of event host perfectly. In his statement, the Russian president rigorously defended Russia’s interests in the sphere of gas exports. «We must jointly resist unjustified pressure and more effectively defend the interests of gas producers and suppliers on international markets. We want our interests to be taken into account fairly», was the leitmotif of Vladimir Putin’s speech. This position was met with understanding by those taking part. It was noted in their joint declaration that GECF members «expressed concerns that certain measures unilaterally introduced by some gas importing countries could have a negative impact on the stability of the gas market».

First and foremost, the Russian president was referring to the energy policy of the European Union reflected in the Third Energy Package, which not only Russia has fallen foul of. «The main thing is to avoid retroactive decisions», the Russian president observed. «We have invested in infrastructure, put billions and billions into the construction of gas pipelines – all according to the rules that were in place at that time. But then they say: the rules of the game have changed. It is an uncivilised decision. How are manufacturers supposed to investment money without knowing what is going to happen tomorrow?»

In their statements, Putin and his foreign colleagues emphasised that it was not the purpose of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum to create a cartel and enter into cartel agreements. At the same time, the issue of cost in relation to the format of future gas contracts was central to the discussions. «The key objective is to solve pricing issues in order to save us from excessive price volatility», said the Russian president, expressing his general opinion. Judging by the final declaration, the countries are in complete agreement that fair and stable prices can only be achieved by keeping gas prices pegged to the oil basket and long-term contracts, in other words by preserving the situation that existed both 10 and 30 years ago. The only question is: how realistic is this? There are still disagreements within the Forum on the basic principles of how the market is organised: some exporters are willing to sell gas on an exchange, while Russia is insisting on long-term contracts and pegging them to oil prices. Consensus on this issue is doubtful, since Qatar – one of the world’s main suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – clearly does not figure in the plan being drawn up. As is the case with Algeria, not to mention Norway, which has completely rejected the principle of pegging prices to the oil basket and is successfully exporting gas to Europe at spot market prices. Even Gazprom, under pressure from customers, is increasingly being forced to raise the spot share component in its contracts.

Obviously, the spot market itself is both a threat and a challenge to gas suppliers, providing certain opportunities to increase exports and profits. In the winter of 2012 and spring of 2013, the spot markets in both Europe and Northeast Asia were higher than Gazprom’s contract prices. It is not impossible that in the current climate of rapidly changing price and demand vectors on gas markets, it is not the struggle for stability that is important but rather the struggle for manoeuvrability, the ability to instantly assess changes and be able to adapt to them.

Undoubtedly of importance here would be the kind of gas market reforms that would steer clear of unregulated competition, as well as agreements on the use of pricing models for natural gas that would be appropriate for both suppliers and consumers and would take into account the environmental benefits of gas over other energy resources.

Equally as important here would be information and analytical work by the GECF, which so far has not indulged the expert community with any independent research related to developing the gas market. Over the last two years, Leonid Bokhanovsky and his team promised to carry out serious analytical work as part of the GECF Secretariat, but practical results are yet to be seen. Up to now, the Forum has not even been able to offer the market any weighty expert opinions. More importantly, companies, analysts and journalists forget about the GECF between summits, and defining what the Forum does at non-Forum times of the year is not an easy task.

Judging by the reaction of the media and the Forum’s final declaration, Russia has managed to not only set forth its viewpoint on what is happening in the gas markets, but also obtain the support of many of the Forum’s members. However, there is still some uncertainty. There is no doubt that interesting and relevant issues were discussed, but they are more yesterday’s problems. The markets keep on changing. Consequently, even the make-up of the Forum is more in keeping with the pre-crisis period.

Nowadays, nature itself is increasing the volatility of the gas markets and contributing to changes in their configuration. Droughts in Brazil and local hydroelectric power plants are leading to a sharp rise in the use of LNG in Latin America. That is a long way away from Russia, of course, but a major accident involving the «West-East Gas Pipeline» in China is much closer. Along with severe winters in those regions where demand for gas over the winter period had previously been much lower (Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Korea etc.) And the most important thing which is most relevant right now, but which unfortunately did not get much coverage at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, is the scramble for Asia’s gas markets that is already underway…

I happened to be at the 9th Asia Gas Congress in Beijing in May 2013. Those involved in China’s gas market are worried about the problem of high LNG prices and the possibility of a global deficit of LNG which is already beginning to show. Since the beginning of May, the spot price of LNG for delivery to Northeast Asia has risen by approximately US$0.45/m Btu to US$14.75/m Btu (US$521/tcm). As a result, the price for Asia has exceeded the price for Europe by US$3.20m Btu (US$113/tcm). The trend of the spot price exceeding the contract price remains, starting from winter 2013, and is a reflection of the new situation on the LNG market. The withdrawal of nuclear power stations in a number of major energy consuming countries, as well as a sharp rise in LNG demand in Latin America and the Middle East, has started to create a definite deficit in the market. The lack of supply will continue until at least 2015. According to estimates, the increase over this period will amount to nearly 20m tonnes, which is clearly not enough. The introduction of new facilities in East Africa, Australia and possibly North America is only anticipated after 2015.

At the moment, the premium growth in the price of delivery to Asia will lead to a drop in LNG deliveries to Europe and the redirection of capacity to more expensive areas as a whole, since Europe has access to an alternative in the form of gas pipeline supplies. According to Argus, LNG deliveries to Europe have decreased in comparison to levels a year ago by 39 percent in the first quarter of 2013 and by 31 percent in 2012.

Meanwhile, this change in the situation is already having repercussions. Gazprom recently reported a significant growth in its deliveries to Europe (including Turkey), once again emphasising, and not without grounds, the important stabilising role of pipeline gas in ensuring consumers’ energy security.

Furthermore, the steps Russia is taking towards the Chinese in terms of plans for a massive expansion of gas deliveries to China with a focus on LNG, and the emergence of new active players (Rosneft and NOVATEK), who announced agreements with Asian customers at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, have given rise to concerns about the ocean and the desire to find out more about the situation. The US sees the Asia region as the main customer of its shale LNG which, according to estimates, will enter the market from 2016 onwards. As such, America has decided to begin by holding talks about the future of the Asian gas market with future competitors – major gas supplying countries to the Asian markets – including Russia. As noted by the Russian media, «It is already being suggested that Russia will be part of a more long-term, albeit less public, format, consultations already having begun regarding the situation of the gas market in Asia».

Igor TOMBERG is head of the Centre for Energy and Transport Research, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, and a professor at MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations)
 

One cannot but admire the single-mindedness with which President Maduro is fighting to assert his authority and his image as Chavez’s reliable successor. In many respects, Venezuela’s new president is following the advice and recommendations given to him by Chavez during their final conversations in the clinics of Havana and Caracas. With regard to the steps being taken by Maduro within the country, the desire to establish a dialogue with the moderate sector of the «middle class», to keep confrontation with this part of society to a minimum, is clearly visible. Maduro has launched strong measures in the fight against crime, as well as the transportation and concealment of food products. It should be noted that the «fifth column» have been aggressively pursuing and are still pursuing «special operations» like these in order to compromise the regime. Its network of agents is being exposed by security agencies and prosecuted in court for acts of sabotage. The fight against corruption is also being included in the agenda. The recent arrests of «thieves and fraudsters» in government bodies has shown that there will be no mercy for corrupt officials. 

Maduro’s first international visit was to Cuba, with which the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is linked through common strategic, ideological, energy, trade, economic and military ties. This was followed by official visits to the Mercosur countries Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. Maduro also found time in his extremely busy agenda to visit Haiti, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia. The western media did everything possible to hush up his visits to kindred spirits Daniel Ortega, Evo Morales and Rafael Correa. It has censured and distorted statements made by Maduro that Chavez’s policy for the development of a comprehensive integration strategy in the region will continue, including through the implementation of a joint oil policy, in every way possible. The attention of the media has been redirected to less important issues, in particular why Maduro currently prefers to use Cubana de Aviacion’s Russian-made IL-93-300 for his travels abroad. Different explanations are being put forward, but the version heard most often is that from the information provided by former CIA agent Edward Snowden, it appears that American NSA employees equipped «aerobuses» sold to «unfriendly regimes» with top secret surveillance equipment. 

Maduro has also paid visits to Spain, France and Italy. The Venezuelan leader’s visit to the Vatican had considerable resonance. Maduro’s conversation with the Pope lasted little more than twenty minutes, but during that short time important issues like the fight against poverty, the fight against drug trafficking, and the maintenance of an atmosphere of religious tolerance in Venezuela were all touched upon. Maduro made it clear that more attention would be given to the country’s relationship with the Catholic Church, including its financial support. Pope Francis and Maduro agreed to maintain an ongoing dialogue between the Church and the government, and Maduro presented Pope Francis with a portrait of Simón Bolívar, a picture with the image of Our Lady of Coromoto, the Patroness of Venezuela, and a statue of Jose Gregorio Hernandez, a physician and devout Catholic who many believers think will be canonised. 

Nicolás Maduro’s first visit to Moscow was a busy one. Monday 1 July was dominated by the topics under discussion at the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries. On Tuesday, the Venezuelan president was received by the State Duma to begin with and then by the Kremlin. President Vladimir Putin welcomed his Venezuelan guest in the Green Drawing Room: «I am pleased to note that you have picked up the baton from your predecessor, one of the most prominent leaders in Latin America, Hugo Chavez. Our trade and economic ties have reached a new level… all our plans are developing successfully»… According to Putin, both sides are working successively to diversify their ties. The Russian president named investment and energy cooperation, as well as military-technical links, among the accomplishments of Russian-Venezuelan cooperation. The effectiveness of the partnership is borne out every day on Venezuela’s oil fields, where Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil are extracting black gold from hydrocarbon reservoirs at Junin-6 and Carabobo-2. 

The Venezuelan leader expressed his gratitude to President Putin «for the solidarity and personal friendship that you have had with President Chavez» who «always showed great respect and love for Russia». «We have inherited this love from him. We have come here to confirm our commitment to further strengthen and expand our strategic alliance with Russia.» According to Maduro, Venezuela and Russia «have good progress in the energy sector, oil, gas, oil-and-gas equipment manufacturing industries. Our cooperation in the military sector is also progressing at a good pace. Relations in the financial sector, agriculture, culture and education are also developing. We have 14 areas to develop and 63 topics to work on», Nicolás Maduro summed up. During the course of the meeting, the president of Venezuela repeated several times that he was satisfied with his trip to Moscow and the opportunity to «continue to move forward along the track set by President Chavez». «Russia can rely on Venezuela», Maduro declared and thanked the Russian leader for naming one of Moscow’s streets after Hugo Chavez. «It is going to be a very important moment for us».

At the end of the talks, both sides signed several documents, including a cooperation agreement for the implementation of offshore projects between Rosneft and PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil company, and an agreement on the construction of a thermal power plant in Venezuela in partnership with Inter Rao UES.

Vladimir Putin summed up the meeting: «We have had constructive talks and have discussed the key areas of our bilateral strategic cooperation. It was President Hugo Chavez, a strong and courageous man and a true great friend of Russia, who was at the origins of this close cooperation. We discussed our common desire to continue the strategic cooperation between our two countries in all areas and agreed to continue coordination of our work to develop the global gas market Venezuela is a key partner for Russia in Latin America».

And just several hours after his meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Venezuelan president began his next official visit – to Belarus…

Since then some kind of silent ban on highlighting the Forum’s activities has been in force. But it is mainly related to media, because for the West the gas market has transformed into an arena of tough fight against Russia. It targets its most sensitive underbelly – the energy sector. They do their best to use the Forum agenda for this purpose and Qatar is used as a centerfield. Some kind of political outsourcing has become a routine thing for the global game played by Washington during the Barack Obama’s tenure. The responsibility for tackling ‘hot Issues» like Syria and the use of Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan is shifted to allies. The United States prefers to make others pull the chestnuts out of the fire to make it a winner taking it all. 

Talking about the Forum, the existing contradictions have been adroitly used and, as a result, a «gas cartel» has failed to materialize. The attempts of some members (Iran, Russia, Venezuela and Algeria) to create a mechanism enabling the organization to exert significant influence on natural gas world prices have remained a wishful thinking. Moreover, when one reads thoroughly the addresses of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and other participants, it becomes clear that the three core ideas agreed on at the October 2008 Tehran meeting are still unaccomplished. Back then Russia, Iran and Qatar concluded a three – party gas cooperation agreement, which envisioned:

– quarterly consultations devoted to the state of gas markets;

– setting up a technical committee to address joint projects, which encompass the whole production chain, including geological exploration, extraction, transportation and marketing;

– establishing the international journalists and experts privileged club called «Energy Pole», a kind of information instrument to promote the GECF and «big troika» (Russia, Qatar, Iran) interests in the world. 

In a little bit different words the issues were discussed in Moscow on July 1. The fact corroborates the fact that during the five years passed the Gas Exporting Countries Forum has failed to make use of its potential. Actually it’s just another discussions club today, which serves as a platform for «exchange of experience, views and information on gas industry». This is only one aspect of the issue. There is more to it. The Forum is a sort of storage for unaccomplished plans. It is also an indicator of «gas war», an instrument to gauge the options for forming potential geopolitical alliances. 

Russia diplomats often say there are no «fundamental contradictions» between Russia and the West. The gas market situation, the Qatar’s gas market expansion, partly a bluff, partly a string of real steps, it all goes to show the contradictions do exist and their anti-Russian dimension is growing exponentially. 

Actually, the idea of waging «energy war» against Russia is far from being something new. In the 1970s the United States of America did its best to bury the Blue Stream Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod pipeline project. In the 1980s the Cold War was in full swing. The United States along with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies played games to bring down world oil prices. Today the weapon to use is shale gas and Qatar…

In fact, the Moscow Gas Exporting Countries Forum conference showed the Emirate is an antagonist toward the Russia’s proposals to create a really working mechanism of price control and switching to rather long-term, than short-term, contracts. 

Qatar or, to be more precise, the Western management of the Qatari companies, does nothing more than making statements about gas prices that should be high, but «acceptable for consumers» and the competition of producers which should be free and unrestrained. Doha thinks any kind of cartel is impossible because the United States of America, Canada, the European Union and Australia would not like it. They would launch accusations of trust conspiracy and demand the issue be transferred to international arbitration. 

It should be noted, the mechanism of counteraction is already launched against Russia. By the end of June German RWE won the lawsuit against Gasprom making it change the gas supplies contract. Actually, it serves as a legal precedent for other European companies dealing with the Russian gas giant. In parallel, the European Union has launched an investigation of Gasprom activities. 

Against this background over a quarter of European Union consumed liquefied gas comes from Qatar. The Qatar National Bank analysts warn the supplies will go down by 2014, but some experts say that, quite to the contrary, Qatar will increase its European supplies by 50 billion cubic meters annually, which means it will expand the share of European market by 5%. 

The increase will take place due to the following reasons. Unlike Russia, Qatar will not have to create additional liquefied gas production capability. It has already boosted the production potential for US exports. Formally it is said that because the United States had its own gas production boom all the agreements with the Emirate were annulled pushing it to enter the European market. 

That’s why Qatar is interested in increasing liquefied gas exports; it can do it easily resorting to short-term sales and dumping prices, something going contrary to Russia’s interests. 

It also adopted a behind the curtain policy at the Forum trying to convince Russia it’s attitude is friendly, the Emirate is ready to cooperate. Qatar-Russia bilateral relations reached the peak in 2010. In March Prime Minister of the country visited Moscow; he promised ample investments and welcomed the Dmitry Medvedev’s proposals aimed at promoting the consortium of gas producers. In April Russian then Vice-Premier Igor Sechin and then Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko went to Qatar to talk on bilateral interaction and establishment of state committee on gas cooperation. The same year Qatar invited Gasprom to take part in the North Dome (adjacent to the South Pars) natural gas condensate field development in the Persian Gulf which is under moratorium till 2014. At the same time Qatar promised to invest into the South Tambei gas and gas condensate field in the Yamal peninsula and the construction of Yamal-SPG project (SPG is the Russian acronym for LNG). No need to say the Qatar’s promises have remained unfulfilled. In 2010-2011 Russia offered Qatar to take part in a plethora of oil, gas, gold, construction and other projects with the overall estimated cost of 10-12 billion dollars. Qatar never took part in any of them while increasing investments into elite real estate and European soccer teams. 

Moreover, a Gasprom office opened in Doha in February 2013. But as soon as April 1, the Qatari Prime Minister said at a Doha energy forum that the Emirate was intent to compete with Russia for gas contracts in South Europe. It plays a «double game» with Russia promoting the United States and the European Union desire to diminish the dependence of South Europe and Turkey on Russian energy supplies. Especially since Qatar has two aces to play in the «gas war» game. First, the liquefied gas sea supplies are cheaper than the gas transported by pipelines, second, the European Union’s «third package» is primarily targeted against the supplies coming from Russia. The EU is adamant pushing it through. It can do it being backed up by the Emirate and its gas export capability. 

The Qatar’s double game gives rise to one more intrigue, the fact once again proven at the Moscow Gas Exporting Countries Forum conference. Once no arrangement with Qatar is possible, it is worth to think about «special relationship» with the countries which view the Moscow initiatives favorably because they meet the interests of their national economies, the states like Venezuela, Iran and Iraq. The accords with the Islamic Republic may be an important factor promoting Russia’s general advance on all fronts of the «gas war». 

Unlike Qatar, Iran puts forward hard-nosed joint projects proposals, including the development of South Pars… The breakdown of possible accords serves the vital interests of Washington. It managed to do it once. In October 1997 Russian Gasprom, French Total and Malaysian Patronas signed an agreement with Tehran on developing the field. Washington displayed ingenuity to effectively spoil the things. It blocked the Gasprom initial loan which was to be granted by the Export-Import Bank of the United States.

In July 2010 then Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko and his then Iranian counterpart Masoud Mir-Kazemi signed a road map on oil and gas cooperation. Russia said the agreement in practice opened the way for unlimited cooperation. It was a twenty years program on extraction, processing and introduction of innovative technology. Iran suggested the parties create a joint bank and use national currencies to fund joint energy projects. China’s participation was also envisaged. International and unilateral sanctions had already been imposed against Iran. Moscow assured Tehran the sanctions would not hamper the bilateral energy cooperation 

It was all stopped because the United States used financial instruments at its disposal to put pressure: it introduced unilateral sanctions against Iranian banks intimidating everyone else who defies them. Russian banks were quick enough to terminate all interaction with Iran. It went even further. US and European banks demanded that Russian banks report any transactions with Iran. What’s interesting, they do get the required information. 

The matter is that there is no way Russia could stop the Qatar’s gas expansion without cooperating with Iran. More than that, the traditional «looking back at the West» that our diplomacy is prone to, may entail serious economic damage. 

No doubt, unfreezing the agreements already concluded is a tall order, that’s why the key issue defining the Putin-Ahmadinejad agenda was…Syria. 

Does it have any relation to gas wars? Exactly, it is directly related to the issue! It’s not a big thing for Iran to significantly curtail the liquid gas exports from Qatar, which go through the Hormuz Strait. 

It’s well understood, so Qatar, which enjoys the support of the West, strives to get rid of the dependence. The way to do it is to create a «transit corridor» across the territory of Syria building a pipeline to the Mediterranean and Europe. Moscow and Tehran friendly Bashar Assad is a hindrance, the plans are unachievable till he stays in power. 

Until 2011 Qatar had invested around eight billion dollars into the Syrian economy, in particular into tourism and real estate. It had not got the main thing – the Assad’s loyal support of its gas expansion. That’s why the Syrian corridor is «hacked through» by the use of force, while international jihadists get the investments. 

In the given context, the joint efforts applied by Russia and Iran are not guided by geopolitical reasons only. Their cooperation is of great economic importance, it’s the way to prevent the Qatar’s gas expansion aimed at squeezing Russia out of traditional gas markets, or, at least, curtailing its presence there.