Malaysia – Strategic Culture Foundation https://www.strategic-culture.org Strategic Culture Foundation provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Mon, 11 Apr 2022 21:41:14 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.16 Asian Economies May Gain Most From ‘Bolton Effect’ https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/09/14/asian-economies-may-gain-most-from-bolton-effect/ Sat, 14 Sep 2019 11:25:24 +0000 https://www.strategic-culture.org/?post_type=article&p=190118

Departure of US security hawk lowers the risk of war and has changed the dynamic in energy markets

William PESEK

Turns out, John Bolton is good for something: brightening the outlook for Asia’s inflation and growth.

Oil prices fell $1 per barrel within hours of news US President Donald Trump either demanded or accepted the resignation of his uber-hawkish national security adviser. Bolton had been angling behind the scenes for 17 months to invade every place from Iran to Venezuela. He did his best to break up Trump’s “love” affair with Kim Jong-un.

Bolton’s sudden departure has already changed the dynamics in energy markets. Punters spent much of 2018 – Bolton started in April of last year – pricing in military misadventures. In June, for example, bombers were actually en route to Iran – until Trump thought better of it and called off the airstrike.

For now, sliding oil prices is the best news Asia’s trade-reliant economies have received in those 17 months. On top of Trump’s trade war, oil’s 20% surge this year has been an intensifying headwind from Japan to Singapore. It’s been the added hit China didn’t need as Trump’s tariffs send growth to 27-year lows.

For nations facing dual budget and current account deficits, higher energy prices only add for financial strains. The “Bolton effect” is a load off for governments from India to Indonesia to the Philippines. They face their fair share of inflation spikes over the last year. They all have something else in common: epic infrastructure booms necessitating increased energy imports.

Those with healthier balance-of-payments positions – Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan – have been less vulnerable to this year’s market chaos. Here, too, less worrying about Bolton-instigated clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, South America, the Korean peninsula or elsewhere are a plus for top-line Asian growth. It’s one less major risk factor for executives planning investments and compensation for 2020.

Relief factor

There are other factors that could work in Asia’s favor. The relief-factor in Washington might offset Saudi Arabia’s efforts to hike prices ahead of the initial public offering of Aramco, the world’s most profitable oil company. So might a slowing US. Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration cut its outlook for oil consumption. It now expects global demand of about 900,000 barrels per day this year, which could be the weakest period since 2011.

Yet the Bolton news “tapped the brakes on prices” in ways sure to cheer investors and governments alike, says Ben Geman of Washington-based Axios news and data site.

There’s still a question of who Trump hires to replace Bolton, says Cliff Kupchan of Eurasia Group. “But,” he adds, “several key policy issues will probably take [a] less hardline. Regarding Iran, Bolton has been ‘Dr No’ when it comes to talks with Iran.

Trump, by contrast, says he hopes to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Bolton’s departure, meantime, means that even as Pyongyang expands its nuclear program, the odds of “fire and fury,” as Trump once put it, are declining.

“Bolton never bought the idea of talks,” Kupchan says. “The US is now even more likely to accept Kim’s demand for a phased approach to talks, and formal negotiations seem poised to restart. A breakthrough deal involving Kim agreeing to abandon his nuclear arsenal, however, remains very unlikely.”

Any U-turn in Afghanistan policies could, at least in the short run, reduce the uncertainty factor. Getting a key architect of the 2003 Iraq invasion girding for any number of clashes out of the West Wing is dollar-positive.

Yet Bolton is just a symptom of the Trumpian chaos roiling markets. As analysts at ClearView Energy Partners argue: “We would caution against the a priori conclusion that a post-Bolton administration might materially pivot from those positions.”

Who knows, Trump might replace Bolton with an even bigger hawk.

Good for Manila, Jakarta

Lower oil prices, though, would act like a stealth tax cut for households and smaller businesses. They offer Rodrigo Duterte an insurance policy against runaway inflation in the Philippines. They will aid Indonesia’s Joko Widodo in taming local bond markets and boosting investor confidence.

For Japan’s Shinzo Abe and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, calmer energy makers are always a plus for their resource-poor economies. And in a year in which so little is going China’s way, lower import prices give Xi Jinping’s a bit more latitude to let the yuan slide.

Even on Trump’s island of misfit toys, Bolton was a particular standout for the way he made the world a riskier place. His departure is the best news Asia’s economies have received in quite some time.

asiatimes.com

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A Tale of Two Probes: Khashoggi Murder and MH17 Downing https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/06/24/tale-two-probes-khashoggi-murder-and-mh17-downing/ Mon, 24 Jun 2019 11:00:29 +0000 https://www.strategic-culture.org/?post_type=article&p=126103 A UN special rapporteur issued a damning report this week on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. There is “credible evidence” to implicate the Saudi state at the highest level in perpetrating the gruesome killing of the dissident writer.

The UN expert on extrajudicial killings urged international sanctions against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) who is personally implicated for ordering the assassination last October in the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.

Special rapporteur Agnes Callamard also censured the United States and other Western states for not doing enough to put pressure on the Saudis over the murder.

Saudi Arabia has maintained that Crown Prince MbS is innocent and that the killing was done by a team of rogue Saudi agents who overstepped their mission to apprehend Khashoggi and return him to Saudi Arabia to face prosecutors over his public criticisms of the monarchial rulers. Khashoggi had been self-exiled to the US where he was granted a legal residence status while working as a columnist for the Washington Post.

The damning conclusion of the UN report this week confirms an earlier assessment by the American CIA which assigned responsibility for the assassination to the Crown Prince. Despite that CIA finding, President Donald Trump has maintained MbS and the Saudi regime as a close ally. Trump has repeatedly sought to downplay accusations against the regime over Khashoggi’s killing.

Recently, Trump bypassed a ban imposed by Congress on selling weapons to the oil kingdom. The arms deal was priced at over $7 billion. Trump cited the “emergency” of supporting Saudi Arabia against “Iranian aggression” as the reason for bypassing Congress.

Trump’s indulgence of the Saudi monarchs has at least two reasons, apart from arms sales. He needs the Wahhabi regime for his anti-Iran “maximum pressure” policy. The Saudis are also key to the White House in selling its anticipated “Deal of the Century” on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The stark, brutal reality is the Trump administration has no interest in sanctioning the Saudi rulers – even though its own intelligence agency and the UN report this week have laid responsibility for Khashoggi’s murder on the state at the highest level.

Amazingly, too, European governments have also let the Saudis off the hook. Earlier remonstrations against Riyadh have since subsided. Western media have also largely let the murder of the journalist fade from the condemnation it deserves. No doubt the lucrative business of selling arms to Saudi Arabia by Britain, France and Germany is just too good to let the state-sanctioned murder of a journalist get in the way.

Contrast that with the Western reaction to the Dutch-led probe into the 2014 downing of Malaysian MH17 airliner over eastern Ukraine. This week the investigation upped the ante of blaming Russia for the disaster in which 298 people onboard were killed. It names four individuals who are accused of embodying a link between Russia’s military and the Ukrainian separatists whom the Dutch-led investigators claim shot down the Boeing 777.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad got it right when he denounced the latest report by the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) as a “politicized” stunt aimed at scapegoating Russia for the disaster. “We are very unhappy,” said the premier about the report. “We want proof of guilt not hearsay.”

The JIT has spent the most part of five years propagating innuendo of Russian wrongdoing. It has relied on “classified information” from NATO intelligence sources, which it says it is not permitted to disclose. The JIT has also relied on a NATO propagandist blog site, Bellingcat, to claim as “evidence” that Russia supplied an anti-aircraft missile system to Ukrainian rebels to shoot down the MH17 passenger plane.

None of the Dutch-led probe has conformed to the slightest standards of criminal investigation and due process. The Malaysian authorities have been denied full access to findings, while the Ukrainian state has, even though the latter should be treated as a suspect party given the circumstances of the airliner being shot down over its territory.

Russia, which has been continually accused since the very beginning even before plane wreckage was examined, has also been denied participation in the investigation. Russia’s own independent findings have produced significant evidence implicating the military forces under the command of the authorities in Kiev. One such piece of evidence is that the Buk missile fragments indicate the munition dated from 1986 as part of the Ukrainian military’s inventory.

The JIT report, which is due to continue for several more years, is flawed from anti-Russia prejudice and unsubstantiated “evidence”. It is, as the Malaysian premier said this week, based on hearsay and innuendo. This is a travesty of legal standards and criminal investigation.

Yet the JIT’s unsubstantiated allegations against Russia and its collection of reports have lent political impetus for the US and its European allies to impose economic sanctions against Russia which have cost the country billions of dollars in disrupted trade.

By contrast, the UN report this week confirms serious allegations against the Saudi rulers for their role in the barbaric murder of a journalist. Jamal Khashoggi was kidnapped inside a consular premises, drugged, murdered and his remains dismembered, never to be found. As the UN special rapporteur asked this week: where are the Western sanctions against the Saudi regime?

The hypocrisy and double standards of the US and its European allies just goes to show their cynical expedience. It is expedient to sanction Russia over slanderous innuendo concerning the death of 298 airline passengers. It is, however, commercial and geopolitical good business to turn a blind eye to Saudi state complicity in murder.

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The Global Plague of Nepotism: Political Monarchy Creation in Action https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/01/30/the-global-plague-of-nepotism-political-monarchy-creation-in-action/ Wed, 30 Jan 2019 09:55:00 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2019/01/30/the-global-plague-of-nepotism-political-monarchy-creation-in-action/ Political nepotism is nothing more than nascent monarchism. And it is on an increase around the world with the rise of political dynasties exercising control over both government and business. These de facto monarchies mask themselves as democracies, however, they are turning some democracies into kleptocracies, where a select group of corrupt politicians loot the national treasuries, and kakistocracies, where a group of unqualified and corrupt individuals – sometimes related by birth and marriage – dominate politics and business.

In fact, the United States has, through its history, practiced some of the worse political nepotism on the planet. While not all political dynasties have been malevolent, with some, like the Roosevelts of New York, Kennedys of Massachusetts, Lincolns of Illinois, Browns of California, Gores of Tennessee, Grahams of Florida, and Cuomos of New York being quite beneficial to the people of the United States, the same cannot be said of the Bushes, Tafts, MacArthurs, du Ponts, Wallaces of Alabama, Romneys, Cheneys, and the newcomers, the Trumps. Whereas Abraham and Robert Todd Lincoln, Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt, John and Robert Kennedy, Pat and Jerry Brown, and Mario and Andre Cuomo have generally sought to better the lives of US citizens, George H. W. and George W. Bush, William Howard and Robert Taft, Douglas MacArthur and Douglas MacArthur II, George and Mitt Romney, Dick and Elizabeth Cheney, and, more recently Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Jared Kushner, have been set on reducing the commitment of government to serve the interests of the people.

The rise of malevolent democracies is pervasive in countries around the world. One of the most egregious examples of a kleptocracy is Malaysia, where that nation’s former prime minister, Najib Abdul Razak, is accused of siphoning between $700 million to $1 billion from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). Najinb and his wife, Rosmah Mansor, were discovered by Malaysian law enforcement authorities of spending 1MDB funds on numerous luxury items, including 1,400 necklaces, 567 handbags, 423 watches, 2,200 rings, 1,600 brooches and 14 tiaras worth some $273 million.

Ex-Malaysian Prime Minister Najib’s stepson, Riza Aziz, was named in a US Justice Department lawsuit for diverting tens of millions in 1MDB funds into films produced by his Hollywood production firm, Red Granite Pictures. Riza’s friend, Low Taek Jho, also known as Jho Low, was the president of the board of advisers of 1MDB and is now wanted by Malaysian, Singaporean, and US authorities for being the central figure in the misappropriation of some $4.5 billion in 1MDB funds.

Najib’s son, Nazifuddin Bin Mohammad Najib, has been under investigation for his directorship of two offshore companies incorporated in the British Virgin Islands – the British Virgin Islands (BVI): Jay Marriot International and PCJ International Venture Limited. The firms were incorporated by the discredited and now-defunct international law firm Mossack Fonseca, which was based in Panama. Donald Trump also used Mossack Fonseca to establish several offshore companies.

Najib is also connected to the corruption of the Trump administration. There are suspicions that some of the $75 million paid by Najib's government to former Republican National Committee deputy finance chairman Elliott Broidy and his wife, Robin Rosenzweig, for their "services" in helping to make a US Justice Department investigation of the 1MDB bribery scandal "go away," ended up in Trump attorney Michael D. Cohen's Essential Consultants LLC shell corporation accounts. Broidy, in a non-disclosure paternity suit agreement hammered out by Cohen with former Playboy Playmate of the Month Shera Bechard, used the pseudonym "David Dennison,” the same pseudonym used by Donald Trump in the Essential Consultants non-disclosure agreement with porn actress Stormy Daniels. Cohen and Broidy served as deputy finance committee co-chairs for the Republican National Committee.

Southeast Asia had not seen such grifting by a political family since Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos and his wife, Imelda, fled the Philippines for Hawaii in 1986. Marcos and his wife had siphoned off $10 billion from the Philippines Treasury during their 21-year kleptocracy. When authorities entered the Malacañang Palace, the presidential residence, they discovered 15 mink coats, 508 gowns, 888 handbags, and up to 7500 pairs of shoes. Imelda’s thousands of shoes became fodder for America’s late-night television comedians. Mrs. Marcos remains a political force in the Philippines. Imelda Marcos is a current congresswoman representing Ilocos Norte province and leads a resurgent Marcos political dynasty that includes her son, former Ilocos Norte governor and senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., and daughter and current Ilocos Norte governor Imee Marcos.

In neighboring Indonesia, two daughters and the son of the former dictator, General Suharto, continue to be active in politics, along with the three daughters and the son of Sukarno, the man Suharto overthrew in a 1965 Central Intelligence Agency-inspired military coup d’état. Indonesian political nepotism is somewhat akin to that of India, where the Nehru-Gandhi family continues to dominate the Indian National Congress political party, currently in opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Japan has its own nepotism issues arising from the fact that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the third generation of his family to serve in national politics. His grandfather, Kan Abe, was a wartime member of the Japanese Diet and his father, Shintaro Abe, was foreign minister in the 1980s. Abe’s mother, Yoko Abe, was the daughter of Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi. In addition, Shinzo Abe’s uncle was Prime Minister Sato Eisaku.

The marriage of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner created a major nepotistic family in American politics. Both families, in addition to their real estate holdings, also now have joint hooks into the interests of other nepotistic regimes, particularly in Africa, where Kushner’s business interests are linked to mining operations for precious gems and rare-earth minerals by Israeli firms. Kushner’s Israeli business associates are active in Angola, long-dominated by the Dos Santos family; the Compaoré family of Burkina Faso; the Kabila family of the Democratic Republic of Congo; the Nguema family of Equatorial Guinea; the united-through-marriage Sassou-Nguesso and Bongo families of the Republic of Congo and Gabon, respectively; the Kenyatta family of Kenya; the Biyas of Cameroon; the Nujoma family of Namibia; and the Condé family of Guinea. Ivanka has links to the ruling Aliyev family in Azerbaijan and the disgraced Martinelli family of Panama. It is no coincidence that Blackwater mercenary firm founder Erik Prince, the brother of Trump’s Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, is now involved in paramilitary operations in Africa designed to secure rare earth mineral excavation sites.

Brazil’s far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is not only referred to as the “Tropical Trump,” a reference to his racist views and embrace of neo-Nazi causes, but because his administration reflects the same degree of nepotism as Trump’s. Bolsonaro’s three sons, Federal Deputy for Sao Paulo Eduardo Bolsonaro, Senator for Rio de Janeiro Flavio Bolsonaro, and Councillor for Rio de Janeiro Carlos Bolsonaro, all serve as their father’s unofficial advisers, roles not unlike those of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in the White House. Bolsonaro, an admirer of wartime Italian fascist leader Benito Mussolini, can also take heart in the fact that Mussolini’s granddaughter, Alessandra Mussolini, is a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies and Member of the European Parliament, where she supports the agenda of the right-wing government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

The Brazilian situation is mirrored in Chile, where right-wing billionaire president Sebastián Piñera has appointed his older brother, José Piñera, as Minister of Labor and Social Security; his first cousin, Andrés Chadwick, as Minister of Interior and Public Security; and his brother, Pablo Piñera, as ambassador to Argentina.

There are other political dynasties that are in either their second- or third-generations or nascent stages. These include the Assads in Syria, the Barzanis in Iraqi Kurdistan, the Erdogans in Turkey, the Qaddafis in Libya, and the Folloroux-Ouattaras of Ivory Coast. Add to the mix the remaining few absolute monarchies in the world, and international geo-politics is ripe for grifters, charlatans, and scoundrels hiding behind political contrivances.

French Canadian author Danielle Tremblay summed up best the scourge of nepotism: “Despotism favors the despot, nepotism favors the despot's genes.”

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Malaysia’s Najib sought CIA support before election defeat https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/07/21/malaysia-najib-sought-cia-support-before-election-defeat/ Sat, 21 Jul 2018 10:25:00 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2018/07/21/malaysia-najib-sought-cia-support-before-election-defeat/ Nile BOWIE

Malaysia’s previous Najib Razak-led government appealed to the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seeking American support to form his country’s next government ahead of a closely fought election on May 9, according to a recent expose published by local news portal Malaysiakini.

Five days before the historic general election, an intelligence unit in the Malaysian Prime Minister’s Department penned an official letter to then-CIA director-designate Gina Haspel acknowledging the competitiveness of the contest, while noting that Najib was expected to “win the election adequately to form the next government.”

The letter, signed by the division’s director general Hasanah Ab Hamid, underscored “the need to have US support for the present government even if we are to win the election by a simple majority or just one seat,” and requested that the CIA relay “the complexity of managing this election” to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Najib’s long-ruling Barisan Nasional coalition was roundly defeated at the May 9 polls after garnering just over one-third of the national vote. Pakatan Harapan, Malaysia’s former opposition coalition, now leads the federal government under the premiership of Mahathir Mohamad, who was previously prime minister from 1981 to 2003.

US-Malaysia relations had improved significantly during Najib’s tenure, but bilateral ties notably cooled in 2015 when the premier became implicated in a massive corruption scandal involving the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a state development fund that launched in 2009 with Najib as its advisory board chairman.

Dealings at the fund, now considered among the world’s largest ever embezzlement schemes, have been the subject of a global corruption probe involving investigators from at least six countries including Singapore, Switzerland and the United States. Malaysia’s former first family is widely cited as the scheme’s major beneficiary.

US President Donald Trump greets then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak at the White House, September 12, 2017, Washington, DC. Photo: AFP/Mandel Ngan

Despite being investigated by the US Department of Justice (DoJ) for his role in the scam, Najib controversially visited the White House last September in an attempt to boost ties with US President Donald Trump. Investigators believe as much as US$4.5 billion was pilfered from the fund between 2009 to 2014. Najib maintains his innocence and has staunchly denied any wrongdoing.

The letter to the CIA director alleged that the now 93-year-old Mahathir had “joined the opposition for his own self-interest” and that he was “not a reformer that could enhance Malaysia’s national interest.” In the past, Mahathir has been “anti-West, anti-Semite, autocratic, silenced dissent through force, totally disregarded human rights and the rule of law,” the exposed secret letter said.

“Unlike Mahathir, Najib is known to be a strong US ally and would continue to support [a] US presence in the region,” according to the letter, which heaped praise on the “sound and progressive foreign policies” undertaken during Najib’s nine-year tenure, which the letter said sought to promote peace and stability in the region.

“Without Najib in charge of the country,” the letter said, “the US stands to lose a reliable partner in Southeast Asia, given that the Philippines have broken away from Washington, Singapore and Brunei being too small to make an impact and Thailand as well as Indonesia immersed in their own domestic problems.”

“Meanwhile, the Indo-China countries, except for Vietnam, are too inclined towards China,” the letter said.

Following accusations of corruption stemming from 1MDB, Najib deepened economic and security ties with Beijing. Critics widely accuse him of entangling Malaysia in costly infrastructure projects that could potentially undermine national sovereignty.

Najib’s government, according to the letter, welcomed America’s presence in the region, especially the South China Sea, to hedge against China’s maritime assertiveness. Malaysia, a claimant to territorial disputes in the contested maritime area, had largely soft-pedaled its claims to avoid confrontation with Beijing during Najib’s tenure.

Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad speaks during an interview before his election win at Putrajaya, March 30, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Lai Seng Sin

In 2016, Malaysia took part in the largest ever naval drills between China and a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) regional grouping. A state visit to Beijing saw Najib’s government clinch US$34 billion worth of deals, including Malaysia’s first significant defense deal with China, an agreement to buy four Chinese naval vessels.

Since the publication of the three-page letter by Malaysiakini, Najib has denied having given instructions to write it and also claimed he had no knowledge of the document. He said that agencies related to intelligence matters have the autonomy to perform their duties for reasons they think would benefit them, according to Malaysiakini.

Malaysiakini has claimed that “well-placed sources” linked to the Harapan government have confirmed the authenticity of the letter. (Asia Times could not independently confirm its authenticity in time for publication.) Najib, who some now accuse of treason, claimed the letter appeared to be written “with the best of intention” in order to “preserve the stability of the government after the election in the event of a narrow win.”

It is unclear whether the letter was ever sent to the CIA or if the American intelligence agency ever issued a response. The US State Department issued a statement following the May 9 election congratulating “the people of Malaysia” for their participation and calling for the results to be implemented in accordance with the federal constitution.

Malaysiakini launched in 1999 as country’s first independent news portal and is today regarded as one of Asia’s most influential news sites. Despite attempts to levy criminal charges against the portal’s founders over its critical coverage of 1MDB, ex-premier Najib recently sat for an extensive interview with the portal after his electoral defeat.

Najib was arrested and charged earlier this month with abuse of power and criminal breach of trust for dealings at SRC International, a former 1MDB unit. He has since been released on bail but still faces a maximum 20-year prison sentence if convicted when his case goes to trial in February. He has been barred from foreign travel since Mahathir took office.

Then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, November 10, 2014. Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon

Veteran opposition parliamentarian Lim Kit Siang has demanded the former premier explain the letter to parliament and said that descriptions of Mahathir as being “anti-West” should have never been sent “by any self-respecting government or official.” Mahathir was often postured in opposition to the West during his earlier 22-year tenure.

Though he initially reached out to the George W Bush administration following the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, he soon became a vociferous critic of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and regarded the “war on terrorism” as a pretext for reasserting Western geopolitical dominance.

He was accused of anti-Semitism in 2003 when he claimed “Jews rule the world by proxy,” referring to Israel’s alleged influence over the US political system, causing an international furor. Mahathir has never retracted the remark and has also in the past been critical of social liberalism and Western cultural values.

While Mahathir’s return may have been regarded with some skepticism in the West, the fact that he now leads a reform-oriented government alongside veteran opposition activists and pro-democracy figures has at least initially sent a reassuring signal.

New Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad speaks during a news conference in Kuala Lumpur, May 11, 2018. Photo: Reuters/Athit Perawongmetha

Since returning to power, Mahathir has attempted to portray Malaysia as a neutral actor amid looming fears of a US-China trade war. Striking a different tone from his predecessor, the nonagenarian premier has called the presence of warships the biggest threat to peace in the South China Sea’s disputed waters.

Mahathir recently proposed that warships be kept out of the region in favor of joint small-boat patrols, a position not likely to endear him with either the US or China.

At a speech at the American Chamber of Commerce in Kuala Lumpur last month he defended his government’s approach to curbing national debts that ballooned during Najib’s term. Mahathir also reassured the audience that his government would remain business-friendly and welcoming to foreign direct investment.

Malaysian media reported last month that the US would explore the possibility of Trump visiting Malaysia in November. Mahathir protested Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital city last year and previously struck a dismissive tone toward the American president, describing him as “a person who changes his mind overnight.”

atimes.com

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Three Muslim Crown Princes Stake Their Claims https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/04/14/three-muslim-crown-princes-stake-their-claims/ Sat, 14 Apr 2018 09:45:00 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2018/04/14/three-muslim-crown-princes-stake-their-claims/ The Crown Princes of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and the Malaysian Sultanate of Johor are all staking their respective claims to authority that have far-reaching consequences beyond their own potentates. The princelings of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are heirs apparent. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is the designated heir to the aged and, reputedly, dementia-hobbled King Salman. Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan (MbZ) will eventually replace his ailing father, the Emir of Abu Dhabi and President of the United Arab Emirates, Khalid bin Zayed al Nahyan. Emir Khalid suffered a stroke in 2014 and his son, MbZ has been the de facto ruler of the UAE, in his father’s stead.

Both MbS and MbZ are flexing their political muscles, both domestically and internationally, as they seek to position themselves politically against internal rivals for power and international adversaries, including Iran, the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Qatar, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. MbS and MbZ can get away with outrageous moves and statements at home and abroad because they are effectively in charge of non-democratic countries. Those powers are not conferred upon the Crown Prince (“Tunku Mahkota’) of Johor, a member-state of the Federation of Malaysia, which is ostensibly a constitutional monarchy and democracy.

The Crown Prince, who has the unusually long name of Tunku Ismail Idris Abdul Majid Abu Bakar Iskandar ibni Sultan Ibrahim Ismail, recently enraged many Malaysians when he broke from precedent and criticized the opposition party and its leader, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Ismail called Mohamad a “forked-tongue individual,” in a clear endorsement by the Johor sultan’s family of the incumbent government of Prime Minister Najib Razak and his UMNO (United Malays National Organization) party. With elections looming and Mahathir receiving a well-spring of support as the leader of the opposition to Razak’s rule, the Crown Prince’s delving into politics was unprecedented in recent years.

During his over two decades as prime minister, Mahathir moved to curb the powers of the royal families of Malaysia, including the Johor sultanate. The Crown Prince is piqued that, while in power, Mahathir attempted to eliminate the Johor Military Force (JMF), which has been in existence since 1886 and is the only state-level military force in Malaysia. The royal families of Malaysia, while not quite as internationally notorious as those of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, are, nevertheless, prone to scandal. In 2008 and 2009, Tunku Ismail was involved in two physical assaults of Tunku Nadzimuddin, a member of the royal household of the state of Negeri Sembilan. The second assault reportedly involved Tunku Ismail pointing a pistol at the head of the Negeri Sembilan royal. It was not Tunku Ismail’s only brush with scandal.

But it is Tunku Ismail’s Facebook posting in which he clearly played political favorites, supporting Najib over Mahathir, that has the voters of Johor and Malaysia fuming. Tunku Ismail also indicated that Malaysia’s neighbors also favor the incumbent prime minister over his predecessor and one-time mentor. Tunku Ismail wrote, “Our neighboring countries and I believe that if a ship has been sailing fine for many years but has an issue due to its skipper, do not fix it with a new engine.”

Some Malaysians responded to Tunku Ismail’s posting to tell him to stay out of politics. That earned them a full-blown investigation by the Johor police for “insulting” a member of the royal family. The concept of “lèse-majesté,” which stipulates that insulting a member of royalty constitutes a legal offense, may have gone out of favor in most of the world, but it survives in Asian monarchies like Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Brunei, and Japan.

While insulting or criticizing a member of royalty might earn an offender, at a minimum, a fine in a country like Malaysia, or at the maximum, a prison sentence in a kingdom like Thailand, in Saudi Arabia, it can result in much worse. During his whirlwind visit to the United States, it was reported that MbS told several close colleagues, including Abu Dhabi’s MbZ, that he had Donald Trump’s son-in-law and special adviser Jared Kushner “in his pocket.” During meetings held between MbS and Kushner in Riyadh in October 2017, Kushner provided intelligence from the President’s Daily Brief to MbS. This included US National Security Agency (NSA) signals intelligence on communications between members of the Saudi royal family and other prominent Saudis opposed to MbS’s rapid rise to power.

Not only did MbS use this information to draw up a “hit list” of Saudi princes, government officials, and businessmen who were arrested and detained in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, but on November 6, 2017, Trump tweeted out his support for the arrest of the prominent Saudis, some of whom were reported tortured by Saudi security agents loyal to MbS, “I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing . . . Some of those they are harshly treating have been “milking” their country for years!” Not only were some of the detained Saudis tortured but there were credible reports that MbS had some rival princes within the House of Saud executed. Major General Ali Al Qahtani of the Saudi royal guard force was reportedly tortured to death by the use of electric shocks and beatings.

Some Trump administration officials, including National Security Adviser Lt. General H.R. McMaster, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and National Security Council spokesman Michael Anton, and White House Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert were reportedly livid over Kushner’s violations of national security. However, Trump had all of these naysayers fired.

During MbS’s visit to Los Angeles, where he rubbed shoulders with Hollywood’s “gliteratti,” including strongly pro-Israel Jewish movie moguls, the Crown Prince told the producers, directors, and actors exactly what they wanted to hear, including the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei, made Adolf Hitler look good because Hitler only tried to conquer Europe but Khamenei was “trying to conquer the world." MbS’s concept of history is laughable as it is deficient. The future Saudi King seemingly forgot that Hitler’s troops drove deep into North Africa and were at the verge of crossing the Urals into Asia. Only someone engaged in hyperbolic propaganda would suggest that Iran has global conquest designs. The same cannot be said of the Saudis, who have bankrolled madrassas and mosques on every continent, except for Antarctica, that push radical Wahhabist Islamic religious doctrine.

MbS also said Palestinians and Israelis have the right to have their own land, the first time a Saudi leader ever acknowledged Israel’s right to exist. However, MbS was not so committed to the Palestinian cause as he kibitzed with Hollywood’s Zionist movers and shakers. For MbS, his primary targets are Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, Qatar, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad government in Syria. MbS is willing to work with anyone, particularly the Israelis, to vanquish these five perceived “threats” to the Saudi regime. On June 6, 2017, Trump aided and abetted MbS by sending out tweets baselessly accusing Qatar of “funding terrorism.”

But MbS’s closest ally in his subterfuge, along with the Israelis, is MbZ. The Abu Dhabi Crown Prince has his own high-level contacts in Washington, especially with the pro-Israeli and neo-conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a favorite pro-war think tank of Trump’s third National Security Adviser, John Bolton.

MbZ is now at the center of attention of US federal investigators looking closely at a series of meetings held in Seychelles in 2017 between MbZ; Blackwater mercenary firm founder Erik Prince, who now uses Abu Dhabi as a base of operations for his new mercenary firms – after having sold Blackwater – and who served as a Trump presidential campaign surrogate; members of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency; nationals from Singapore, Russia, Dubai, and Egypt; and George Nader, a cagey Lebanese-American who advised MbZ in strategy against Qatar and who has an arrest rap sheet for pedophilic activities in the United States and Czechia. Former Seychelles President James Michel is a close friend of MbZ.

King Farouk of Egypt famously said to King Zog of Albania that, eventually, there would be left in the world only five Kings – the King of England, the King of Spades, the King of Clubs, the King of Hearts, and the King of Diamonds. King Farouk would have most certainly added the Crown Princes or “Jacks” of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Johor to his list of endangered royal species.

Photo: dailynews

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Southeast Asia Turning into Battlefield: Regional Security Outlook Marked by Uncertainty https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/06/16/southeast-asia-turning-into-battlefield-regional-security-outlook-marked-uncertainty/ Fri, 16 Jun 2017 05:45:00 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2017/06/16/southeast-asia-turning-into-battlefield-regional-security-outlook-marked-uncertainty/ Indonesia and Malaysia, and other countries with sizeable Muslim minorities, like the Philippines, realize just how vulnerable they are. They have been on high alert for fighters returning home from Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) front lines in Syria and Iraq. The group has made known its ambition to create Southeast Asian provinces of the ISIS caliphate. According to a report published by the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), a Jakarta think-tank, Southeast Asia faces a growing risk of extremist violence to encompass the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

The Indonesian military is beefing up security along the nation’s sea border with the Philippines, where Islamic State-inspired militants are engaged in combat with Filipino security forces in the southern city of Marawi located in Mindanao – the island, which could potentially become a focal point for regional fighters.

According to Indonesian Armed Forces Commander Gen. Gatot Nurmantyo, «Almost in all Indonesian provinces, except for Papua, there are ISIS sleeper cells». A strategic plan of defense has been presented to Indonesian President Joko «Jokowi» Widodo. Military facilities are being built in outermost northern islands to counter terrorists invading from the Philippines. Indonesia has deployed submarines off Marore and Miangas islands along the northern end of Sulawesi Island. Military presence will be bolstered presence around the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea, Biak Island in Papua and Saumlaki Islands in Maluku.

Army Major General Ganip Warsito, a territorial military commander overseeing Sulawesi and the border with the Philippines, said, «If the Philippines wins, Indonesia would get a spill-over effect from the retreating militants, but if the Philippines loses, Mindanao would be a strong regional ISIS base that threatens Indonesia among others». So, whatever the outcome is, Indonesia will have to be combat ready.

Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia are holding talks on joint actions to be taken to repel the common enemy. Indonesia has called for a conference with the Philippines and Malaysia to discuss events in Marawi. The three countries, with Singapore's assistance, will begin joint air surveillance over the Sulu Sea, using reconnaissance planes and drones, and enhance joint naval patrols. The joint maritime operations would begin on June 19. The emerging alliance of these states is a new trend shaping the security landscape in the Asia-Pacific.

There are other states of the region affected. Islamist attacks have also taken place in China and Thailand.

At the last year’s East Asia Summit (EAS) in Vientiane, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clearly stated that signing of a comprehensive document on Asia-Pacific security is Russia’s long-term goal. According to him, «the region has no ‘umbrella structure’ that would unite all without exception, the Asia-Pacific Region states, and develop, unified for all, rules of conduct, on a non-bloc basis, of an equal and indivisible security». The EAS includes all 10 ASEAN members plus Russia, Australia, India, China, New Zealand, South Korea, the United States and Japan. Today, the regional security agenda is more focused on territorial disputes than combating international terrorism.

The 12th East Asian Summit will take place in the Philippines in November. Escalation of hostilities in the region demonstrates the need for serious discussions of the Russia-launched initiative.

Speaking at the ASEAN meeting on June 6, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Cayetano said agreements on security cooperation with China and Russia are being worked out. Last month, Russia and the Philippines forged a number of security and intelligence agreements delving in security issues. During the visit, a total of 10 deals were signed, including a defense agreement and a deal to share intelligence. The defense agreement will pave the way for more exchanges between military experts and top officials. Russian President Putin discussed with President Duterte the planned cooperation on security matters at the recent Belt and Road leaders’ summit in Beijing.

Last May, Russia and Indonesia signed an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in defense, including transfer of technologies and joint manufacturing. The parties also agreed to expand intelligence exchange to address the terrorist threat. A contract on Indonesia purchasing Russian Su-35 fighters is being discussed.

On April 3, 2017, the Russian Federation and Malaysia celebrated an important date — the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. The meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak in May last year in Sochi on the sidelines of the Russia–ASEAN summit gave strong impetus to cooperation in all spheres. The Malaysian Air Force uses modern Russian Su-30MKM warplanes.

Russia is fighting ISIS in Syria, while the countries of Southeast Asia are gearing up to repel a massive terrorist offensive as the IS loses ground in the Middle East. They have a common enemy. Russia has vast experience of fighting terrorism to share and weapons battle-tested in Syria to offer. The growing threat puts to the fore the Russia’s proposals on creating regional security organization in the region.

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Sheikh Imran Hosein Shares his Vision of Contemporary World https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/06/01/sheikh-imran-hosein-shares-his-vision-contemporary-world/ Thu, 01 Jun 2017 09:45:13 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2017/06/01/sheikh-imran-hosein-shares-his-vision-contemporary-world/ Sheikh Imran Hosein is a distinguished Islamic scholar, author of many books, expert in Islamic eschatology, international politics and finance, and contemporary socio-economic and political issues. In his work, the sheikh emphasizes Islamic spirituality, ihsan, in the absence of which all knowledge would be confined to the mere perception of worldly reality. The principal themes upon which he discourses are the nature of being, relationship to God and the interrelationship of the three major monotheistic faiths, the Messenger Muhammed (s.a.v.s.) and his teaching, and the nature of contemporary Western society with its deleterious impact on other civilizations and cultures.

Sheikh Imran Hosein has pioneered revolutionary interpretations of the Kuran and the hadises, paving the way for generations of Islamic scholars to come. With all the instruments at his disposal he attempts to educate not just Muslims and Christians, but everyone, as far and as wide as his voice reaches. His success is based on the application of the correct methodology that he has received from his teacher, Maulana al-Asnari, which he has developed and applied further to the issues of major concern for the contemporary world.

The focal point of sheikh Imran Hosein’s study is eschatology, the religious teaching about the end-times and the ultimate fulfillment of the respective visions of each of the three great monotheistic faiths, with regard to the conclusion of mundane history. Judaism and Christianity have well-developed and even sophisticated eschatological teachings, but until recently Islam in that regard has been lagging behind. Under the inspiration of his revered teacher Maulana Al-Asnari, sheikh Imran Hosein has laid the foundations of an Islamic eschatological philosophy based, naturally, on the precepts of the Kuran and the relevant hadises. Surprising as it may appear, no Islamic scholar before him had ever approached this important and delicate subject in a systematic manner. Taking into account the sheikh’s numerous books and lectures on this subject, it is accurate to say that he has elevated Islamic Eschatology to the rank of a new branch of knowledge within the broad system of Islamic theology. It would not be extravagant to also add that he is now the world’s leading authority on this fascinating subject. 

As a teacher of true, traditional Sunni Islamic doctrine, ennobled with the mystic aura of Sufism, sheikh Imran Hosein has acquired a wide following throughout the world of Islam, and beyond. Islam is an exception among the great monotheistic religions in that it has five vibrant major schools, but no central teaching authority or arbiter in matters of religious doctrine. For that reason, and in order to safeguard his co-religionists from the malevolent enticements of erroneous interpretations of their faith, which are often manipulated to serve purposes opposite to its original inspiration and intent, sheikh Imran Hosein places particular emphasis on the development of a proper methodology of doctrinal interpretation. Methodology may therefore be said to constitute the heart of his approach, as he quite correctly maintains that without proper guidelines, grounded in an intellectually rigorous scrutiny of religious texts, no consistent and viable doctrine can possibly emerge.

Confronting head-on the clash of civilizations narrative and boldly disputing the legitimacy of intolerant and extremist schools of thought within the world of Islam, sheikh Imran Hosein is a strong advocate of solidarity between the followers of the three monotheistic religions, Islam, Christianity, and Torah Judaism. Based on his reading of the Kuran and certain hadises, sheikh Imran Hosein is, in particular, a champion of «friendship and alliance» between Muslims and Orthodox Christians. Over the centuries, and during the preceding decades with particular brutality, these two religious groups have been victims of the plundering and conquering ambitions of that portion of mankind that is most frequently referred to as the West. The latter’s main tools of oppression, in the sheikh’s mind, are the world banking and monetary system and NATO. He perceives in that part of mankind the operation of the evil forces of Gog and Magog (Yajuj and Majuj), familiar from the Islamic and other monotheistic eschatologies. By contrast, it is in the form of Eastern Christianity, with its historic roots in Byzantium (to which almost certainly reference is made in the thirtieth Sura of the Kuran, Ar-Rum), which is presently established in Russia, that sheikh Imran Hosein perceives the Empire of Ar-Rum. He regards it as a force for the good, with respect to which the Messenger Muhammed prophesied to his followers thus: «You will conclude an alliance with Ar-Rum».

As a student of geopolitics with a keen eschatological perspective, sheikh Imran Hosein is an attentive and approving observer of Russia’s dynamic and increasingly assertive role in international affairs.

Advocacy of friendly relations and alliance between Muslims and Orthodox Christians by an Islamic scholar of such renown and depth of knowledge as sheikh Imran Hosein, and the interest that he has also displayed in the conditions that prevail in Serbia and the Balkans, should have the beneficial effect of facilitating improved relations between Muslims and Orthodox Christians in that volatile part of the world.

The sheikh’s stance as a reconciler and peacemaker – while earning him affection and respect in many quarters – has made him also a figure of controversy elsewhere. Paradoxically, the latter seems to include some segments of the Islamic community because on many points the sheikh’s insistence on unadulterated traditional Islam clashes with key contemporary political agendas.

I had the honor and the pleasure of conducting this conversation with sheikh Imran Hosein at his retreat on the island of Tobago, in March of 2017.

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Sheikh Imran Hosein to Muslims: Your Primary Guidance is the Quran, not CNN or other Media https://www.strategic-culture.org/video/2017/05/31/interview-with-sheikh-imran-nazar-hosein/ Wed, 31 May 2017 14:57:55 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/video/2017/05/31/interview-with-sheikh-imran-nazar-hosein/ Interview with Sheikh Imran Nazar Hosein, an Islamic scholar, author and philosopher specializing in Islamic eschatology, world politics, economics, and modern socio-economic/political issues.

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Malaysia: US Loses Another Key Ally in Asia Pacific Region https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/11/07/malaysia-us-loses-another-key-ally-asia-pacific-region/ Mon, 07 Nov 2016 09:45:00 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2016/11/07/malaysia-us-loses-another-key-ally-asia-pacific-region/ Malaysia is another old time America’s ally to shift away from the US orbit following the Philippines. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak visited China on October 31-November 6 to sign 14 agreements totaling 143.64 billion ringgit ($34.25 billion), including a defence deal.  Malaysia agreed to buy four Chinese littoral combat ships. Two will be built in China and two in Malaysia.

The rapprochement has taken place despite the differences over the South China Sea territorial disputes. During the visit, both countries pledged closer cooperation to handle the problem bilaterally to counter US influence in the region. 

Najib Razak said Malaysia welcomed the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which marks a turning point «of peaceful dialogue, not foreign intervention, in sovereign states». Global institutions needed to be inclusive of «countries that were given no say in the legal and security infrastructure that was set up by the victors of the Second World War», he noted.

China has increasingly invested in Malaysia and is implementing major infrastructure and other projects in the country. Chinese companies are widely expected to win a planned $15bn high-speed rail project linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore – a new rail line on Malaysia’s east coast. With the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in jeopardy, the US seems to have little leverage over Malaysian foreign policy.

The trip marks another potential setback for US Asia «pivot» policy. The event took place against the background of worsening relations between the US and the Philippines. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made statements about his intent to break the military alliance with the United States and shift to the partnership with China and Russia. He had visited Beijing to defy America just two weeks before Mr. Razak’s trip. 

Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asia politics analyst, said, «This is the new regional norm. Now China is implementing the power and the US is in retreat», adding Washington’s Asia «pivot» was «dead in the water».

Russia-Malaysia relations are also on the rise. In 2017 the two countries will mark the 50th anniversary since the diplomatic ties were established in 1967.

In May, the Malaysian PM visited Sochi, Russia, leading a delegation to the ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit. Back then, Russian President Vladimir Putin said,  «We will be pleased to develop relations in the humanitarian sphere, in the economy, investments and of course in the military sphere, or in the sphere of military-technical cooperation».

The Russia-produced Sukhoi Su-30MKM is the most advanced fighter in the inventory of the Royal Malaysian Air Force.  The contract to deliver 18 jets was signed in 2003 during the Russian president’s official visit to Malaysia. The purchase of Su-34 and Su-35 Russian jets is on the agenda.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishamuddin Hussein believes  his country should «look to the future, to a new era of military-technical cooperation with Russia». Russia took part in the 15th Defense Services Asia Exhibition and Conference on April 18-21, 2016, in Kuala Lumpur to demonstrate the Mi-171Sh helicopter, the T-90MS tank, the BTR-82A armored vehicle, and the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

Malaysia will explore the possibility of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

There are other facts to prove the fact that the US loses its clout in the Asia Pacific region. Japanese banks and development institutions may offer loans to Russian regional banks. Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko told TASS in an interview.

It was also reported that the government-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) will provide about 4 billion yen ($38.5 million) in financing to Sberbank of Russia, in open defiance of Western sanctions. The US and the European Union have effectively banned lending to certain Russian companies and financial institutions, including Sberbank, as part of sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014. The announcement comes before the President Putin’s visit to Japan in December.

The JBIC also plans to make investments into the Yamal LNG gas project. The JBIC is likely to set up a special fund to invest in Russian projects together with the Russian Direct Investment Fund.

The economic cooperation with Russia definitely threatens the Group of Seven's united front on sanctions. The move will most certainly provoke Washington’s anger but Tokyo finds the development of ties with Russia important enough to risk it. The US influence in the region is not strong enough to prevent Japan from pursuing its national interests.

With the Philippines and Malaysia shifting away from US orbit, Washington is finding itself with increasingly fewer allies in the region. The Asia Pacific «pivot» appears to be another foreign policy failure in addition to the Middle Eastern debacle. In addition, the US faces a major setback as Europe rejects the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

America is a global power in retreat. A new US president will have to face this reality. The events in the Asia Pacific region provide a good example to support this obvious fact. In a very short period of time the US has lost two major allies in the region. Japan defies the anti-Russia sanctions regime. The American century seems to be fading away as other poles of power emerge on the world map. 

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Southeast Asia Faces up to Islamic State Threat https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/08/11/southeast-asia-faces-up-islamic-state-threat/ Thu, 11 Aug 2016 03:45:02 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2016/08/11/southeast-asia-faces-up-islamic-state-threat/ The fight against the Islamic State (IS) group is on the rise in the Middle East. Reports from the region regularly hit the headlines. But the recent terrorist threats to strike Brazil during the Olympics prove that terrorism must be fought on multiple fronts.

The international efforts so far have not reduced the terrorism capability and global reach. Southeast Asia, an overlooked region, may be the next battle field in the global fight against the extremist group.

The recent IS-inspired attacks in Jakarta and the southern Philippines serve as a reminder of the threat that terrorism poses to Southeast Asian societies.

The Islamic State has declared its intend to establish a province of its «caliphate» in the region. Several jihadist groups in Southeast Asia have pledged allegiance to the group, including Indonesia-based Jemaah Islamiyah, whose leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, made the announcement from his prison cell last year. Losing ground in the Middle East the extremist group will inevitably try to expand to Southeast Asia and then spread across the entire Asia-Pacific region. Terrorism there is already part of the lay of the land. It cannot be eradicated anytime soon but should be countered resolutely, as the July 2016 ASEAN Regional Forum stated.

It is imperative to keep things in perspective. For Southeast Asia today, the question of terrorist attacks is no longer a matter of «if», but «when». After all, Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world, and Indonesia and Malaysia are two of the most prominent moderate Muslim-majority states. In the past four years, the Islamic State has not only created a brigade of its fighters for Indonesians and Malaysians, who speak a common language, but also released video messages, shared on social media, targeted at Southeast Asian recruits. The IS has so many Indonesian and Malaysia fighters that they form a unit by themselves – the «Katibah Nusantara – Malay Archipelago Combat Unit».

Having gained experience, the criminals can return to their native countries. According to the report issued by the security firm the Soufan Group, the Philippines and Malaysia have each sent about 100 fighters to fight in Iraq and Syria.

Some Southeast Asian intelligence organizations place the total number of Southeast Asians who have made the trip to IS territory between 1,200 and 1,800. Even in Singapore, a city-state with extremely effective intelligence service, radicals inspired by the Islamic State have returned to the island.

As a result, the war has already started in the Philippines. The country has seen a surge in violence from extremist groups in the islands of Mindanao, Sulu and Basilan.

The greatest challenge for the region as a whole is the policing and governance of the triborder waters encompassing the Sulu Sea (Philippines), waters off Sabah (Malaysia), and the Celebes/Sulawesi Sea (Indonesia). This porous and ungoverned region has presented, and will continue to present, a major problem by virtue of the ease of movement for militants and terrorists across borders. It has developed its own political economy over many decades, which involves not just the movement of militants and terrorists, but also human and arms trafficking. Local authorities are often unable to curtail such activities. The challenge posed by the ungoverned space in this triborder area will require multi-national cooperation to surmount. None of the regional states can do it alone. At present, there is ongoing conversation and exchange of intelligence and information in various forms between Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. But cooperation needs to be taken a step or two further, to involve joint patrols and where necessary, joint operations.

On July 25-26, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov took part in three multilateral diplomatic forums organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, which this year holds the rotating presidency of ASEAN. Six years ago Russia joined the East Asia Summit (EAS), which was launched in 2005 as a forum to bring together ASEAN members and their non-regional partners to discuss a broad range of strategic, political and economic issues of mutual interest. The most important subject is the formation of regional security architecture. Russia’s long-term goal is reaching a comprehensive security agreement for the entire Asia-Pacific region. The Russian Minister drew attention to the fact that, despite multiple closed and half-closed mechanisms aimed at ensuring security and stability, a structure to unite all Asian Pacific countries without exception has not come into existence.

The security in the region has already been undermined by the disputes over the islands in the South China Sea.

The North Korean nuclear and ballistic missiles tests have served as a pretext for the US and its allies to justify the deployment of missile defense to threaten the security of Russia and China.

There is a host of problems to be tackled urgently.

The European security is in trouble today because NATO rejected the Russia-proposed security system stretching from «Lisbon to Vladivostok». It may be different in the Asia-Pacific. The countries of the region should not repeat the same mistake. Three years ago Russia launched an initiative supported by China on starting a dialogue in the framework of East Asia Summit on building a new security architecture. The sixth round of the talks is planned for the next year in Thailand. This is an opportunity not to miss.

The region needs a reliable security organization to «ensure maritime security and safety, freedom of navigation and overflight and unimpeded commerce; promote self-restraint, non-use of force or the threat to use force and the resolution of dispute through peaceful means in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law», as is stated in the Sochi Declaration adopted at the Russia-ASEAN Summit held in May. 

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