The economic collapse of Argentina in 2001 is the stuff of prepper legends. For years, it was the example that we pointed to when trying to convince others that, yes, it really can happen. (Now, of course, that example has been replaced by the dramatic fall of Venezuela.) There’s even a fantastic book about the Argentinian collapse with survival lessons that has fueled many a prepper to get stocked up, in which Fernando Aguirre, also known as FerFal, shared the inside story.

And now, sadly, it looks like just as hopeful Argentinians believed the country was getting back on its feet, another collapse could be imminent.

When the IMF gets involved, it tends to be the beginning of the end, as we saw in Greece, whose crisis was at its peak between 2009 and 2016.

What happened during the previous Argentinian collapse

Back in the late 1990s, Argentina was suffering. Wages were decreasing, unemployment was increasing, and the government was getting deeper and deeper into debt. This all came to a head in 2001 when the Argentinian government defaulted on a whopping 100 billion dollars of that debt.

Overnight, interest rates skyrocketed and there was a run on the banks. The government froze all the accounts and allowed patrons a small trickle of money only once per week. The banks converted all dollar accounts into pesos at the previous exchange rate (pre-default) and suddenly everyone with a deposit account lost 3/4s of their wealth, just like that.

This, of course, resulted in social unrest, riots, and rage against the government and the banking system. What followed was several years of extreme poverty and desperation for the Argentinian people.

What’s happening now in Argentina

And now, Argentinians are seeing something that looks a whole lot like the beginnings of The Collapse 2.0. Macri’s announcement that he is asking the IMF for money was met immediately with skyrocketing interest rates and a currency that is rapidly losing its value.

The unexpected move surprised investors and stoked Argentines’ fears of a repeat of the nation’s devastating 2001-2002 economic collapse. Many here blame IMF-imposed austerity measures for worsening that crisis, which impoverished millions and turned Argentina into a global pariah after the government defaulted on a record $100 billion in debt.

Word of a potential bailout sent thousands of angry Argentines into the streets this month, some with signs declaring “enough of the IMF.” (source)

It’s even more shocking because, up until just a few months ago, it seemed like the country was rebounding under the guidance of President Macri.

He settled with the nation’s remaining creditors and vowed to unwind big-spending policies of his populist predecessor, Cristina Fernandez. The economy grew and unemployment fell. In a show of swagger, Argentina last year issued $2.75 billion of dollar-denominated bonds with a 100-year maturity; investors snapped them up.

Macri’s free-market credentials earned him a 2017 invitation to the White House to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, who just last week on Twitter hailed the Argentine leader’s “vision for transforming his country’s economy.”  (source)

But now the hopeful citizens of Argentina are watching what looks a lot like a replay of the earlier collapse. Businesses are planning layoffs and reverting to survival mode. People are no longer making deposits and are withdrawing the money from their dollar accounts in order to avoid having them frozen and devalued again. The price of everything is skyrocketing. The peso has lost 25% of its value.

…Economists say Macri badly damaged his credibility in December when his administration weakened tough inflation targets. The central bank followed with a January rate cut to goose growth, even as consumer prices kept galloping.

Rising U.S. interest rates did not help. Argentina is saddled with more than $320 billion in external debt, equivalent to 57.1 percent of GDP, much of it denominated in dollars. Jittery investors hit the exits. The peso swooned. The central bank sold $10 billion in reserves trying to prop up the peso, forcing Macri to seek assistance from the IMF.

Marcos Pena, Macri’s cabinet chief, said this week that changing the inflation targets “may have damaged the perception of an autonomous central bank.”

…The central bank has hiked its benchmark rate to 40 percent, the highest in the world. Even so, inflation is still running at an annual rate of around 25 percent. (source)

It’s like déjà vu and there’s nothing the people can do except prep while they can (if they can) and watch the dominoes fall again in a horrifying repeat of the last collapse.

All over the world, economies are shaky

Since 2000, those who are paying attention have watched one horrific collapse after another. We’ve seen banks seize assets and devalue holdings. We’ve watched people starve as money is devalued. We’ve seen hospitals unable to provide care and people working at jobs that won’t even buy a bag of rice at the end of the week.

Right now, we are watching countries, including our own, overextend spending and run in deficit. Eventually, it’s all going to come tumbling down. Things here in the US are becoming more desperate every month. You need only watch the collapses of these other countries to see how this story ends.

Ask yourself these questions:

• Is your wealth protected or is it at the mercy of the financial system?
• Do you have enough long-term food to last a long time should things continue to go bad?
• Do you have the self-reliant skills you need to survive a long, drawn-out economic disaster?

And if you can’t say yes to these questions, what are you waiting for?

The people in Argentina right now are discovering that their money is buying less and the products are costing more. Soon, it will be a matter of availability. It’s really too late to prep when you reach this point. All you can do is hope to hang on.

activistpost.com

The defeat of the Kirchnerists in the recent presidential elections in Argentina was largely due to the publicity and propaganda advantages held by Mauricio Macri, the leader of the Republican Proposal party. Those advantages were provided by the Clarín media group that dominates public communications in Argentina. Macri was called the «US candidate», and this has proven true since he took office. Barack Obama came to Buenos Aires on an official visit and was full of optimism when he spoke of the upcoming golden era in the US-Argentine relations.

In order to earn this relationship, Macri took a confrontational tack toward Venezuela and what’s more, made it clear that he was carefully «studying the consequences» of the Kirchners’ 12-year rule. Now the accusations are growing louder against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner over her involvement in the murder of Special Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who had been investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires. Nisman was planning to accuse Fernandez as well as Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman of conspiring to «safeguard the impunity» of the Iranians who were involved in the bombing, according to one version …

The tabloids have published the «revelations» of Miriam Quiroga, who was Néstor Kirchner’s secretary as well as his alleged mistress. Her disclosures have sparked rumors that now proliferate about corruption, money-laundering, and the involvement of Cristina Fernandez and her family. It is entirely possible that the NSA will manufacture yet more materials in order to prevent Christina from taking part in future presidential elections. It does not matter to the orchestrators of this dirty war that the materials obtained through «bugging» are always fragmentary, superficial, and must be extensively cross-checked. Provocateurs are focused solely on spreading scandalous accusations that can feed a media frenzy lasting for years.

* * *

Bolivian President Evo Morales, with whom the US embassy in La Paz has a long history of grievances (if for no other reason than the 2008 expulsion of Ambassador Philip Goldberg), was not immune to the exposés that US intelligence agencies concoct in order to undermine the credibility of politicians. The Feb. 21 referendum on amendments to the Bolivian constitution allowing the president to run for a third consecutive term ended unfavorably for Morales. Voters were swayed by the story of the president’s former partner, Gabriela Zapata. The president had stated that they had had a son who died in infancy, but Zapata claimed otherwise – that the boy was supposedly alive and being cared for by her family. This electrifying news is now being thoroughly milked by the tabloids.

The media has also publicized information about the help provided by Morales in order to secure Zapata, who lacks a higher education, an executive position at the Chinese company CAMC. The multi-million-dollar contracts won by that company are attributed to Morales’ influence. The CIA’s hand is clearly visible in the scandal, because this news was publicized by the journalist Carlos Valverde Bravo, who has in the past headed the intelligence service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, while earning a living on the side by cooperating with the biggest drug cartel in Bolivia (in the 1990s). Some members of the cartel used authorization documents issued by Valverde when transporting cocaine abroad. After a lurid story about sending drugs to the US inside decorative figurines, he was arrested and sentenced to several years in prison. After his release, he began a career as a radio journalist and is now regularly invited to receptions at the US embassy, where he is provided with the subjects for his «targeted exposés».

* * *

Among the Latin American politicians causing unease in Washington is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a moderate nationalist and the most likely contender for victory in Mexico’s 2018 presidential elections. It is possible that he could be transformed into a «Mexican populist». Obrador has repeatedly jockeyed for that highest state office, but the backroom machinations and manipulation of the vote counting affected the final outcome. Particularly questionable was the defeat from the Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, in 2012. Obrador’s newest bid is predicted to be successful, and it will be difficult for his enemies to block it using their old tricks. Political associates and bloggers who are sympathetic to Obrador constantly warn him that his life is in danger – because that is how political rivals are traditionally disposed of in Mexico.

Obrador is often asked if he is afraid of being assassinated and why he does not request a more substantial security detail. Without downplaying the dangers, he answers imperturbably, «He who owes nothing, fears nothing. If criminals are intent on doing something, they will corrupt every institution of power in order to realize their objectives. Thus, the only way to prevail over violence is through peaceful social mobilization. And it’s best if that takes the form of voting, because that shows that citizens are sick of the corruption that plagues their country».

Is Obrador sufficiently aware of the threat US intelligence agencies might pose to him? No question. Evidently this is why he has always distanced himself from Hugo Chávez. When the Venezuelan leader died on March 5, 2013, Obrador tweeted, «I had no ties to Chávez. My enemies used his image to attack me». Will this help him to dispel Washington’s mistrust and once again vie for the presidency? That’s doubtful. The US intelligence community has plenty of ways to bulldoze Obrador’s political career …

The clues include materials published by WikiLeaks, such as detailed reports by diplomats about their conversations with Macri, in which he in one case urged «the US to take a tougher public line with the Kirchners» and even predicted that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner would be forced out before the end of her presidential term.

As expected, Macri arrived at the presidential palace and began an overhaul of state agencies, «cleansing» the government and mass media of Kirshner supporters. He explained these measures by saying that during the 12 years under the «populists» Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández, the agencies of the executive branch of government had been filled with thousands of political appointees from the Front for Victory Party, a mix of Peronists, radicals, and socialists. These people are hostile to the neoliberal program Macri promised to introduce after taking office, and so he needs to get rid of them.

Kirshner supporters and representatives of Front for Victory and its allies dominate Argentina’s National Congress – in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Congress will return to work in early March, after a lengthy break, and Macri will have to demonstrate a miraculous level of flexibility and willingness to compromise in order to garner parliamentary support for his program. Is Macri prepared for this? That’s extremely doubtful. That is exactly why political analysts think the president began to govern the country by relying on «emergency» decrees. Currently more than four dozen of those are in effect. Rulings were pushed through to raise the rates for gas and electricity. Restrictions were lifted on peso-dollar exchanges. Mass layoffs of workers became a common occurrence, with no regard for the laws that limit arbitrary actions by employers.

Anticipating public resistance, the president gave the police carte blanche to use force – including the use of rubber bullets – to suppress protests. Every day the Argentine media and bloggers publish more stories about the intimidation of demonstrators.

As promised, President Macri immediately began to halt the trials of war criminals. Under what was known as the Process of National Reorganization, the junta that ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983 waged a war against its own citizens. As a result, more than 30,000 Argentines, mostly those espousing leftist ideologies, were killed. A shocking chapter in that dirty war was the practice of «seizing» newborn infants to be given to the families of military officers or politicians who supported the junta. Usually the mothers were killed. The search for those children is still underway, conducted by the Mothers (now Grandmothers) of the Plaza de Mayo association. However, Macri’s supporters deride what these women do. There have been accusations that the association’s work has a «confrontational mindset», plus threats of prosecution for «pleas to disobey the authorities».

From the first days of his presidency Macri has done all he can to express his gratitude to Grupo Clarín, the country’s largest media group, which provided him with a propaganda edge in his election campaign and acted as his primary financial backer. This is why all documents containing incriminating data on Grupo Clarín and its management were removed from government institutions by Macri’s personal order. In order to ensure Clarín’s dominance of the country’s media landscape, the functions of the federal agencies that oversee television and radio broadcasts are being reviewed, legal restrictions on media monopolies are being lifted, and various pretexts are being used to fire journalists who supported the policies of Cristina Fernández. The latest reprisal of this type was the dismissal of Victor Hugo Morales, a popular commentator who worked for Radio Continental. After his victory, Macri showed that journalist the door: the man has too much open admiration for Hugo Chávez and too much imprudently harsh criticism for the new agenda.

Argentines are particularly focused on the new roster of names staffing the country’s management agencies. It is not a secret that some government appointments were recommended to Macri by the US administration, and he approved them with no questions asked. That is precisely how Susana Malcorra became Argentina’s minister of foreign affairs. The Americans have had their eye on her ever since her days at IBM Argentina. Later her career included high-level positions at the United Nations, including a stint as Ban Ki-moon’s chief of staff. Malcorra always maintained a constructive working relationship with the US Department of State, guiding American diplomats and intelligence agents into senior management and operational positions within the UN. Materials published by WikiLeaks provide copious evidence of Malcorra’s consistently positive responses to such approaches from the State Department.

That is why Diosdado Cabello, who until recently headed the Venezuelan parliament, had this to say about her: «She was here, I received her in my office, she is the CIA itself». Venezuela’s leaders have sharply criticized statements made by Malcorra pertaining to the release of so-called political prisoners in Venezuela, whose provocative actions have caused the deaths of dozens of Venezuelans, including police officers and military servicemen.

Malcorra believes the world’s most important powers to be the US and China. Her initial statements do not hold out much hope for progress in the relationship between Argentina and Russia – Russia always seems to take a back seat. Apparently Malcorra has wholeheartedly adopted Obama’s opinion that Russia is merely a regional power.

Almost all of Macri’s ministerial appointees have a very close relationship with the US embassy. For example, Argentina’s Ministry of Security is headed by Patricia Bullrich. She was also recommended by Washington. Bullrich oversees the federal police, airport security, the National Gendarmerie (responsible for safeguarding the country’s borders as well as strategically important sites), and the Naval Prefecture (responsible for safeguarding the waterways). Bullrich will have to work actively with the US when creating plans to establish a special service to combat drug trafficking, set up a system of radar stations, and beef up the border patrol.

Kirchner’s appointees are being systematically sacked from the security forces. Potentially disloyal police officers are being forced into retirement. According to the available information, «friendly intelligence services» will help fill the staffing vacuum. As part of his fierce battle against the Kirchners’ legacy, Macri views collaboration with the CIA, NSA, and DEA as critically important.

Macri appointed Gustavo Arribas, an old friend whom he «trusts unconditionally» to head the Federal Intelligence Agency (AFI). Silvia Majdalani, a former MP and a member of the Republican Proposal Party (PRO), has been appointed deputy director of that intelligence agency. She handled security issues in parliament, completed coursework at the National Intelligence School, and received further training abroad, including in the US. In the past, Majdalani has more than once found herself at the epicenter of some serious scandals. For example, as an «unrecognized daughter» she tried to use forged documents to claim the multimillion-dollar estate of a man who had left no heirs. She was sentenced to three years in prison for fraud and would have served the full term if she had not been amnestied. Clearly Argentina’s intelligence services are now in safe hands.

Marcos Molina Viamonte, a US citizen, was tapped to head the Legal and Technical Secretariat of the Presidency of the Argentine Republic. The president ignored the protests of Argentine professionals working in that field, who reminded him that under the law only a citizen of Argentina can hold that position, that Viamonte’s appointment is a threat to national security, and that the NSA will certainly use him to further its own interests.

Laura Alonso will direct the Anti-Corruption Office, which is part of the Ministry of Justice. Although other members of Macri’s team do not advertise their «unofficial» ties to the US, Alonso speaks openly of hers. She is a member of the administrative council of the Argentine-North American Cultural Institute (ICANA). She has always been fixated on fighting corruption. This is why Alonso began working with the NGO Vital Voices, which is headquartered in the US. That NGO is dedicated to training a new generation of female leaders who can take charge of progressive, i.e., neoliberal, movements and ensure the promotion of «democratic values». In 2008, Hillary Clinton, who was then Secretary of State, presented Alonso with the Global Leadership award, thus guaranteeing her a very promising future.

In October 2015, in the thick of the Argentine election campaign, Alonso published a book, titled Circo Kirchner («The Kirchner Circus»), which resembled a comic book but included quotations from the speeches of Néstor and Cristina that were carefully selected to paint an unflattering picture. The book was advertised through every media outlet owned by Grupo Clarín, which was a sign that it had been written to order. In numerous interviews Alonso has stated that she is searching for information on the «illegal enrichment» of the Kirchners and has spoken of her plans to fight «that family» that «is having an adverse effect on the country».

The signals coming from President Macri and his team confirm their plans to politically «neutralize» Cristina Fernández, who has already announced her intention to return to politics in February in order to prevent the dismantling of the social and economic achievements of Kirchnerism. The dirtiest tactics will be used to compromise the former president. Horacio Verbitsky is an influential journalist who has warned of the very real prospect of trumped-up lawsuits being pursued against Cristina Fernández. Grupo Clarín has laid the groundwork, and its goal is to isolate the ex-president and split the ranks of her supporters.

The attacks on Cristina Fernández will be launched from the Anti-Corruption Office. Laura Alonso is ready for this mission. 

Neither candidate managed to win the vote outright, forcing a run-off – the first in the country's history. Macri won 51.4 per cent of the vote to 48.5 percent for ruling party rival Daniel Scioli. The gap is narrow, but Argentinian channels and radio stations were biased predicting the Macri’s victory from the very start of the race.

Daniel Scioli admitted defeat to his opponent even before the final count of the votes. «I respect the popular will, which has chosen an alternative», he said. Sciolli congratulated Mauricio Macri and his team on the victory and wished them good luck. He did not sound dramatic. The Front for Victory ruled the country for 12 years. Under the direction of Nestor Kirchner (2003-2007) and then his wife Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007-2015) Argentina went through the difficulties inherited after the years of bloody military dictatorship and neoliberal experiments. The «kircherists» can be rightfully proud of their social-economic achievements and the fundamental and consistent policy aimed at protection of national interests.

The Mexican La Jornada editorial clearly explained what has recently happened in Argentina: «The yesterday’s defeat should not be perceived as the refusal of Argentinians to do justice to the achievements of 2003-2015. It’s rather the result of internal and external factors that exist in the national context of the situation in the Western Hemisphere. Tycoons persistently tried to destabilize the governments led by the Kirschners, they were constantly under media attacks. Foreign interference also took place. And not only that. The powers that ran out of steam [el desgaste], the reduced demand for mineral resources led to economic slump, there were cases of corruption in the government… Experts agree that the triumph of Macri, as he moves to Casa Rosada [the executive mansion and office of the President of Argentina – translator’s note], will bring the country back to neoliberal politics that resulted in devastation at the beginning of this century to spark a serious economic crisis undermining the government’s credibility and ability to govern».

Macri said he won the presidential race because the people were tired of economic and financial problems, the growing crime rate and corruption. Mass media echoed this thesis highlighting the results of the presidential race. What about the «new deal» promised by Macri in his victory speech? He is seasoned enough not to make any bombastic statements. Macri only called on Argentinians to work together joining efforts to meet the interests of the country and ensure a bright future. «This is the beginning of a new era that has to carry us toward the opportunities we need to grow and progress», Macri noted. Somehow, he left behind the populist mimicry actively used during the final stage of the race. Macri promised equal access to health care, free medicine for low-income seniors, the eradication of poverty, the creation of another one and a half million jobs and homes for all the needy.

In the victory speech Macri slightly mentioned the issue of overdue reforms, which would certainly spark social tensions, if implemented. The commercial and financial elite of Argentina, land owners, the military, a large part of middle class and the activists of non-government organizations expect Macri to do away with «populist structures». They want him to adopt more confrontational approaches and implement the policy of «open economy». Perhaps, the first thing he would do is the liberalization of currency market that would lead to devaluation of peso. 

Macri promised to build Argentina with zero poverty, intensify the fight against drug trafficking and boost international cooperation to have good relationships with all countries. «We want to work with everyone. We know that the Argentine people have much to bring to the world», he said. It can be said now that Macri will not be able «to work with everyone». Not once he made unfriendly remarks toward the Bolivarian government of Venezuela and President Nicolas Maduro during the presidential race. The Macri’s meetings with Venezuelan opposition are used by US propaganda for subversive activities against the «Maduro regime». Macri continues to sound hostile towards the Venezuelan government after the race is over. 

The newly elected president said he would propose that Mercosur, the trade bloc of South American nations, suspend Venezuela for its «undemocratic» actions against opposition politicians. What exactly does he mean? Some members of opposition took part in armed attacks. Over 40 people lost lives, as a result, including police. Obviously, the Macri’s statements are of provocative nature, because the Argentina’s neighbors, such as Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, as well as some other countries led by left wing democratic governments, will inevitably get involved in the conflict. As a result, the process of regional integration will be negatively affected at the time the region is going through hard times. 

The ongoing financial and economic crisis has affected everyone. Macri will raise the stakes launching neoliberal reforms and inserting changes into the foreign policy. The support of the United States administration is guaranteed. Macri has been loyal since 2007 when he met Mike Matera, a CIA agent. Back then he called on the US embassy to take a tougher stand against then President Nestor Kirchner and then Christina Kirchner.

The new president of Argentina is a 100 percent pro-US politician. Some experts predict he won’t deteriorate the relations with Moscow and Beijing. These optimistic predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. Christina Fernandez and her government have done a lot to spur the progress in the Russia-Argentina relations and cement the bilateral strategic partnership as was agreed by the presidents of Russia and Argentina in April 2015. 

It’s all in the past now. The situation has changed: Argentina, like other states led by left wing governments, is facing economic hardships. Its geopolitical position is negatively affected. For Macri, the cooperation with the United States is a natural thing to do. Some political scholars believe that the Macri’s win in Argentina ends the era of Christina Fernandez. On December 10, she’ll move out of the presidential palace. But it’s hard to imagine she’ll keep out of politics to become a passive bystander, especially now as the Sciolli suffered a defeat and the Front for Victory is in opposition. 

Starting from December 10 President Macri will have to establish working relations with the opposition in the National Congress, where the Front for Victory and its allies dominate in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Argentine National Congress, and the Senate, the upper chamber of parliament. It’s hard to believe that Christina Fernandez and her supporters will let Macri destroy everything that has been created during so many years. A great effort was applied to ensure social stability, national progress and the well-being of the people. They won’t let it go down the drain. Any attempts «to cut» social benefits and state expenditure will spark mass protests. 

The supporters of «Kircnerism» believe that shifting the foreign policy priorities is fraught with the loss of independence and national sovereignty. As Macri takes office, the Pacific Alliance and other geopolitical projects initiated and controlled by the United States will be given priority over other Latina American integration projects. Not «kircherists» only, but all those who support national interests, will fiercely oppose it.