Nasser – Strategic Culture Foundation https://www.strategic-culture.org Strategic Culture Foundation provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Mon, 11 Apr 2022 21:41:14 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.16 Field Marshal El-Sisi Close to Victory in the Fight for Egypt’s Future https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/02/12/field-marshal-el-sisi-close-to-victory-in-fight-for-egypts-future/ Tue, 11 Feb 2014 20:00:03 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2014/02/12/field-marshal-el-sisi-close-to-victory-in-fight-for-egypts-future/ On February 6 the world media, quoting the Kuwaiti publication Al-Seyassah, reported that the strong man of Egypt, Commander in Chief and recently-promoted Field Marshal el-Sisi, has announced that he will run for president. The important thing is that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt has already nominated the defense minister as a presidential candidate. It is obvious to all that el-Sisi will be the most likely victor at the presidential election, which is to take place no later than April 19. And it is primarily on this man, whom the people see as a «new Nasser», that the path Egypt takes in the future will depend… At the same time, his expected rise to power means the reestablishment of the forms of government which are traditional and apparently natural for the country. The five-year period of disorder and confusion initiated by U.S. President B. Obama's May 2009 speech in Cairo and of the Washington-stimulated «Arab spring» which has brought the country nothing but financial losses and casualties is coming to an end. The plan for the democratization of the «Greater Middle East» is winding down. 

Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi was born November 19, 1954 in Cairo to a religious family. He himself is also known for his adherence to Islamic traditions (he often quotes the Quran from memory in conversations, and his wife wears a hijab), but he is not a fanatic and is tolerant toward other faiths. He has always maintained good relations with the Orthodox Copts. Keeping in mind the irritation caused in the country by the «high society» behavior of H. Mubarak's family, especially his son Gamal, he prudently keeps his family out of public view. He has three sons and a daughter, about whom little is known. He loves order and discipline. Those around him called him «General» even in childhood. In 1977 he graduated from the Military Academy. He subsequently received additional higher military education in several institutions of learning in Great Britain and the U.S. He is interested in history and law. He was the Director of the country's Military Intelligence and Reconnaissance Department, as a representative of which he held the prestigious post of military attaché to Saudi Arabia. He has good connections with the top brass of the Saudi military and in a number of other Arab countries, particularly in Syria. In a time difficult for Egypt, when the West turned its back on it, el-Sisi, thanks to his authority, was able to obtain generous financial assistance from the Persian Gulf countries. When he became part of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt, he was its youngest member. On August 12, 2012 he was appointed Chairman of the Council and also became the Minister of Defense. 

Since July 3, 2013, when the military removed President Mohamed Morsi, who represented the Muslim Brotherhood, from power, el-Sisi, although formally only Deputy Prime Minister, has in fact already been the undeclared leader of the country. The upcoming elections will only confirm and legalize his real position. The path for this was opened by the successful referendum on the approval of a new constitution to replace the one adopted under the Muslim Brotherhood. Critics pointed out that only 39% of the population came out to vote in the referendum; however, they forgot to mention that only 32% voted in the referendum on the previous constitution, and only 63.8% of referendum participants voted in favor, as opposed to 98% this time. The growth of national support is clear. It is worth noting that in the opinion of experts, it was to a great extent women who stood behind this result; they voted unanimously for the new constitution, which restored rights which had previously been taken from them.

The fact that el-Sisi follows religious traditions has served him in good stead and misled the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, who placed their main stakes on him out of all the military. In fact, it turned out that national interests are more important to el-Sisi than Islam. Or more precisely, he does not believe that Islam must always resist modern life or other religious beliefs. His credo is that «We are first and foremost Egyptians, and only then Muslims and Christians». He believes that a democratic society and pluralism are fully compatible with Muslim norms; however, a gradual path to this should be taken, in his opinion. In the research paper «Democracy in the Middle East», written by el-Sisi during his year-long studies at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania, he writes that democracy will be difficult to make a reality in the Middle East because the form of government must be adapted to the local cultural and religious situation. In this paper el-Sisi spoke against a theocratic society, but expressed his conviction that democracy in Egypt should be based on Islamic values. At the same time, he has always said that the army should be on the side of the people, and consequently of all the country's citizens. El-Sisi is oriented not toward an endless confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood, but toward national reconciliation. For example, the influential Egyptian Copts, who number 8-10 million in the country, unanimously support him. It is no accident that on the eve of his promotion to field marshal and the announcement that the military was nominating General el-Sisi for president on January 26 of this year, he was visited by the patriarch of the Coptic Orthodox Church, Theodore II, who was accompanied by six bishops.

The fact that el-Sisi's opponents are resorting to terrorist attacks, despite their bloodiness, is a sign that they are no longer able to organize real mass protests against him and are resorting to desperate measures. With each such senseless attack his authority is only getting stronger, as the population is increasingly convinced of the need for a «firm hand». Popular confidence in him is now exceptionally high. He is supported by former pro-Western liberals, who are rather disappointed in their patrons; religious minorities; and government and military employees; but he is also supported by the majority of ordinary people from among devout Muslims, who see in el-Sisi a reincarnation of Nasser, a man who is capable of maintaining social justice in society. The former elite are also on his side. For example, former president Hosni Mubarak stated in an interview with the channel al-Arabia that the Egyptian people support el-Sisi. «They want to see him as president; they will achieve that and win that battle», said the ex-president. One of the main candidates in the previous election, former Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa, has already urged citizens to vote for el-Sisi. He himself is not going to run again. El-Sisi's popularity sometimes takes grotesque forms; there are posters with his portrait everywhere, often as a collage together with Nasser, and sometimes with V. Putin as well. At the numerous souvenir stands, el-Sisi's picture and initials are extremely popular. They can even be seen on pastries. But all of this does not go against the national culture and is not regulated from above. Such are the sentiments of the people. 

El-Sisi's potential foreign policy orientation and the steps he will take to restore Egypt's former influence in the region are also the subject of close attention. 

El-Sisi's attitude toward cooperation with the U.S. is a strictly pragmatic one. Having spent a fair amount of time there, he knows America well, but he is not at all blinded by its grandeur, for he knows its price. It is no coincidence that some American media sources call him an «opaque» and «enigmatic» figure. El-Sisi was critical of the White House's actions in Iraq, and did not hide this even during his studies in the U.S.; sometimes he encountered angry rhetoric from American veterans who had returned from there, which also apparently remained in his memory. At the time Morsi was overthrown, el-Sisi bluntly accused the American administration in an interview with The Washington Post of unfriendly actions toward his country: «You left the Egyptians. You turned your back on the Egyptians, and they won’t forget that». The fact that Cairo has already refused to accept Robert Ford, the current American representative in Syria who is well known for his close ties with the Islamist Syrian opposition, as the future U.S. ambassador is quite noteworthy, for example. This also characterizes el-Sisi's attitude toward events in that country, especially considering the fact that it is most likely on his initiative that official relations between Cairo and Damascus, broken off by the Muslim Brotherhood, were reestablished. Nevertheless, the Americans, who announced the suspension of their yearly military aid to Egypt in the amount of 1.5 billion dollars after the army came to power there, were forced to announce a return to their former practice for geopolitical reasons.

One of the reasons the White House decided to reestablish the aid payments was obviously concern about the security of Israel and the possibility of Cairo switching to other strategic preferences. For example, the Israeli media frightened the West with Moscow's supposed ambition to create bases for its navy in Egypt, indicating four prospective locations for them – in Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta and Rosetta – as well as with plans for large shipments of Russian armaments meant to fully replace American models. But where would Russia get so many ships, or Egypt so much money? The point of these scare tactics is quite obvious. Israel has no interest in the Americans turning away from Egypt and is motivating them to keep it in their tight embrace. 

At the same time, the Russian vector of Egypt's future policy indeed has good prospects, but they are a result not of mythical military preparations, but of objective economic factors. The three pillars of the modern Egyptian economy are tourism, revenues from the Suez Canal and extraction of natural gas. With regard to Suez Egypt is not dependent on anyone, but with regard to gas and especially tourism, cooperation with Russia could be of the closest kind. Russian citizens, who are not easily frightened by anything, literally saved the country's tourism industry in the crisis-filled year 2013; 2.5 million people visited Egypt that year. For its part, Egypt, which is highly dependent on food imports, imported 3 billion dollars' worth of grain alone from Russia in that same year, taking first place in this category of Russia's exports. The planned creation of a free trade zone between Egypt and the Customs Union could give the further development of cooperation between the two countries a strong impetus. If one considers that the famous American military aid is mostly just credits for price reductions on outdated armaments which could easily be replaced with shipments from other places on favorable terms, it turns out that Washington simply has nothing to offer that the Egyptian people truly need.

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Will General Al-Sisi Be a New Nasser? https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/08/22/will-general-al-sisi-be-a-new-nasser/ Wed, 21 Aug 2013 20:00:04 +0000 https://strategic-culture.lo/news/2013/08/22/will-general-al-sisi-be-a-new-nasser/ What is happening in Egypt, especially the August 14 crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood camps, is in many ways reminiscent of events in Algeria in the early '90s, when as a result of a civil war started by local Islamists, who had been removed from power, about 200,000 people were killed. At the same time, there is reason to believe that the Egyptian military and law enforcement agencies will not permit such a situation to arise, as they are the only organized military force in the country, they maintain absolute unity in their ranks and they have the support of significant segments of the population. The military's line has been supported not only by the Coptic Christians and secular society, who are unhappy with the spread of sharia law, but also by many conservative circles which believe that the Muslim Brotherhood has borrowed its political model from the West. More and more people believe that the country was brought to crisis not by dead-end Nasserism, but by a departure from it.

Many have noticed the unprecedented support of Saudi Arabia for the Egyptian military's actions, which they have declared, despite the facts of the harsh suppression of mass protests, a «fight against terrorism». The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the UAE have been stanch supporters of the leader of the military regime, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. In the face of serious socio-economic problems compounded by unrest, financial aid from these Arab states could become a decisive factor for Egypt in consolidating the situation in the country under army leadership. Moscow has also been paying attention to the unexpected Saudi-Egyptian alliance, as shown, for example, by the recent visit of the director general of the Saudi Intelligence Agency, Prince Bandar, to Moscow and his exhaustive 4-hour conversation with Russian President V. Putin. It is interesting that Prince Bandar did not respond to a similar invitation from Washington, which speaks indirectly of Riyadh's dissatisfaction with U.S. policy in the Middle East. An extremely curious configuration of powers is taking shape which could have positive significance for the resolution of other problems as well, particularly in overcoming the crisis in Syria. 

President Obama prefers not to publicly support the Egyptian military regime. After the bloody events of August 14 he attempted to call General al-Sisi and urge him to «stop repressing the protesters and firing live ammunition». The White House officially condemned the declaration of a state of emergency in the country. However, according to some sources, «Egypt's strongman» did not even take Obama's call – unheard-of audacity. Instead, the Egyptians suggested that the White House call the interim president Adly Mansour, which the Americans, in turn, declined to do. This is an admission of how limited U.S. influence now is; attempts to talk the Egyptian generals out of harsh measures against protestors failed, and the refusal to grant Egypt 1.3 billion dollars in American aid will simply become an invitation for rich Arab states to replace the U.S. in this role. The KSA and UAE have already provided the Egyptian military regime with 12 billion dollars, and the total amount of promised aid comes to 40 billion dollars. The stakes are high. After all, the Muslim Brotherhood are republicans, and despite their adherence to Islam, for the Persian Gulf monarchies they are deadly enemies. Power is more important than religion to the Brotherhood. The Americans continue to harp on democracy in the Middle East, but an increasing number of observers are coming to the conclusion that by that they mean not the freedom for the people to choose, but the proverbial «controlled chaos».

Defense Minister and Commander of the Egyptian army Abdel Fattah al-Sisi openly criticized the administration of the U.S. and President Obama, saying, «You left the Egyptians, you turned your back on the Egyptians and they won't forget that». Al-Sisi urged the administration to do more to support his country, including exerting influence on the Muslim Brotherhood.

Experts recognize that «today, a democratic transition that the West sought to portray as a model that other Arab nations could emulate lies in tatters».

Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer writes, «One thing already can be said for certain: the basic distribution of power within Egyptian society has not changed. The military and the Muslim Brotherhood divide power between themselves. The Western-oriented liberals do not have any real power and stand, as we are seeing now, on the army’s shoulders». In a broader sense, the military coup in Egypt, along with the civil war in Syria, the destabilization of Lebanon which threatens to spread to Jordan, and the prevalence of violence in Iraq, heralds, in Fischer's view, the end of the Arab revolutions, at least for the time being. 

And well-known economist Jeffrey Sachs believes that «here, the feckless West – torn between its democratic rhetoric and its antipathy to the Islamists – showed its hand. The result was equivocation and delay, rather than commitment and assistance. The IMF has talked with the Egyptian government for two and a half years since Mubarak’s overthrow without so much as lending a single cent, sealing the Egyptian economy’s fate and contributing to public unrest and the recent coup».

Analysts are increasingly interested in the future course of Egypt. They are paying special attention to the current de facto leader of the country, General al-Sisi. For example, journalist Yasser Rizk from the Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm describes his meeting with General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in early 2011, when the latter was Egypt's director of military intelligence. It turns out that as early as April 2010 General al-Sisi predicted the inevitability of a popular revolution against the Mubarak regime in a report to Marshal Tantawi and suggested that the army support the people. It is not surprising that subsequently, on August 12, 2012, Mursi appointed him commander in chief and minister of defense. Among the Muslim Brotherhood there was even a widespread rumor that he was a secret member of their brotherhood. However, Rizk asserts that al-Sisi was always first and foremost an «Egyptian nationalist».

After al-Sisi took his new post, his first goal was to restore the fighting capacity of the Egyptian army. He also kept it from participating in political games and interparty conflicts. The general hoped that «the political forces would reach a consensus for the sake of Egypt's future». For him the coup was a matter of necessity. Afterwards, one of al-Sisi's first decisions was the dismissal of General Shehata as the director of Egypt's General Intelligence Directorate, a very important post in Egypt's situation, on July 5 and the appointment of General Mohamed Fareed al-Tuhami, who had for a long time headed the Administrative Control Authority under Mubarak. Thus, al-Sisi already made clear his intent to partially reinstate prior experience.

Al-Sisi, as those who know him well point out, is a calm, level-headed and self-assured person. Despite his seeming mildness, which at one time deceived Mursi, he has a very determined character. At the same time he is sensitive: when he hears the traditional solemn address «the great, free Egyptian people», his eyes fill with tears. He has undoubted charisma. He believes in his mission to save Egypt from impending catastrophe. He places the interests of his country above all. He once told Yasser Rizk, «Egypt is the mother of the world and, God willing, it will fulfill this role». The journalist is certain that in his qualities al-Sisi can only be compared with «the extraordinary leader Gamal Abdel Nasser». The commander of the Egyptian army refuted reports that he plans to run for President of Egypt, although he did not fully rule out the possibility.  But according to DEBKAfile, al-Sisi will almost certainly run for the highest government post late this year and has already essentially begun his election campaign. He plans to restore the traditional high status of the army in Egyptian socio-political life, despite protests from Europe and America. Al-Sisi plans to conduct democratic changes under his own strict control. One of his main characteristics is that he claims to represent the interests of all Egyptians, not only one religious or social group. 

Some experts see al-Sisi as a symbol of «reborn Egyptian nationalism» whose roots go back to Nasser. If events confirm such an assessment, it will serve as a historical justification for advancing military men to the center of social change in Egypt. It is no accident that demonstrators in Cairo who support the actions of the military regime carry portraits of Nasser and al-Sisi in front of them, pointing out the continuity from one to the other. Media loyal to the military regime is more and more frequently calling al-Sisi the «new Nasser», while experts such as Cairo University professor Mohamed Soffar assert that «Egyptians are psychologically not ready for a civilian leader».

The rebirth of the spirit of Nasserism as an ideological and political foundation for the activities of the new government in a critical moment for the country could also open new opportunities for collaboration between Egypt and Russia. In Moscow, as in Cairo, they remember that in the Nasser era this collaboration was very productive, and Egypt was then an influential factor in world politics, including as part of the Non-Aligned Movement.

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