All the media excitement is sound and fury signifying little. Trump’s troop drawdown is not a gift to Russia. Rather, it is more an expression of rift and a temper tantrum by Trump, with little intended strategic consequence.

For a start, the news of withdrawing American forces from Germany – about a third of the current total of 35,000 – was not officially announced by the White House nor the Pentagon. It was first reported on June 5 by the Wall Street Journal attributed to administration sources. In other words, it has the hallmark of a leak with a political or personal agenda. That suggests the “news” came from President Trump and his clique, including the mischievous former US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell.

Incredibly, neither the Pentagon nor the German government were officially informed about what would be a momentous troop movement, given that US troops have been stationed in Germany since the end of World War Two. The country houses the largest US bases in Europe. It is therefore a cornerstone to the NATO alliance.

The lack of formal communication indicates that Trump’s purported order was more motivated by pique and caprice than signifying a strategic shift in US forces away from Europe, or, as the president has himself several times threatened to do before, to walk away from NATO. The latter notion touted by Trump in his obsession over squeezing European military budgets is nothing but bombast and bluff, given the structural importance of NATO to American power projection. Transactional money-obsessed Trump probably doesn’t even understand the strategic picture of how NATO and Germany are a vital European bridge for US imperialism.

Secondly, Trump’s record shows that he is all talk and no action when it comes to removing troops. He made a big fanfare about US soldiers coming home from Syria and Afghanistan, yet nearly a year on from those promises there have been no discernible drawdowns.

Even if there was a credible plan to take US troops out of Germany, that doesn’t mean American forces are reducing their footprint across Europe. Under Trump there has been a continued build-up of US forces in the Baltic states with greater emphasis on rotational presence of brigades. His envoys in Europe have also dangled the idea of relocating US forces from Germany to Poland. Given the Russophobic politics of Poland and the Baltic states, the ostensible troop drawdown from Germany would hardly be a “gift” to Russia.

So, what is going on?

Trump seems to be delivering a snub to German Chancellor Angela Merkel as well as to his own Pentagon chiefs.

Several reports indicate that Trump was enraged by Merkel’s decision to skip on a G7 summit to be hosted in Washington by the American president later this month. Her decision reported last week was said to be made in light of coronavirus concerns and also due to Merkel’s misgivings over Trump’s earlier order to pull US funding from the World Health Organization. A few days after Merkel’s reported reluctance to attend the G7 summit the WSJ then reported the news of Trump’s troop pullout plan from Germany. Adding to the sense of retaliation was the astounding fact that Berlin was not consulted or informed in advance. That suggests the aim was to belittle Berlin as much as possible.

The second front of Trump’s malice involves the Pentagon. As Associated Press reported this week the president’s relations with his military chiefs is near “breaking point”. The acrimony is due to the pushback by current and former Pentagon officials over Trump’s threats to deploy the military to curb mass protests against police violence and the killing of African-American man George Floyd in Minneapolis last month.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley have both balked at the president’s call for combat troops to be sent on to the streets of the capital and other cities to quell the protests. Trump has reportedly engaged in “shouting matches” with his senior military officials over their refusal to commit troops in large numbers. The reluctance by the Pentagon is no doubt motivated by apprehensions that such a move could inflame an already volatile situation and provoke mass insurrection.

Knowing Trump’s notoriously thin skin and insatiable ego, the perceived rejection by Merkel over the proposed G7 summit, followed by the Pentagon brass giving a cold shoulder to his domestic executive power display, that had the combined effect of Trump’s hasty leak about taking US troops out of Germany. The move is therefore all about Trump trying to pull rank on America’s German vassal and poking the US generals in the eye.

It is doubtful that the knee-jerk move has any intended strategic significance. Certainly it is not a “gift” to Russia, as some Trump opponents have hyperventilated about.

Just look at the intensifying sanctions belligerence under Trump on Russia over the Nord Stream 2 natural gas project, and the ongoing US-led NATO build-up against Moscow. The latest kerfuffle about Trump purportedly taking troops out of Germany is merely reactionary wheels-within-wheels of a bigger and systematic hostile US posture towards Russia.

Pepe ESCOBAR

Once upon a time in Pipelineistan, tales of woe were the norm. Shattered dreams littered the chessboard – from IPI vs. TAPI in the AfPak realm to the neck-twisting Nabucco opera in Europe.

In sharp contrast, whenever China entered the picture, successful completion prevailed. Beijing financed a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang, finished in 2009, and will profit from two spectacular Power of Siberia deals with Russia.

And then there’s Ukraine. Maidan was a project of the Barack Obama administration, featuring a sterling cast led by POTUS, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John McCain and last but not least, prime Kiev cookie distributor Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland.

Ukraine was also supposed to prevent Russia from deepening energy ties with Germany, as well as other European destinations.

Well, it did not exactly play like that. Nord Stream was already operational. South Stream was Gazprom’s project to southeast Europe. Relentless pressure by the Obama administration derailed it. Yet that only worked to enable a resurrection: the already completed TurkStream, with gas starting to flow in January 2020.

The battlefield then changed to Nord Stream 2. This time relentless Donald Trump administration pressure did not derail it. On the contrary: it will be completed by the end of 2020.

Richard Grennel, the US ambassador to Germany, branded a “superstar” by President Trump, was furious. True to script, he threatened Nordstream 2 partners – ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall – with “new sanctions.”

Worse: he stressed that Germany “must stop feeding the beast at a time when it does not pay enough to NATO.”

“Feeding the beast” is not exactly subtle code for energy trade with Russia.

Peter Altmaier, German minister of economic affairs and energy, was not impressed. Berlin does not recognize any legality in extra-territorial sanctions. 

Grennel, on top of it, is not exactly popular in Berlin. Diplomats popped the champagne when they knew he was going back home to become the head of US national intelligence.

Trump administration sanctions delayed Nordstream 2 for around one year, at best. What really matters is that in this interval Kiev had to sign a gas transit deal with Gazprom. What no one is talking about is that by 2025 no Russian gas will be transiting across Ukraine towards Europe.

So the whole Maidan project was in fact useless.

It’s a running joke in Brussels that the EU never had and will never have a unified energy policy towards Russia. The EU came up with a gas directive to force the ownership of Nord Stream 2 to be separated from the gas flowing through the pipeline. German courts applied their own “nein.”

Nord Stream 2 is a serious matter of national energy security for Germany. And that is enough to trump whatever Brussels may concoct.

And don’t forget Siberia 

The moral of this fable is that now two key Pipelineistan nodes – Turk Stream and Nord Stream 2 – are established as umbilical steel cords linking Russia with two NATO allies.

And true to proverbial win-win scripts, now it’s also time for China to look into solidifying its European relations.

Last week, German chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese premier Li Keqiang had a video conference to discuss Covid-19 and China-EU economic policy.

That was a day after Merkel and President Xi had spoken, when they agreed that the China-EU summit in Leipzig on September 14 would have to be postponed.

This summit should be the climax of the German presidency of the EU, which starts on July 1. That’s when Germany would be able to present a unified policy towards China, uniting in theory the 27 EU members and not only the 17+1 from Central Europe and the Balkans – including 11 EU members – that already have a privileged relationship with Beijing and are on board for the Belt and Road Initiative.

In contrast with the Trump administration, Merkel does privilege a clear, comprehensive trade partnership with China – way beyond a mere photo op summit. Berlin is way more geoeconomically sophisticated than the vague “engagement and exigence” Paris  approach.

Merkel as well as Xi are fully aware of the imminent fragmentation of the world economy post-Lockdown. Yet as much as Beijing is ready to abandon the global circulation strategy from which it has handsomely profited for the past two decades, the emphasis is also on refining very close trade relations with Europe.

Ray McGovern has concisely detailed the current state of US-Russia relations. The heart of the whole matter, from Moscow’s point of view, was summarized by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, an extremely able diplomat:

“We don’t believe the US in its current shape is a counterpart that is reliable, so we have no confidence, no trust whatsoever. So our own calculations and conclusions are less related to what America is doing… We cherish our close and friendly relations with China. We do regard this as a comprehensive strategic partnership in different areas, and we intend to develop it further.”

It’s all here. Russia-China “comprehensive strategic partnership” steadily advancing. Including “Power of Siberia” Pipelineistan. Plus Pipelineistan linking two key NATO allies. Sanctions? What sanctions?

asiatimes.com

If by “representation” Trump means insulting a host nation exceedingly well on behalf of the president, then, yes, Grenell has been outstanding in his role up to now as American ambassador to Germany.

Within hours of his appointment as US envoy in Berlin back in May 2018, Grenell riled German politicians and businessman by issuing a high-handed ultimatum that the country should “immediately” halt all commercial dealings with Iran. In delivering that undiplomatic message, Grenell was loyally relaying his master’s voice from the White House and the president’s death-wish for the Iran nuclear accord.

During his two-year tenure in Berlin, Grenell has alienated so many German politicians from his outspoken acerbic manner that Chancellor Angela Merkel and other senior government officials have reportedly refused to meet him. He has been accused of interfering in German internal affairs and acting like a viceroy in some colonial outpost.

It would seem rather surprising therefore that a mouthy maverick who has also worked as a Fox News pundit is now being given the top US intelligence portfolio. First, there is the supposed confidential sensitivity required for the post. Secondly, Grenell has zero experience in intelligence work.

As acting Director of Intelligence, Grenell will oversee all 17 agencies that make up the US intelligence community, including the CIA, FBI and National Security Agency. It will be his responsibility to provide the Daily Presidential Briefs (DPBs) to Trump on national and international security concerns.

That new task seems extra challenging given that Grenell is reportedly keeping his post as ambassador to Germany during the three-month period while he is serving as acting DNI.

A permanent post as DNI has not been filled since Dan Coats stood down last August due to policy differences with Trump regarding North Korea, Russia and Iran. Grenell comes in to replace Joseph Maguire who was up to now serving as acting DNI. By definition, the acting position is a limited, temporary one until the post is made permanent.

It is unlikely Grenell is being groomed for the permanent position as DNI because the full-time appointment, unlike the present acting capacity, would have to be vetted by the Senate. Already, there is a much umbrage among senators, including Republicans, over what is being seen as Trump politicizing the intelligence post by giving the top job to someone conspicuously lacking in qualifications. The latest appointment by Trump underlines growing unease that the president is increasingly ruling by patronage.

Since its creation in 2004, the DNI has always been recruited from senior intelligence or military professionals. Grenell is seen as a Trump loyalist who is being rewarded by his boss in the White House for no other reason than being a loyalist, or less politely, a Yes Man.

On one hand, ironically, this may be a good thing. The fixture shows Trump has little time for “professional intelligence”. Not having spooks from the Deep State whispering into Trump’s ear keeps their machinations at bay. Grenell is hardly a Deep State cipher. He is more a Trump clone. His controversial remarks as ambassador in Berlin are seen as self-serving attempts to ingratiate himself with Trump.

On the other hand, being a Trump toady will reinforce the president’s ignorant and outré prejudices on international matters. As we have seen from his admonishment to German businesses over the nuclear deal, Grenell is a hawk when it comes to policy on Iran. His counsel to Trump on that score will play to Trump’s impetuous instincts. At a time of dangerous, volatile relations with Tehran, that kind of Yes Man in the Situation Room is undesirable.

In regard to Russia, Grenell has also shown hawkish stripes. Last year, he threatened German businesses with sanctions over the Nord Stream-2 gas project. Again, his intervention was seen as breaking the conventional rules for diplomats and displaying contempt for his German hosts. No doubt the high-handed warning over Nord Stream-2 was, again, in part motivated by Grenell’s ambition to please Trump’s hardline position.

The same can be said for his keenness for hectoring Germany and other European states to increase spending commitments to the NATO alliance. Trump has made that complaint a signature of his presidency. Grenell has loyally acted as Trump’s ventriloquist doll when it comes to gouging Europe for subventions to the American military-industrial complex via NATO budgets.

Several US intelligence officials have expressed disgust at Grenell’s appointment. Some have described the new DNI as “frightening” given his dearth of qualifications.

Frankly, one can hardly get more frightening and dangerous than the supposed professionals who have previously headed up the US intelligence community. After all, it was former DNI James Clapper who was instrumental in creating the Russia collusion hoax which so damaged bilateral relations between Washington and Moscow.

Having an openly gay, showboating part-time ambassador as DNI for three months can hardly get much worse.

The German government reportedly told the project companies to “ignore” the missives dispatched by Ambassador Richard Grenell.

Nord Stream 2 is the 1,222-kilometer pipeline being laid in the Baltic seabed which will greatly increase delivery of natural gas from Russia to Germany. It will double Germany’s import of Russian gas when complete. But the Trump administration has repeatedly voiced its objection to the project, claiming that it will give Moscow undue political leverage over Europe. Trump has warned of sanctions on participating companies, which include German and Austrian firms.

The flagrant ulterior agenda is seen as the US trying to undermine German-Russian energy trade, for the purpose of selling more expensive American liquefied natural gas to Europe. So much for American free-market capitalism!

Grenell’s letters to the German firms – received at the weekend – are viewed as an unprecedented threat to the nation’s conduct of private business. The US embassy denied it was a threat, saying the letters were merely stating Washington’s policy of imposing sanctions.

It is but the latest furore involving the maverick envoy who has been accused in the past of violating diplomatic protocol by meddling in Germany’s domestic affairs. German media have previously blasted Grenell for seeking “regime change” in Berlin because of his open support for the anti-immigration party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).

When Grenell took up his diplomatic post in Berlin last May, he immediately provoked a political firestorm when he tweeted that German companies doing business with Iran “should wind down operations” or face punitive American sanctions. That was at the time President Trump pulled out of the international nuclear accord with Iran. “Never tell the host country what to do, if you want to stay out of trouble,” snapped Wolfgang Ischinger, Germany’s former ambassador to Washington.

Only a few weeks after that dubious debut, Grenell gave an interview to the pro-Trump Breibart News outlet, boasting that he wanted to “empower other conservatives throughout Europe”. That was taken as an endorsement of the AfD in Germany, which has emerged as a serious challenger to the political establishment in Berlin.

Martin Schulz, the former leader of the Social Democratic Party, was among several political figures who then demanded Grenell’s dismissal. “What this man is doing is unheard of in international diplomacy… he’s behaving like a colonial officer of the far-right,” said Schulz. He added a fair point by noting: “If a German ambassador were to say in Washington that he was there to boost the Democrats, he would have been kicked out immediately.”

Grenell’s high-profile media interventions concerning German politics and business do appear to constitute a brazen breach of the 1964 Vienna Convention which stipulates that diplomats must remain neutral on matters of policy concerning host nations. Officially, an ambassador’s role is to lobby discreetly on behalf of his government, and to always adopt a low-profile.

Of course, this would not be the first time that US embassies and envoys have violated the Vienna Convention in host countries. Washington habitually uses these outposts for fomenting regime change.

Richard Grenell, however, has openly flouted these norms and acted as an unabashed mouthpiece for Trump, echoing the president’s contempt for the German government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The upshot, according to Der Spiegel, is that Grenell has become politically isolated in Berlin. Merkel “keeps him at a distance” and most politicians, except for the AfD, have shunned his contact.

After the latest controversy of writing warning letters to German companies, it may be the final straw for Berlin’s tolerance.

Already, the German media have been commenting on how the “trans-Atlantic partnership” is finished under Trump.

Business newspaper Handelsblatt commented previously: “Nothing in trans-Atlantic relations is normal any longer… Berlin has for too long clung to the illusion of trans-Atlantic normalcy… the era of close ties is now over”.

Moreover, there are increasing calls among German politicians and media for a “strategically autonomous Germany and Europe” unfettered by Washington’s policies.

Such a development is long overdue and its necessity long predates Trump. Since the end of the Second World War, Germany has resembled an occupied country for American military power and a subordinate to Washington’s political objectives. The primary objective has always been to prevent Germany from developing a natural partnership with Moscow, previously with the former Soviet Union, and subsequently the Russian Federation.

The absolute disregard for German sovereignty was perhaps best demonstrated not by the Trump administration, but during the presidency of Barack Obama when it emerged that American intelligence agencies were tapping the personal phone calls of Chancellor Merkel. If that’s not colonial arrogance, then what is?

Yet the German political and media establishment barely protested over that infringement by Washington on the country’s sovereignty and its leader.

What Trump and his cipher-envoy in Berlin have done is take the arrogance to an unbearably overt level. Trump has been kicking Germany for alleged “unfair trading practices”, denigrating Merkel over her refugee policy, browbeating Berlin to double its spend on NATO military budget, and lambasting German businesses for not complying with Washington’s hostile foreign policy towards Iran and Russia.

Trump in his boorish style is merely laying bare the long-presumed US hegemony over Germany. And it’s not a pretty sight. Berlin is being shamed into having to be seen to stand up to this American bullying.

The absurdity is that the US and its NATO acolytes have been foaming at the mouth for the last two years about alleged and unproven Russian interference in domestic politics of Western states. Whenever the glaring reality is it’s the Americans who are driving horses and coaches of interference through their supposed allies, who are evidently vassals.