Unlike “international terrorism” or “man-made global warming” which are purely human-made concoctions driven by political agendas, the threat of asteroid collisions with the earth is very real, and provides a very serious basis for international cooperation on the common aims and in the interest of humankind.

Bridenstine opened his speech by saying “We have to make sure that people understand that this is not about Hollywood. It’s not about movies. This is about ultimately protecting the only planet we know right now to host life, and that is the planet Earth.” After announcing the launch of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), Bridenstine said “we know for a fact that the dinosaurs did not have a space program… but we do, and we need to use it.”

As these words were being spoken NASA had announced that asteroid 99942 Apophis (named after the Egyptian god of chaos) would come within 19 000 miles of the earth on April 13, 2029- which is closer than some satellites. The head of NASA’s presence at this forum was especially important since the White House had recently created a “National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan” which commissioned a simulation of Apophis colliding with the Earth with devastating results.

Currently only 8000 of the estimated local asteroids (which are 140 meters or larger) have been identified and nothing is even closely in place to change their trajectories any time soon. Even if a collision were to occur in several years’ time, humanity’s technologies and priorities are dismally far from preventing such a collision. Just to put things in perspective, Bridenstine reminded his audience that in February 2013, a meteor measuring only 20 meters in diameter and travelling at 40 000 mph exploded over Chelyabinsk Russia sending a shockwave that destroyed property and injured over 1600 civilians. The energy in that blast was the equivalent of 30 Hiroshimas. This incident caught the world off guard, since everyone’s eyes were pointed at the other side of the earth where a much larger asteroid came within 17 000 miles but missed that same day.

The Potential Russian-USA Alliance for a New Paradigm

Bridenstine, who has been a long-time advocate of US-Russia-China collaboration on science, described his experience in Russia at that time saying “when I was over in Russia, the head of Roscosmos Dimitri Rogozin said that was high on his agenda. As you can imagine with Chelyabinsk and Tunguska, Russia has been significantly impacted by these events, so they have keen awareness and intensity on this that I think is important.”

In 2011 Rogozin made headlines by calling for a policy which he termed “The Strategic Defense of the Earth (SDE)”. As the name implies, the SDE was a revival of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) which President Reagan had first made to the Russians in 1983 mediated by the fascinating figure of Lyndon LaRouche. Unlike George Bush Sr’s unilateral version of the SDI later, this first version was based upon joint US-Russia collaboration of a ground and space-based system of plasma-based advanced laser technologies which would have made nuclear war strategically impossible. While the Russians rejected the offer then, Rogozin’s reactivation of the idea three decades later was a stroke of poetic irony.

Rogozin’s new design called not only for international collaboration around an anti-nuclear war policy, but additionally included asteroid defense. Rogozin was very clear in 2011 that this policy would re-channel the trillions of dollars of military hardware being built up by the anti-ballistic missile shield around Russia (and China) into a function which protects rather than destroys life. Little known in the west, Russia Today reported in October 2011 that the program focuses on “fighting threats coming from space rather than just missiles. … It would be an integration of anti-aircraft, missile, and space defenses. The system would be targeted against possible threats to Earth coming from space, including asteroids, comet fragments, and other alien bodies… The system should be capable of both monitoring space and destroying any dangerous objects as they approach our planet.”

Today both Rogozin and Bridenstine are two leading figures behind Russian and American plans for lunar and mars colonization which alongside China’s pioneering commitment for space exploration offer one of the best gateways out of the “closed system” trap of British geopolitics. America currently has a commitment for a permanent lunar colony by 2024 as a platform for lunar mining and Mars development. Russia’s vision is nearly identical with plans for the first manned mission between 2025-2034 and a permanent colony established by 2040. The European Space Agency has plans for a manned moon colony by 2030 and China has announced its first manned mission by the same period. All four agencies have expressed a serious interest for asteroid defense.

Already, through Bridenstine’s leadership NASA has managed to crack the federal ban on US-China space cooperation imposed under the Obama presidency when NASA shared data with China during the Chang’e-4 landing on the far side of the moon on January 3, 2019. Leadership among Russia, China and American space agencies have made it clear that the Lunar-Mars development programs are heavily driven by opportunities for space mining (including the abundance of Helium-3 deposits on the moon which are unavailable on earth). Anyone serious about fusion technology knows that this isotope which has accumulated for billions of years on the Moon due to its lack of a magnetic field is the best source of fuel for fusion as the next phase in human development.

Of course this positive future can only occur on the condition that the NATO-driven paradigm of closed system geopolitics (aka: the management of diminishing returns by a technocratic elite) is overturned and replaced by a system of “win-win cooperation” more in harmony with the true nature of humanity. This fight between two paradigms must be kept in mind when reviewing such anomalies as the positive 1.5 hour conversation between President Putin and Trump on May 3^rd or the latter’s call to transfer the billions of dollars of Russia-China-US military spending into spending on “things that are more productive towards long term peace.”

Regardless of what we may wish to believe, humanity exists in a universe that demands we pay attention to its behavior. Galactically driven catastrophes have led to 5 mass extinctions since the Cambrian period and as Bridenstine noted above, we are the first species which has exhibited the potential capability to circumvent another one from occurring. The question remains: Shall we continue to tolerate being manipulated by an oligarchical system of geopolitics under sociopathic technocrats who demand depopulation under a fixed system of diminishing returns (entropy) or shall we recognize our higher destiny as a species of creative reason and unbounded powers of self-perfectibility?

New US sanctions punishing Russia for its actions in Ukraine are to be announced on Friday, April 25. The next round is likely to target influential people or companies in sectors such as energy, engineering and financial services, as spelled out in an executive order US President Obama issued last month.

The US diplomacy is also working behind the scenes. According to Russian Kommersant daily, the United States unsuccessfully tries to make China join the sanctions against Russia. The White House press-service refused to comment but it did not negate the report. It’s a well-known fact President Obama discussed the possibility of China joining the West on March 24 while meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the G7 summit in the Hague. Visiting China on April 15 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov thanked China for its «unbiased position on Ukraine» and added that Beijing-Moscow ties had reached an «unprecedented height». The visit of Russian President Putin to China is expected on May 20…

China has made known its intention to invest in large-scale ventures in Crimea after the region was reunited with Russia. The plans include two major Crimean projects: the «Power of Siberia» gas pipeline and a 25 meter deep Crimean deep water port.

The gas pipeline as a mega-project that will pump 60 billion cubic meters of gas annually from the Kovykta and Tchayandinskoe gas fields to Russia’s Far East, where a branch line will deliver 38 billion cubic meters a year to China. Russia's top natural gas producer Gazprom plans to start supplying China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year – around a quarter of Russia's exports to Europe. Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, told the EUobserver on April 16 that Gazprom and China’s CNPC have a «legally binding» agreement from 2013 and that exploitation of the Tchayandinskoe field should start in 2019. «The project is aimed primarily at delivery of gas to Russian regions and at developing industry in the Russian Far East. The export of gas is considered in this context as a factor which improves (significantly, one should admit) the economics of the project, but not as a prerequisite for its realization», he noted.

On April 14 Russian deputy premier, Arkady Dvorkovich, fresh from talks with Chinese counterparts, confirmed Russia and China are to wrap up talks on gas supplies. According to him, China is interested in alternative energy projects in Crimea. «The gas talks are wrapping up. There is a common intention to complete this work before the Russian President's visit to China in May this year», Interfax news agency quoted Dvorkovich. He added that Russia and China plan to boost cooperation in oil and oil products, as well as in coal and power supplies. According to him, Russia's top oil company Rosneft aims to triple oil supplies to China from the more than 300,000 barrels per day it sent last year. «The key decisions have been taken, but both the Chinese partners and we have a desire to boost cooperation». 

Russia and China will continue with plans for Chinese firms to build a 25 meter deep port in Crimea as part of a new transport corridor from Asia to Europe called «The Economic Belt of the Great Silk Route». Chinese builders will dig an enormous trench near the Crimean town of Frunze and fill it with sea water by demolishing a dam. The $3bn first phase would involve the construction of a deepwater port and reconstruct the sea port of Sevastopol, according to materials provided by Beijing Interoceanic Canal Investment Management Company. A second, $7bn phase would include an airport, LNG terminal and shipyard. China will abandon a planned $5 billion solar power plant in Nevada and invest the money in Crimea, instead.

Besides, there are plans to lease about 10,000 hectares of agricultural land in Crimea.

On April 11 Deputy Head of Roscosmos Sergey Saveliev said in a video conference devoted to Astronautics Day that Russia and China are coordinating on major future research projects in space, «Russian-Chinese cooperation is already happening. Last year we agreed to discuss expanding it, to work on one, two, or three large-scale research projects, and now we are looking at proposals and waiting for updates from both sides», he said. Saveliev suggested the partnership arrangement should be the same as on the ExoMars program with Europe. «We should divide the responsibilities, and each side would finance the part that it is developing. And the results will be used without restrictions by both sides», Saveliev concluded. On April 3 US NASA announced the suspension of cooperation with Russia in connection with the situation in Ukraine, with the exception of the International Space Station. Many NASA officials expressed displeasure with the decision, noting that scientific cooperation should not be politicized.

On April 18, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin took part in a meeting of co-chairs of Russian-Chinese committee for preparation of regular meetings between the countries’ prime ministers, which took place in Vladivostok. He told reporters Russia and China see prospects of cooperation related to satellite navigation systems GLONASS and BeiDou in regional support and development of chipsets. Russia and China have advanced quite far in a project of creating a joint wide-bodied, long-haul airplane, Dmitry Rogozin said. Detailed design variants of the project and plans to set up a joint venture were presented at the event. Rogozin noted that this was a strategic project for Russia. «Today a detailed design of the project was submitted. There are some variants of it», the Deputy Premier said, adding that «A working project of a joint venture was produced». In the view of Rogozin, creation of this airliner would allow bringing domestic aircraft-building industry to a new qualitative level. «If the project is implemented, I do not doubt that this will be so, but in general this may open up access for us to production of a series of airplanes of different classes, but on a basis of modularity», Rogozin added. He noted that the both partners had great prospects for joining together in implementation of air-space industry projects, such as joint production of heavy cargo helicopter. 

* * *

The West seems to be hurting itself with sanctions against Russia, while the Russia-China multilateral ties get a mighty impetus for the benefit of the both nations. With a host of joint projects to be implemented, the bilateral cooperation is in full swing. There is nothing the US and its Western allies can do about it. 

Being a US strategic ally and having a special agreement on missile defense technology cooperation, Japan’s will provide full access to whatever it comes up with to the United States. It means an advent of a new killing component for Russian intercontinental strategic ballistic missiles (ICBM) is to be expected pretty soon. Now the issue of US (and allies) – Russia divergence on the issue is becoming much more complicated than it has been until now…

New Weapon systems

In April this year North Korea launched what was claimed to be a ballistic missile. Japan’s ground radars and Aegis destroyers, backed by U.S. early-warning surveillance satellite, failed to track it. The anxiety was that the Japan based tracking capabilities were insufficient. The real reason was the object never went high enough to be detected. Still in Tokyo it brought to mind the issue of the ability to detect low-altitude objects as well as missile launches at their early phase. The Japanese government response was embarking on an expensive program to develop unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with ultrasensitive infrared sensors to track ballistic (and possibly cruise) missiles as well as other low-altitude objects. Not much is known as yet; actually short reports have appeared in media at the beginning of November 2012. According to mostly anonymous Japanese sources, a prototype of the UAV, which would be able to operate at an altitude of about 13,500 meters, will be unveiled by the next fiscal year and enter service in 2020. Let me note that’s exactly the time the NATO announced Phased Adaptive Approach envisages the Aegis full intercontinental capability to be achieved in practice. The thing of prime importance is that the system is to detect launches earlier than the existing ground-based radars are capable of. The new weapon system would give Japan an ability to intercept ballistic missiles at an earlier stage, or at least add to the series of points in the «kill chain» at which a ballistic missile can be shot down. It remains to be seen whether the Japanese drone will have enough endurance and be equipped with air-to-air missiles, such as, for instance, a modernized AIM-120 AMRAAM with a second-stage liquid propulsion system to operate as an air-launched missile interceptor and detecting the movement of low-altitude objects over waters near Japan. As pilots are not needed to operate the drones, the vehicles are expected to be able to patrol the skies for 22 hours continuously. The Japanese ministry plans to have a design for a prototype UAV ready by next fiscal year. Once completed, it will undergo strength and other tests. The UAVs will be able to track missiles after they are launched, something that is difficult for satellites. Even if a missile stalls after launch, the UAVs will be able to detect it. The ministry expects the UAVs to serve other purposes too. These include marine surveillance, such as monitoring the Chinese Navy's movements in the East China Sea, and information-gathering activities in areas contaminated with radioactive substances from Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.

One doesn’t have to be a military expert to know that targeting an object during its boost has a lot of advantages. The missile doesn’t maneuver and presents a very high infrared signature. It is slower going up than during the re-entry phase and that makes kinetic interception easier to achieve. That’s one of the reasons for Russia’s apprehensions over the NATO European missile defense. Besides, an airborne surveillance aircraft situated in the vicinity of the launch site would obviate the time and high-energy requirements of mid-course interceptors used on current ground or sea based interceptors. It makes interception cheaper and faster. A very important thing is that the system will destroy a ballistic missile during that phase means that its destruction will occur on enemy territory rather than anywhere else, for instance Japan’s or the US skies. 

The US has projects of its own. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has been testing «sensor pods» placed on unmanned aircraft like General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper. MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly has said that test-tracking of missile launches at a range of more than 600 miles (965 km) has been successful. The range of successful intercept options will be dependent on upgrading the small and lightweight missiles carried by UAVs, as significant air speeds are required to intercept ballistic missiles, especially at longer distances. The technological hurdles in identifying and tracking missile launches would be significantly reduced if «overhead» satellites are involved. A new concept is under consideration offering to kill theater ballistic missiles soon after launch when they are slow and bright targets. No doubt it just starts with theater range to achieve intercontinental capability. Moreover, missile designers are being encouraged to work on more powerful boosters and repackage them as missiles that are small and light enough to be carried internally. They have to be fast enough – at least 5 km. (3 mi.) per second, to engage heavy ballistic missiles during boost and ascent at ranges of 350 miles (or 563 kilometers) or more. That’s exactly the velocity to give it a partial ICBM kill capability. The greater the range, the faster and heavier the interceptor has to be. The experts say sensors can see a missile launch plume at a range of about 350 miles from 65,000 ft. (19800 meters) altitude. 

By the end of this October the US defense company Boeing conducted a first successful test of a drone called the Counter-electronics High-powered Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) that can emit a powerful burst of microwaves and fry every piece of electronics in its path — from personal computers and cameras to high-tech hospital equipment and flight control computers. CHAMP approached its first target and fired a burst of High Power Microwaves at a two story building built on the test range. Inside rows of personal computers and electrical systems were turned on to gauge the effects of the powerful radio waves. CHAMP had successfully knocked out the computer and electrical systems in the target building. Even the television cameras set up to record the test were knocked off line without collateral damage. «This technology marks a new era in modern-day warfare», said Keith Coleman, CHAMP program manager for Boeing Phantom Works. «In the near future, this technology may be used to render an enemy's electronic and data systems useless even before the first troops or aircraft arrive». These drones are being touted as non-lethal weapons, aimed at taking out an enemy's «electrical systems», like say targeting systems or maybe their intelligence databases. He never said the test showed the capability to knock off ICBM sites command and control systems. Getting unnoticed to the intercontinental missile site and bring out of order it control system is a dream of military planners. Besides the missiles, closing databases of information could lead to many more deaths in the long term in case it destroys a water management system or a computer-controlled dam. 

The killing of a ballistic missile scored during its launch phase is almost a tall order given its location in enemy territory; it’s all the more formidable in case enemy’s airspace is covered by strong defense systems. However, low-signature unmanned aerial vehicles can penetrate enemy territory undetected and to hover longer near a launch site than conventional aircraft, greatly increasing the chances of intercept. 

Russia

Right after the US elections outcome became known President Putin sent Mr. Obama congratulations expressing the hope that the bilateral relations would improve and inviting the newly – elected President to visit Russia next year. As is widely known the controversy over the planned missile shield has strained the relations between the U.S. and Russia. Moscow has rejected Washington's assurances that the shield is intended to fend off potential missile threats from Iran and voiced concerns that the system could threaten Russia's nuclear deterrent. In March, Obama, unaware that he was speaking on an open microphone, told Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia's president, that he would have more flexibility on the issue after the November election. On November 8, right after the Mr. Obama’s re-election, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin appeared to be trying to remind Obama of his promise an international conference in Moscow. He said that Moscow hoped the U.S. president would listen to Russia's concerns about the U.S.- led NATO missile defense for Europe. Talking to RIA-Novosti on November 12, he said, «Russia will «react in the sharpest manner» to any US ships equipped with the Aegis combat system attempting to sail by its shores». As to Rogozin, the US missile defense is destabilizing the Russia – US relations right now. Commenting on the Obama’s victory, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow was still keen to work with NATO countries if circumstances allowed, however, it would continue pushing for firm guarantees from Washington. Russia-US arms reduction talks would not go on until the two sides solve the thorny issue of missile defense. The issue includes components of the US-led missile defense shield in Europe and other parts, Ryabkov added. Russia expected legally binding guarantees that the missile defense system was not directed at Russia, and could not accept verbal assurance as an alternative. Moscow's plan to reduce nuclear stockpiles depends on all relevant factors affecting its «strategic stability», including some Western partners' plans to deploy the missile defense program in Europe, he said. 

It remains to be seen how the technology created by the US, Japan and other American allies participating in the missile shield project will affect the process. But there is no doubt the implementation of new killing elements into the missile defense will hardly improve the bilateral relations and will, no doubt, provoke retaliatory measures on the part of Russia. 

Foto: valdaiclub.com