How many of us can remember the names of the Presidents of Italy or Germany? This is because in these republics, it is the prime minister who wields the real power, with the President largely playing a symbolic role as a grey-haired sage who views the proceedings at a great distance.

This is how many Lebanese would like to think of their own aging President Michel Aoun, who in his mid-eighties (it’s unclear exactly how old he is) is holding Lebanon to ransom over a new cabinet of ministers. Aoun, a Hezbollah servant who once fled Lebanon at the end of the civil war when Syrian troops approached Beirut, has taken the terms of his office too literally in believing that the President has the overall say who makes up the cabinet.

It is for this reason why we will see Lebanon fall into an abyss of rampant crime and poverty not seen since the civil war, following the recent resignation of Saad Hariri, who stepped in as Prime Minister nine months ago, following the Beirut bomb and the appointment of a stooge Sunni PM whose name has been changed to sound like “diabolical” by most Lebanese, such was the magnitude of his uselessness.

But even in Lebanon, being useless can be quite useful.

Hariri, hardly a dynamic player himselft, was Saudi Arabia’s last hope in playing a role in somehow compromising some of Iran’s power it wields through keeping Aoun and his son-in-law, Bassil, a hapless buffoon who never had a real job until he was given the post of foreign minister on a plate without even holding a parliamentary seat, in office. Their plan is probably to present Bassil as a presidential candidate in next year’s elections which will be a major juncture for Lebanon and the country’s future. Some even go as far as to argue that the present set up of a Christian Maronite President, a Sunni PM and a Shia parliamentary speaker could even be scrapped.

For Aoun to refuse to accept that it is for Hariri as PM to choose the lion’s share of cabinet ministers was a move, which might prove to have cataclysmic consequences. For Hariri to not accept the stand-off and resign was predictable, given that he will no doubt be having his own ideas about how to derail even the process of being replaced. It is the oldest after dinner joke in Beirut shared by almost everyone that Hariri believes he is indispensable. A lot of that collateral stemmed from the special relationship his father had with the older generation of Saudi royals who treated the Lebanese firebrand leader as one of their own.

But with now King Salman’s health a question in Saudi Arabia, with many speculating that he may well step down to give the throne to Mohamed bin Salman (MbS), how long can this old record keep getting played?

Lebanon needs fresh flows of outside money to pull itself out of the cesspit which the country has become through decades of being looted by the same cronies who are in office today. The only way that money can come in is with cast iron guarantees signed by a credible new government which is not being hijacked by Iran, so as to let Hezbollah keep hundreds of thousands of sophisticated rockets buried in secret bunkers all over the country, facing Israel, naturally. This old set up of “corruption sharing” which now even the most naive Lebanese citizen knows was all about a farce of scaring people into supporting their militia leaders to apparently keep the peace has also had its day.

Hariri’s resignation should neither shock us or worry us. It is simply another move in the same game which has been played out since the early 90s. Sabotage. The difference today is that Lebanon is reported to be literally a matter of days away from hospital generators being shut down as the government neither has the will, nor the ability, to pay for fuel via the central bank – whose chief is so mired in corruption and embezzlement scandals that no one on the country can tell you if the central bank has anything left of the 40bn dollars it was once believed to have before the entire crisis imploded in 2019. Today, Lebanon’s currency in practical terms is worth not even ten percent of its original value as the country is gripped by new fuel shortages and the relentless hyperinflation on essentials, foods and drugs.

Soon, when the old and weak are dying in hospitals which don’t even have electric light and crime levels sore, those who are linked to Hariri will note that in fact, in the shorter term, it was Aoun and his son-in-law who came out of this recent spat as victors – given that Hariri’s ace card (he can talk to Hezbollah) was played but came to nothing. Even the Lebanese Shiite militia, which acts often as a state within a state inside Lebanon, didn’t want to face a stand-off with a President who is so old and showing signs of senility, over his role. Here we see for the first time real power of this duo which explains why they behave sometimes like they are untouchable. Is Hezbollah looking to Aoun to ‘hand down’ the presidency to Bassil, who is hardly on good terms with the Lebanese group? If this is the case, then the Saudis have got their work cut out if they are relying on the often repeated Hariri ruse of resigning just to create a political vacuum. Surely the capricious young Saudi Prince, who once had Hariri beaten up during a kidnapping ordeal which made international headlines in 2017, must have reached the end of his patience?

Into its third week and the stand-off between protestors and the elite in Lebanon is still holding strong as thousands of Lebanese are calling for a radical overhaul of a system which collapsed under its own weight of corrupt warlords who have looted the state coffers for decades

But do they know what they want? And how relevant is Hariri’s resignation?

Hariri resigning could mean a new anti-corruption agenda installing itself within the political institutions – whether he comes back as PM with his own cabinet hand-picked, or is dispatched to the darkness of opposition.

Or it could mean just a rearrangement of the window dressing to keep the old guard in place.

The call from protestors to install a new government cabinet of technocrats who are not part of the political elite will have to be heeded; the question is whether it will be done properly or disingenuously. Your technocrats or mine?

But his resignation was fundamentally based on a clash of personalities. And its personalities which play a huge role in Lebanon, which operated under a sectarian power sharing system for decades – one which many Lebanese claim they are tired of, but which they are still very much attached to, despite the protests, the chanting and even the partying.

The problem Lebanon has is that while many want change, few, if any, are able to provide any lucid vision of what that might entail.

Consequently, this places even more emphasis on political figures. It’s unlikely that a new European style of democratic apparatus will permeate the Lebanese government. What is more likely is that the old system will stay in place, but a genuine crackdown on corruption – which is seen to work – will be forced to take root.

The fundamental difference of opinion is thus. Hariri plus two other groups (socialist Druze and ultra Christian conservative ‘Lebanese Forces’) all believe this should be done through installing an entirely new cabinet of technocrats, based on their individual merit. The opposition to that plan, from Aoun and Hezbollah, is that this can be done from within the existing political framework, with less fuss.

Hezbollah is keen not to let the country descend into chaos but also invested heavily in the Aoun-Hariri power sharing model which kicked off on October 31^st 2016. In short, it fears that the Hariri plan would ultimately lead to an entirely new breed of MPs which would erode its support base.

Indeed, the baying crowds need to see an entirely new approach to governance and responsibility of office. For the moment, this has put a spotlight on key figures as their resignation is seen to be a swift and clean antidote to decades of embezzlement and greed. The house speaker, for example, Nabih Berri, has been in the job since 1992 and so entire generations of Lebanese know no other. But even his own supporters are tired of his rapacious embezzlement of state funds and running the south of Lebanon almost like a mafia chief, according to a leaked US cable. Aoun himself, also profited from the ‘wasta’ (kinship)corruption system, and is from a different age which no Lebanese understands or align themselves to. His background is military and he is hated for running the country along the same lines as any clueless dictator, taking his lead from Hezbollah and showing a vociferous disdain for anything whiffing of democratic reform.

And how can you trust a man who lies about his age, to have the best interests of the country at heart, let alone the economy?

Hariri’s original proposals, which were accepted, fall short of the mark on saving the economy also. One has to question how serious he was about banking transparency of the elite or a new anti corruption agency, when, in fact, he agreed at least to close down the previous one – a farcical set up of a minister and a fax machine in downtown Beirut run by an Aoun supporting minister who is considered part of the elite.

What Hariri does see though is the removal from office of key figures which are universally loathed for their personal aggrandizement – both financially and politically – and his resignation was based on this. It is said in Beirut that he visited Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, on the day of his resignation where he demanded that the president’s son in law, Gebran Bassil, be removed from his post as foreign minister.

Bassil is despised by protestors and is seen as a epitome of greed and graft  – who was actually made a minister by his father in law, President Michel Aoun – through the corrupt political system, based on tribalism and kinship.  But worse, the odious Bassil – recently reported in Lebanon for taking boxes of cash from Iran, disguised as Red Cross aid parcels – is being groomed by Hezbollah to inherit the presidency from Aoun.

He’s actually seen as Assad’s man in Beirut.

For many Lebanese, even those not interested in confessional politics, this is what is at stake. Aoun’s presidency, tainted by journalists and protestors being beaten up and jailed and corruption reaching new levels, has made Lebanon more or less a tin pot African dictatorship, complete with succession of heirs, no power nor water, a garbage crisis, a local currency under threat of being devalued and a new level of lawlessness taking root.

Even Aoun’s own daughters are enraged by Bassil becoming President and want him kicked out, believing their father’s legacy had been stained. And Bassil also became the focal point of particularly vitriolic chants from the protestors.

And so, for Hariri, it was clear that a quick and decisive way to quell the protestors’ anger, would be to do some culling. The removal of Bassil is key, he believes, to moving forward.

Hezbollah has resisted this though as indeed has Aoun as Bassil represented a new, younger face to represent Iran’s interests in a country where there aren’t too many candidates for such a job.

And getting Berri to step down as House Speaker will also be difficult. The sheer pusillanimity of these characters is what is fundamentally wrecking the Lebanese economy as is their idea that it is the poor who should pay for their call-centre governance with a whatsap tax, which is what ignited the protests on October 17.

A caretaker government with Hariri still acting as PM is the most likely of scenarios in the short term, while Hezbollah, Aoun, Berri and Bassil all try and manipulate MPs to vote for the status quo with a new Sunni PM, possibly Raya al-Hassan, the current minister of interior who is from Tripoli and has no stained record of graft. If they however go for a Hariri come back, then this will be seen as a survival ticket for themselves – as it will mean Bassil leaving the cabinet and the protestors’ fevered demands for early parliamentary elections possibly cooling. To re-elect Hariri, which is not at all a far-fetched scenario – will almost be the starter’s pistol on a revolution, one which will be keenly watched both by wobbly Gulf Arab rulers in the region and even as far as Algeria and Morocco. The problem is there is not the time for such previous stand offs which have left Lebanon without a government. There simply isn’t time left to experiment further with the Hezbollah-Aoun ruse.

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In November 2017, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) ordered the arrest and detention at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton Hotel of over 200 members of the Saudi royal family, including eleven rival princes, as well as government ministers and influential businessmen. That came after an October 2017 meeting in Riyadh between MBS and Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, conclave that lasted well into the early morning hours. At the meeting, Kushner is said to have turned over to MBS a list of the names of the Crown Prince’s opponents: leading figures of the Saudi royal house, government, and major businesses. The list may have also contained the name “Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi.”

The list of Saudi names was, reportedly, compiled by Kushner from top secret special code word documents he had specifically requested from the National Security Agency (NSA) and Central Intelligence Agency. The documents were specifically requested by Kushner, not because he was an expert in communications intercepts, but because he likely had a control officer who told him what files to obtain. The Kushner family have longstanding ties to the Israeli Likud Party, as well as the Mossad intelligence service. The Mossad enjoys a close working relationship with the Saudi General Intelligence Directorate, which is now firmly committed to MBS after a previous purge of its upper ranks following MBS’s rise to the heir apparent position in the House of Saud.

Those on the list handed over to MBS by Kushner were all subjects of NSA and CIA communications intercepts of phone calls, video conferences, and emails. Kushner is said to have had a phone conversation with MBS a day before Khashoggi was murdered.

Reports from U.S. intelligence sources report that the NSA had intercepted high-level communications between the Saudi government in Riyadh and the Saudi consulate-general in Istanbul indicating that there was a plot afoot to either kidnap Khashoggi and fly him back to Riyadh or murder him on the spot. Kidnapping and detention is definitely part of MBS’s playbook as seen with his kidnapping and detention in Riyadh on November 3, 2017 of arriving Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. No sooner had Hariri’s plane touched down in Riyadh, was his cell phone confiscated by the Saudis and he was detained. Hariri was forced to resign in a forced statement read by him on a Saudi television network. MBS was hoping to replace Hariri with his older estranged brother, Bahaa Hariri, someone that MBS had in his pocket.

MBS had bragged to close advisers that he also had Jared Kushner “in his pocket.” Lebanese President Michel Aoun demanded Hariri’s immediate release by the Saudi regime and his return to Beirut. Just as Riyadh denied it had murdered Khashoggi, it refused to admit that it was holding Hariri against his will. MBS ordered Hariri flown to Abu Dhabi to meet with MBS’s on-and-off-again ally, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), the heir apparent to the presidency of the United Arab Emirates. At the age of 57, MBZ is not as brash as the young and impetuous MBS. This has been witnessed by MBZ’s willingness to work with Jordanian King Abdullah II to seek an accommodation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. MBS is reportedly furious with MBZ and Abdullah, the latter a member of the Hashemite family, who were ejected from their rule over Mecca and Medina by the British and Sauds, following World War I. Ever since the Hashemites’ loss of the Hejaz region of Arabia to the radical Wahhabist Sauds, there has been bad blood between Riyadh and Amman.

MBS is also upset over MBZ’s support for rival claimants to power in South Yemen. MBS is supporting the rump Yemeni government, much of it in exile in Saudi Arabia, against the Iranian-supported Houthi government ruling from Sana’a in north Yemen in a bloody and genocidal war being orchestrated by Riyadh, with the support of the Trump adminstration and the Israeli regime.

The UAE has been supporting the Southern Transition Council (STC), which strives for South Yemen’s reversion to an independent state, a status it enjoyed before a forced merger with north Yemen in 1990. Caught in the middle are forces loyal to Sheikh Abdullah bin Issa al Aafrar, the Sultan of the Mahra State, which was disestablished when South Yemen achieved independence in 1967. The Mahra Sultan, who is living in the neighboring Sultanate of Oman, under Sultan Qabus bin Said’s protection, is also in the gun sights of MBS, who does not want any competition for Saudi control of all of Yemen.

Oman is reportedly backing the Al-Mahra and Socotra People’s General Council, which is composed of the Mahra Sultan and Mahri tribal elders. This rival governing authority wants to be free of any control by the Saudi, Emirati, Houthi, and the pro-Saudi Yemen government. Through the offices of Oman’s mission to the United Nations, the General Council has been in direct contact with the UN Security Council. The STC also includes members of the tribes and royal families of other former states of the British colonial era Federation of Arab Emirates of the South and Protectorate of South Arabia. These include the Kathiri State, Sultanate of Lahej, the Qu’aiti State of Hadhramaut, and the Emirates of Dhala and Beihan.

MBS is known to be angling to select the successor to Qabus, who has no children and has been a thorn in Riyadh’s side. Under Qabus, Oman has been friendly to Iran and the Assad government in Syria, as well as Qatar, where the 36-year old Emir, Tamim bin Hamad, has infuriated MBS by maintaining relations with Iran. In 2013, Tamim’s father, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, formally abdicated the throne in favor of his son. However, it is well known that Hamad still pulls the strings in Doha. In 1995, Hamad deposed his father, Khalifa BIN Hamad al Thani, who was undergoing medical treatment in Geneva. In 1972, Khalifa ousted his cousin, Ahmad, while he was on a hunting trip in Iran. Ahmad settled in Dubai, where he married the daughter of the Emir of Dubai. MBS and MBZ are anxious to prop up a rival to the current Qatari emir from the ranks of potential claimants to the throne in Doha, including two rival al-Thani clan members who the Saudis have claimed have rightful claims to the Qatari throne – Abdulla bin Ali Al Thani and Sultan bin Suhaim Al Thani.

MBS, along with all the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, have instituted a punishing economic and diplomatic embargo on Qatar. There is some speculation in the Middle East that MBS is quietly backing to succeed Qabus, Taimur bin Assad, the 37-year old son of Qabus’s cousin, Said Assad bin Tariq. As the deputy prime minister for international cooperation, Said Assad bin Tariq was designated as the official heir to the ailing Qabus.

In this Arabian “Game of Thrones,” MBZ may have his own favorites among other claimants to the sultan’s throne in Muscat. These include Said Assad bin Tariq’s half-brothers, Haitham bin Tariq, currently the culture minister, and Shihab bin Tariq, a former commander of the Omani navy. MBZ is reportedly running a network of spies within the Omani royal court to influence the succession to Qabus. There is another, non-Arabian prince, who could also have a great deal of influence in the Omani royal succession. He is the Prince of Wales, Charles, the future King of England, who has been a longtime friend and confidante of Sultan Qabus.

Oman and Qatar have their own agents of influence within the royal families of the seven emirates that make up the UAE. In July, Sheikh Rashid bin Hamad al-Sharqi, the second-in-line for the throne in Fujairah, the UAE emirate that borders Oman, turned up in Qatar to ask for asylum. He said that MBZ’s government was using extortion to eke out transfers of large sums of cash by Emirati royal families to unknown parties around the world, including those in Ukraine, India, Morocco, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria. The UAE, along with the Saudis, are major financial supporters of jihadist elements around the world. Sheikh Rashid has also provided Qatari intelligence with details of discontent among the emirates of the dictatorial policies of MBZ in Abu Dhabi. The other emirs are also critical of the UAE’s involvement in the genocidal civil war in Yemen, one in which troops from Fujairah, Umm al Quwain, Ajman, Sharjah, and Ras al Khaimah, are used for cannon fodder, while those from the wealthier Abu Dhabi and Dubai avoid frontline combat.

Recently, the Saudis have pressured their puppet king in Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, to fire his uncle, Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. Prince Khalifa is the world’s longest-serving prime minister. However, he has apparently irritated MBS with his work to protect the rights of foreign workers, including those from the Philippines and south Asia, in Bahrain and the wider Gulf region.

MBS and Kushner are known to view Iran as the chief threat to peace in the Middle East. MBZ shares in their view of Iran, something that is, apparently, not shared by the emirates of the northern Gulf region, including Fujairah. From their actions, MBS and MBZ are, along with their Israeli and American allies, the major threat to peace in the region. The assassination of a journalist resident in the United States in a third country, Turkey, and the kidnapping and house arrest of a sitting prime minister of another nation is unprecedented behavior in the Middle East. The Saudis are only matched by Israel in their total disregard for international norms of behavior in the Middle Eastern region as they and their cohorts engage in their bloody “Game of Thrones.”

Photo: seraamedia.org

It was then reported that the buyer turned out to be none other than Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia with whom Macron is said to enjoy a close, personal rapport.

The 500-year-old renaissance portrait of Jesus Christ – entitled ‘Salvator Mundi’ (‘Savior of the World’) – will henceforth go on display in Abu Dhabi’s franchise of the Louvre, presumably on long-term loan from the Saudi monarchy.

The story here is one of the French presidency and the Saudi heir using culture and arts for “soft power” projection – or, less prosaically, as public relations to launder their international image. It also ties in with how Macron is disguising pernicious French meddling in Middle East affairs under the image of being a benign diplomatic broker.

The Louvre in Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates, is the only one anywhere in the world that is an official affiliate to the famous Paris museum of the same name. It opens after 10 years of construction, for which the UAE reportedly paid France over $500 million in order to be able to use the famous Louvre name.

France, the UAE and the closely aligned Saudi rulers stand to gain much international prestige, especially after the Saudi Crown Prince reportedly purchased the most expensive artwork in the world to date by the renaissance master Leonardo Da Vinci. Da Vinci’s other celebrated portrait, the Mona Lisa, is displayed in the Paris Louvre. A certain neat symmetry there.

However, beneath the veneer of classic art lies the grubby, sordid world of politics.

Last weekend, the French president hosted a conference in Paris entitled the International Support Group for Lebanon, whose chief guest was Lebanese premier Saad Hariri. Macron reportedly concluded the summit by saying it was “imperative for foreign powers not to interfere in Lebanese internal affairs”. The implication of that statement was fingering Iran as the culprit of interference through its association with Lebanese coalition government member Hezbollah.

The irony here is that if any country in the region has been guilty of brazenly interfering in Lebanese politics it is Saudi Arabia. Hariri tendered his resignation as prime minister on November 4 after he was summoned to Riyadh by the Saudi rulers who sponsor his Sunni Islam-affiliated political movement in Lebanon. In explaining his surprise resignation, Hariri dramatically and provocatively accused Iran and Hezbollah of plotting to assassinate him.

Hariri has since returned safely to Lebanon and has reversed his earlier resignation announcement. Both Iran and Hezbollah have rejected his claims of intended malice as ridiculous. It seems Hariri was trying to project a well-worn Saudi narrative to criminalize Iran and Hezbollah, whom the hardline Sunni (Wahhabi) Saudi rulers view as “Shia heretics” and regional nemesis – especially after recent military victory in Syria.

Evidently, Hariri is still doing the Saudi rulers’ bidding. Last week before the Paris summit, he told Paris Match in an interview that the Syrian government of Bashar al Assad – an ally of Iran and Hezbollah – wants him dead. He reiterated baseless accusations that Syria had been involved in the assassination of his father Rafic in 2005. The Paris summit a few days later then endorsed Hariri’s demand that Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, must “disassociate” from regional influence. France’s Macron publicly backed this demand.

That brings us to the art of deception. Saudi Arabia’s antagonism against Iran, Hezbollah and Syria is being finessed with French diplomatic sophistry. French President Macron and his foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian are subtly lending credence to Saudi attempts at demonizing Iran and Hezbollah, accusing both for regional instability – when in reality Riyadh and Paris are much more to blame.

Lebanon is only one such instance of Saudi meddling, which is being given a respectable cover by French diplomatic posturing. When Lebanon’s Christian President Michel Aoun and many Lebanese citizens were condemning Saudi rulers for “kidnapping” Hariri during his extraordinary two-week sojourn in Riyadh last month following his resignation, it was France’s Macron who deftly diverted attention from Saudi interference by extending a personal invite to Hariri to visit Paris along with his family. That invitation to Paris for Hariri on November 18 let the Saudis off the hook over claims that they were holding the Lebanese politician under duress.

Another instance of egregious Saudi-French meddling is Syria. The country has been ravaged by a nearly seven-year war that was largely sponsored covertly by Saudi Arabia, France and other NATO allies. That war has only been put to an end by the military intervention of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

In Yemen, the Saudi rulers have devastated the poorest country in the Arab region with a nearly three-year war that has been fueled with massive American, British and French weapons exports. A $3.6 billion arms deal that France signed with Lebanon at the end of 2014 for which the Saudis said they would foot the bill has ended up being diverted to Saudi Arabia for its war in Yemen, according to L’Observatoire des Armements.

French weapons reportedly include Cougar troop-transport helicopters, Mirage fighter jets, drones, and mid-air refueling tanker planes, which have enabled a Saudi bombing campaign that has been condemned for multiple war crimes from the targeting of thousands of civilians. French weapons also include navy corvettes and patrol boats which have helped enforce the Saudi naval blockade on Yemen. That blockade is inflicting starvation and disease on millions of children.

Given the scope of criminal Saudi-French interference in the region, it is therefore a travesty that these two countries are promoting a narrative seeking to impugn Iran and Hezbollah.

But this travesty is being given credence by an uncritical Western media, and by French President Macron donning an image of a progressive, liberal, cultured politician.

When Macron opened the Louvre museum in Abu Dhabi on November 8 he gave a speech in which he eulogized the “beauty of art” being a source of healing power to overcome “discourses of hatred”. He said the museum would “defend beauty, universality, creativity, reason and fraternity”.

This nauseating self-indulgence sounds rather like pretentious French pseudo-philosophy. A load of lofty-sounding cant which seeks to conceal what are brutal French state interests – weapons sales and fueling conflict – as somehow wonderfully benign and enlightened.

The next day, after his “emotive” speech in Abu Dhabi, Macron made a reportedly unscheduled flight to Riyadh to meet the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This was while Lebanese premier Saad Hariri was still in the Saudi capital, apparently being held against his will.

One week later, on November 15, the Da Vinci portrait, ‘Salvator Mundi’, goes on sale at Christie’s auction house in New York. The buyer remained unknown until last week when the New York Times reported that it was Crown Prince MbS who splashed out the $450 million bid. The question is: was the young 32-year-old Saudi despot acting on advice from his cultured French friend Macron, as a way to gain some good international PR? It certainly smacks of orchestration.

Such profligate spending by the Saudi heir comes at an awkward time when he and his ruling clique have arrested some 200 other Saudi royals in a purported crackdown on corruption and graft. The embarrassment seems to have prompted the Saudi rulers to subsequently deny that MbS is the buyer, claiming instead that it was a cousin of the Crown Prince who was acting as an agent for the Louvre in Abu Dhabi to acquire the venerated art piece.

Whatever the truth about the precise buyer of Da Vinci’s ‘Savior of the World’, it seems clear that the French state and the Saudi monarchy are in any case engaged in a cynical image-laundering exercise. They are exploiting high-brow culture and religious sanctity as a way to project an image of civility and beneficence.

Macron in particular is serving as a sophisticated public relations agent for the Saudi rulers, laundering their badly tarnished image. In return, no doubt, Macron is securing lucrative future French arms sales to the Saudis, as well as to the Emiratis. Saudi Arabia is the top export market for France’s weapons industry.

French weapons-dealing with the Saudis is directly responsible for a slaughter of innocents in Yemen and Syria. And at the same time French diplomatic sophistry is covering up for Saudi subversion of Lebanon’s internal affairs. Yet, the Saudis and their French PR President Emmanuel Macron have the audacity to accuse Iran and Hezbollah of regional interference.

That’s the “beauty of art” indeed. The art, that is, of deception.

There has been much discussion surrounding the travel of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to Saudi Arabia on November 4^th. Al-Hariri, who is a Saudi-Lebanese dual national with considerable business and other personal interests in Saudi Arabia apparently complied with a summons to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been shaking up his government as part of what appears to be an attempt to concentrate more power in his own hands being marketed as a campaign against corruption. Al-Hariri was by some accounts met at the Riyadh airport unceremoniously and placed under something like house arrest. He shortly thereafter read a statement – or was it a script? – claiming that he had fled Lebanon in fear that he might be assassinated. He resigned his office and proceeded to denounce Iranian influence over his country, saying that Tehran was seeking to gain control through its dominance of Hezbollah and the acquiescence of the president, a Maronite Christian, Michel Aoun.

Al-Hariri was allowed to leave Saudi Arabia on Saturday, flying to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, but his children and business interests are still in Saudi Arabia, suggesting that his actions will be dictated by Riyadh. Al-Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, was in Beirut on Wednesday for Lebanon’s Independence Day, where he was convinced to hold off on formally submitting his resignation to the government so more discussions could take place. This temporarily avoids a government crisis for the country, where a coalition carefully designed to balance the country’s three major religious constituencies only came together last year.

Al-Hariri’s fall from grace came about because the Saudis were unhappy regarding his reluctance to directly confront Iranian influence, best demonstrated by Hezbollah’s unilateral participation in the civil war in neighboring Syria. The Saudis, who forced through a resolution at the Arab League last weekend declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization, would like to have its political wing out of the government completely, an impossibility given its military and political power. Riyadh is also believed to be working with the Israelis to increase pressure and create a casus belli over Lebanon to justify direct action to isolate Hezbollah. And the ultimate target is Iran with the two countries working together to roll up Iranian influence in the region starting with Lebanon, which will see increasing political and economic pressure from Riyadh while the Israelis will be standing by to intervene militarily, if necessary. 

There are credible reports that Israel and Saudi Arabia, though not bound by any formal agreement, have come to an understanding over how to proceed which will include the abandonment of a number of long established policies. The Palestinians will, in particular, be thrown under the bus yet again and have been warned by Riyadh to cut all ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia will apparently no longer push the Israelis to accommodate Palestinian aspirations for full statehood, which will mean that refugees will have no right to return under any formula for a settlement and Jerusalem will remain wholly in Israeli hands.

It is a major risk for the al-Saud Royal House to appear to be abandoning the highly popular Palestinian cause, so what’s in it for Saudi Arabia? Israeli and U.S. support for the idea that Iran is enemy number one and must be dealt with using the military option trumps anything going on in Ramallah. Leaked Israeli and Saudi diplomatic cables have made clear that Tel Aviv will endorse Riyadh’s genocidal assault and blockade on Yemen and any other comparable actions while the Saudis will in return regard the Palestinian issue as a distraction. They will use their economic leverage to compel the Palestinians to agree to an admittedly unacceptable peace plan brokered by the U.S. and approved of by Israel. The U.S. is reportedly fully on board at this point and it is believed that son-in-law Jared Kushner has been the chief negotiator for the White House.

So what could go wrong? Probably everything as most of the current initiatives being discussed are unattainable. Israel has overwhelming air and sea superiority in the region but it does not have the boots on the ground to control the land it flies over. Nor do the Saudis and Riyadh’s vision of some kind of broad Sunni front taking shape against Iran and the Shi’as is almost certainly little more than wishful thinking. Hezbollah has been preparing for war and it has considerable experience in fighting the Israelis, having driven them out of Lebanon in 2000. It has thousands of missiles of variable quality concealed in bomb-proofed sites and there are reports that there are plans to unleash them in enormous waves if Israel were to strike. Israeli interceptor defenses are formidable, including Iron Dome, but they would be unable to cope with the volume and the devastation could be enormous on both sides.

And there is no sign that the Lebanese, who have placed their army on standby, are eager to avoid a war by cutting a preemptive deal with the Saudis that would involve Israel, so the idea of starting a hot conflict that could somehow be managed which would destroy Hezbollah will likely prove to be a bridge too far for Riyadh and Tel Aviv. And then there are the Palestinians, who just might not be willing, or able, to play ball no matter how much Saudi money is being offered.

All of which could easily leave the United States out on a limb. If it climbs into bed with the Israelis and Saudis and commits to take down Iran it will wind up having to do the hard fighting in a war that could be unwinnable in any conventional sense. Russia will almost certainly be watching closely but will wisely stay out of any conflict as long as its own interests in Syria and Iran are not threatened. If “regime change” in Lebanon to weaken Iran plays out badly, which it will, it means that all parties involved will suffer from another decade of instability in the Middle East.

Then days later, the Saudi-backed Lebanese premier Saad Hariri makes a “surprise” resignation, which wasn’t really a surprise for those who are watching events closely. Hariri made his blustering speech while in the Saudi capital Riyadh, accusing Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of “destabilizing” his country, and even plotting to assassinate him.

Iran denounced Hariri’s antics as “grandstanding” and kowtowing to a political agenda set by Washington and its regional allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, aimed at smearing Iran and Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun, who has fairly good relations with Iran and Hezbollah, was none too pleased either by his prime minister’s farewell announcement televised in the Saudi capital. Aoun reportedly said, rather drily, that he expected Hariri to return to Lebanon soon to explain his resignation while sojourning in a foreign country. The Lebanese president had also rejected claims of Iranian interference in the internal affairs of his country.

Meanwhile, at the same time as those shenanigans, the Saudi rulers launched a putsch against rivals within the kingdom under the cover of an “anti-corruption crackdown”. Dozens of Saudi princes, as well as current and former government ministers, were arrested or sacked in a move which further consolidates the power under King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Western media reports tended to gullibly portray the move at face value, suggesting a cleanup against corruption. Whereas, the reality is that the Saudi regime is concentrating its autocratic power by getting rid of perceived internal rivals. That move will only make the House of Saud even more insecure and precarious in its grip on absolute power.

What this all spells is the kind of scampering by scoundrels and enemies who know the end is nigh. A bit like shuffling the deckchairs as the Titanic is about to go down. It’s a desperate, but futile, bid to avoid the inevitable.

One inevitable reality is that Syria has been salvaged from the US-led axis and its criminal project to overthrow the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The six-year covert war for regime change has been defeated, largely because of the principled intervention by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah in support of the Syrian state.

When Putin visited Tehran last week it was obvious from the interaction with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that Russia-Iran are the new dominant force in the Middle East. The US-led axis and its agenda of asserting control through sectarian conflict and chaos is decidedly on the wane. Syria represents a momentous defeat to the US-led axis, and by contrast a monumental vindication of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah in stabilizing the strategically important region.

Outgoing Lebanese premier Saad Hariri is obviously making a desperate throw of the dice at the Last Chance Saloon. But it’s not his initiative. The pathetic Hariri – who has both Saudi and Lebanese nationality – is following orders from his political handlers in the US axis. By fingering Iran and Hezbollah for allegedly sowing discord, and accusing them of an assassination plot, Hariri is recklessly trying to throw his country back to the fate of potential civil war.

Forty-seven-year-old Saad Hariri, a billionaire businessman whose father Rafic was killed in a car bomb in 2005, is fanning sectarian tensions within Lebanon. His Saudi-funded Future Movement has routinely blamed Hezbollah for his father’s killing 12 years ago. It’s not clear who actually killed Rafic Hariri. Hezbollah has always denied any involvement. The shocking murder of Rafic Hariri could well have been a false-flag event carried out by the CIA and Mossad to smear Hezbollah, incite regional sectarianism and demonize Iran.

Saad Hariri’s dramatic – not to say contrived – resignation as Lebanese premier at the weekend seems to be an attempt at rekindling sectarian passions in Lebanon and is part of a wider gambit to shift the US-led agenda of destabilization in the region.

Having seen its nefarious scheme in Syria come apart, Washington and its regional clients are bidding to move to another theater.

The Trump administration’s disavowal last month of the international nuclear accord with Iran and Washington’s slapping of new bilateral sanctions on the flimsy basis of alleged Iranian terror sponsorship are all consistent with an attempt to open up a new theater of conflict.

Trump is also moving to impose new sanctions on Hezbollah on the basis of alleged terror plots against the US. Given that Hezbollah is part of Lebanon’s coalition government, Washington’s sanctions will fuel social and political tensions within Lebanon.

Once again the small Mediterranean country is being exposed to the dangers of civil war in order to satisfy US, Saudi and Israeli geopolitical ambitions. The scars of Lebanon’s past civil war (1975-90) between religious factions are still raw. Hariri, and his US and Saudi handlers, are deliberately gouging at those wounds.

This is all because the same US-led axis cannot abide the fact that it has suffered an historic defeat in Syria at the hands of the Syrian Arab Army, with the support of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

However, the attempt to shift the conflict elsewhere is not as smart a move as its orchestrators may think. For a start, the region and the world have become much better informed about the nefarious sectarian and terror-sponsoring agenda of Washington and its allies. Clients like Saad Hariri are seen for what they really are. Self-serving puppets who have not an iota of genuine concern for the well-being of their nations.

Not only has Washington become exposed as the fount of conflict in the Middle East, its client regimes have also become nakedly exposed. That would explain why the House of Saud is hastily trying to barricade itself against potential dissent from within. Their days are numbered, and they know it.

Danger is always present, of course. But Russia is entitled nevertheless to take pride of place in being acclaimed for restoring stability and peace across the Middle East.

Russia and its allies in Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are powering ahead to forge a region that will serve first and foremost the interests of its peoples, rather than serving the foreign elite interests of Washington and its client regimes.

Trump was correct that Lebanon is battling the Islamic State and Al Qaeda but is doing so with the assistance of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’a movement with which Hariri’s government maintains a fragile but maturing political accommodation. Trump followed his opening remarks by stating, «Hezbollah is a menace to the Lebanese state, the Lebanese people, and the entire region. The group continues to increase its military arsenal, which threatens to start yet another conflict with Israel, constantly fighting them back. With the support of Iran, the organization is also fueling the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria. Hezbollah likes to portray itself as a defender of Lebanese interests, but it’s very clear that its true interests are those of itself and its sponsor – Iran».

Following his meeting and news conference with Trump, Hariri was forced to correct the record in order not to face a government collapse back in Beirut. Hariri said, «We fight ISIS and al-Qaida. Hezbollah is in the government and part of parliament and we have an understanding with it». There is little doubt that Trump, under the influence of Israeli agents-of-influence like his son-in-law Jared Kushner, was not briefed on Hezbollah’s critical role in supporting the Hariri government, to bring about a Lebanese political crisis. Fortunately, Hezbollah did not fall for the Israeli subterfuge and gimmickry carried out by the White House.

Kushner obviously had help in briefing Trump on the need to attack Hezbollah. Just after Trump’s misguided comments on Hezbollah, US National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster fired an unwanted staff member, Ezra Cohen-Watnick, a leftover from retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn’s regime at the National Security Council. After Flynn was fired by Trump in February 2017, McMaster attempted to oust Cohen-Watnick, who was attempting to use sectors of the Central Intelligence Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency, where the staffer once worked, to overthrow the government of Iran. Israel’s propaganda network within the United States and abroad began beating the tired old «anti-Semite» canard to criticize McMaster and call for his firing by Trump. Immediately, «rumors» began circulating from the White House, most of them originating with the Kushner circle, that Trump was considering relieving McMaster as National Security Adviser and sending him to command US troops in Afghanistan, a move like Adolf Hitler sending rebellious German generals off to the «Russian front».

The Kushner crowd also suggested that Trump was misled about the situation in Lebanon by Hariri, who was accused of colluding with Hezbollah, Lebanese president Michel Aoun – a political ally of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Armed Forces, Directorate of General Security (Lebanese Intelligence) General Abbas Ibrahim, and unnamed Lebanese lobbying organizations in Washington, DC of trying to «sell» a «pro-Iran order» in Lebanon and Syria. Only seasoned cabalists who make up the Israel Lobby, itself possessing a rich history of advancing actual conspiracies, could concoct such an intricate fictional conspiracy theory to complement their hysterical rhetoric concerning Lebanon.

With Cohen-Watnick out at the National Security Council and Trump’s new chief of staff, retired Marine General John Kelly, attempting to limit Kushner’s access to the Oval Office and involvement with crucial Middle East policy decisions, perhaps Trump can be educated about Israel’s documented military, logistical, and intelligence support for the Sunni jihadist groups in Syria that have been battling against the Syrian Army and volunteers from Hezbollah and Iran. However, Trump has been found loathe to listen to advice from anyone who commands more knowledge of international affairs than himself, which may be anyone possessing a Bachelor’s degree in political science or history.

Trump’s siding with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a sanctions showdown with Qatar, engineered by Abu Dhabi’s computer hacking of the Qatar News Agency, is a case in point. The entire Qatar episode appears to have been engineered by Kushner, who was miffed after Qatar rejected his request for a $500 million investment in the failing Kushner office building at 666 Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, and the UAE’s pro-Israel and anti-Qatar ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba. Trump found it preferable to heed the advice of Kushner and the Saudis and Emiratis over that provided by McMaster and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Trump was obviously operating from an outdated neo-conservative playbook when he met with Hariri. True, Hariri has long been considered a Sunni pro-Saudi political power in Beirut. But, Hariri is prime minister as the result of a carefully-negotiated power sharing agreement that saw Aoun become president, Hariri become prime minister, and Hezbollah backing the national unity arrangement. While Trump fails to meet the most minimum degree of a working knowledge of international politics, the same does not hold true for operatives like Kushner and his allies in the White House. It is likely that these pro-Israeli elements were trying to engineer a political crisis in Lebanon, an event that would have worked in Israel’s favor.

Hezbollah, which has scored impressive military successes against Israeli military forces and which has managed to harden its telecommunications systems from Israeli eavesdropping, did not take Kushner’s bait. Hariri has publicly recognized and lauded Hezbollah’s role in militarily defeating Al Qaeda and Islamic State jihadist forces on Lebanon’s northern border, calling it a «big achievement». Hariri stated, «We have our opinion and Hezbollah has its opinion, but in the end, we met on a consensus that concerns the Lebanese people for the [welfare of the] Lebanese economy, security and stability». Hezbollah leader Nasrallah also held back from falling into the Israeli and Wahhabist trap. Rather than denounce Trump for his ill-informed comments on Hezbollah, Nasrallah merely said he would withhold comment to not embarrass Hariri and his entourage. The words of Hariri and the «no comment» by Nasrallah were irritants to the Israelis and their Wahhabist allies in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, who were hoping to upset the political apple cart in Beirut.

For years, the Israelis and Saudis have attempted to force a Sunni radical government on Lebanon. Both countries’ intelligence services had their fingerprints on the November 2005 car bombing assassination in Beirut of Hariri’s father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. This was borne out by a United Nations panel headed by former Canadian prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, which concluded that Rafik Hariri was assassinated by a «criminal network», not by Syrian intelligence or Hezbollah as proffered by the neo-conservative propaganda mill operating out of Washington, DC and Jerusalem.

In fact, Lebanese intelligence ascertained that the assassination of Hariri and twenty-two other persons was carried out by rogue Syrian, Druze, and Palestinian intelligence operatives in Lebanon who were in the pay of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service. The entire operation was designed to besmirch Hezbollah and Syria and their Lebanese Christian allies. The Israelis were fishing for a casus belli to justify a Western military attack on Syria. War with Syria would be put off until the Barack Obama administration’s ill-fated decision to support «Arab Spring» uprisings throughout the secular Arab world. Mr. Trump, knowingly or unknowingly, attempted to set off a political time bomb in Lebanon with his comments about Hezbollah. Lebanese politics has matured greatly since 2005 and neither Hezbollah, Hariri, Aoun, or other legitimate Lebanese political voices will fall again for the gimmickry engineered in Jerusalem, Riyadh, and the Israeli-directed think tanks in Washington.